Moving Into Practice by JD Hunt, University of Calgary PROCESSUS Second International Colloquium Toronto ON, Canada June 2005

Overview Introduction Topic: Taking PROCESSUS results into practice Motivations Examples Commercial Movement Micro-simulation Stop Duration Modelling Growing Tours and Hybrid Tours PECAS Theoretical Structure Conclusions

Introduction How PROCESSUS work has moved into practice (PRACTUS?) Holy Grail: Theoretical advances that Have practical implications Make things easier Increase fidelity and accuracy

Introduction Practical interaction important Have potential impacts Directed to specific problems Scheduling discipline Funding and data collection Engineering is Applied Science

Introduction Practical interaction important - essential Have potential impacts Directed to specific problems Scheduling discipline Funding and data collection Engineering is Applied Science

Examples Commercial Movement Micro-simulation Calgary, Ohio, Los Angeles Stop Duration Modelling Calgary, Edmonton Growing Tours and Hybrid Tours Calgary, Edmonton PECAS Theoretical Structure Integrated and Connected Spatial Economics Behavioural Space Development Oregon, Sacramento, Edmonton, Baltimore, Alberta, Ohio

Examples Commercial Movement Micro-simulation Calgary, Ohio, Los Angeles Stop Duration Modelling Calgary, Edmonton Growing Tours and Hybrid Tours Calgary, Edmonton PECAS Theoretical Structure Integrated and Connected Spatial Economics Behavioural Space Development Oregon, Sacramento, Edmonton, Baltimore, Alberta, Ohio

Commercial Vehicle Movements Vehicles operated for commercial purposes As opposed to household, personal movements Includes ‘non-commercial’ non-household purposes (government, not-for-profit) Comprise 10-15% of total urban traffic

Some Examples Commercial Hauling freight for a company Service workers visiting clients Sales meetings Mail Delivering parcels Personal Travel to work Travel to school Shopping Leisure trips Social visits

Data 2001 Commercial Movement Study All commercial movements Not just freight Not just trucks 3,100 establishments in Calgary 4,300 establishments in Edmonton 24 hour stop diary Firmographics Employment structure Vehicle fleet

Tour-based Micro-simulation Considers tours rather than individual trips Micro-simulation of each tour

Establishment Client

Establishment Client

Tour-based Micro-simulation Considers tours rather than individual trips Micro-simulation of each tour Uses additional information for decisions Full-tour conditions Location of establishment (tour-base) Work-shift influences Simulates each trip as tour progresses Closer to reality A number of clients scattered throughout city Efficient businesses will service them in tours

Micro-simulation Process Tour Generation Tour Start Vehicle and Tour Purpose Next Stop Purpose Next Stop Location Stop Duration Iterative

Establishment Client Lunch Return to Establishment Other Goods / Service

Stop Duration Private Service - Service - Light

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle & Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 7:22 AM Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 7:22 AM Service stop Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 9:48 AM Service, 211 (Stampede) Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 9:48 AM Service, 211 (Stampede) Service stop Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 11:21 AM Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 11:21 AM Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other stop Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 12:13 PM Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 12:13 PM Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service stop Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 4:20 PM Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service, 2312 (North Hill Mall) Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: 4:20 PM Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service, 2312 (North Hill Mall) Return to establishment Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service, 2312 (North Hill Mall) Return to establishment, 340 Stop Duration

Micro-simulation Process Start Time Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle and Tour Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) AM Peak Light vehicle; service tour Current time: Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service, 2312 (North Hill Mall) Return to establishment, 340 Tour starting in zone 2604 (NW residential) Stop Duration

Operation PTM (EMME/2) Commercial Movements Model (micro-simulation) Updated travel times Run of modelRun of process Updated commercial vehicle trip tables Updated personal trip tables Base Information Re-assignment of trip tables

Model network loading of light vehicle flows

Model network loading of heavy vehicle flows less in CBD; more in industrial areas little on non- truck routes

Results Being used for practical policy analysis A number of demonstration policy tests considered here Five scenarios: Base case Increased cost of travel (per km) Increased travel time Removed truck route restrictions Instituted large toll for stops in CBD

Overall proportion of base

VKT proportion of base

Truck Routes Removed Scenario vs. Base Case

Calgary Conclusions Tour-based micro-simulation approach used here Successful Provides direct representation of trip-chaining impacts Includes service delivery Well beyond ‘freight only’ and ‘large heavy vehicle’ limitations Useful planning tool for Including commercial movements and their impacts on system Assessing impacts of transportation policy and infrastructure development on commercial sectors

Calgary Acknowledgements Funding City of Calgary City of Edmonton Province of Alberta SSHRC - MCRI Participation Kevin Stefan, Karen Tsang Ali Farhan, Dianne Atkins, Paul McMillan Alan Brownlee, Bob Ishani, Ian Bakker, John Abraham

Examples Commercial Movement Micro-simulation Calgary, Ohio, Los Angeles Stop Duration Modelling Calgary, Edmonton Growing Tours and Hybrid Tours Calgary, Edmonton PECAS Theoretical Structure Integrated and Connected Spatial Economics Behavioural Space Development Oregon, Sacramento, Edmonton, Baltimore, Alberta, Ohio

P roduction E xchange C onsumption A llocation S ystem

year tyear t+1 region-wide economic activity interactions commercial movements household travel transport networks transport times and costs space development space prices activity locations and interactions trip patterns activity quantities activity benefits transport policy economic trends economic policy land use policy space changes region-wide economic activity interactions commercial movements household travel transport networks activity locations and interactions trip patterns activity quantities Economic Model PECAS Travel Model transport impacts land consumption activity benefits

$ $$ $ $ $ $ $$ $ $ $ $ $ $$ $ $ $ Producing Sectors Goods, Services, Labour and Space Consuming Sectors $ $ $$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Economic Flows

total consumption total production total production total production buying allocation process commodity flows exchange zone exchange zone exchange zone selling allocation process Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption

total consumption total production total production total production buying allocation process commodity flows exchange zone exchange zone exchange zone selling allocation process Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption ‘Integrated’ and ‘Connected’

composite utility of technology for activity a at an activity location zone z: Location Specific Utility of Technology CUTech a,z = ( 1/ p,a ) · ln (  p  P exp ( p,a · UTech a,z,p ) ) with: UTech a,z,p =  prod,a · UProd a,p,z +  cons,a · UCons c,p,z + UTechRef a,p UCons a,p,z =  c  C R a,c,p ·  r,a,c,p · CUBuy c,a,z UProd a,p,z =  c  C M a,c,p ·  m,a,c,p · CUSell c,a,z -combines vector of accessibilities into single – SINGLE – ‘composite utility of technology’ value, - each accessibility in vector associated with a given commodity produced or consumed, combination consistent with technology

composite utility of technology for activity a at an activity location zone z: Location Specific Utility of Technology CUTech a,z = ( 1/ p,a ) · ln (  p  P exp ( p,a · UTech a,z,p ) ) with: UTech a,z,p =  prod,a · UProd a,p,z +  cons,a · UCons c,p,z + UTechRef a,p UCons a,p,z =  c  C R a,c,p ·  r,a,c,p · CUBuy c,a,z UProd a,p,z =  c  C M a,c,p ·  m,a,c,p · CUSell c,a,z -combines vector of accessibilities into single – SINGLE – ‘composite utility of technology’ value, - each accessibility in vector associated with a given commodity produced or consumed, combination consistent with technology

Examples in Oregon Initial Model Application

US 97 US 385 New Eastern Oregon Freeway Land use growth/shift resulting from new freeway

US 97 US 385 New Eastern Oregon Freeway Land use growth/shift resulting from new freeway

US 97 US 385 New Eastern Oregon Freeway Land use growth/shift resulting from new freeway

* Medium and high crack density Local Bridges State Bridges Ford’s Bridge Cole’s Bridge Sauvie Island Bridge McKenzie/Willamette River Bridges Weight Limited Bridge Cracked Bridge Oregon Bridge Options Study Economic Equity Impacts Broadened Policy Discussion

Oregon Bridge Options Study

Regional Production Relative to Current Mobility Option

Oregon Bridge Options Study Resulting Staged Approach

Willamette Valley Forum (Oregon) Highway Expansion High Speed Transit VMT TaxLess Land Supply HH Growth Compared to Reference Case Many Less Than RC Same as RC Many More Than RC Compared land use forecasts under various policies Collaborative visioning

Oregon Acknowledgements Funding State of Oregon United States Federal Highway Administration Participation John Abraham Rick Donnelly, Tara Weidner, Christi Willisden, Jim Hicks, Carl Batten, Pat Costinett, Susan Hendricks, Bill Davidson, Tim Heier, Joel Freedman, Larry Conrad, Tracey Lauritsen, Paul Waddell Bill Upton, Brian Gregor

Conclusions PROCESSUS is contributing to PRACTICE Some theoretical advances with large practical implications Large infrastructure investments Some Holy Grails Investment that pays off in future Still too much reliance on choice models More simple rule-based systems Faster computations Emergent behaviour Role for PROCESSUS