IRELAND: MIGRATION AND EU ENLARGEMENT Kevin Quinn Manager, International Employment Services FAS Ireland Keflavic 30 th May 2008

Irish Employment

Irish Economic Facts GDP (2007)€185bn GDP Growth (2007)5.3% GDP per Capita (2007)€42,581 ($64k) Irish GDP per Capita as % of EU 142% Inflation (2007)4.9% Current Account Deficit (2007)5.9% of GDP Population (2007) 4.3 million Average Full Time Wage (2007) €764 National Minimum Wage (July 2007) €8.65 per hour Weekly Unemployment All.(Jan 2008) € Adult Dependent (Jan 2008) €131.30

Implications for Eures Ireland,implications for Eures, Europe Still a shortage of key workers

Change in Socio-Economic Indicators %64%Dependency rate 4.5%12.2%Unemployment rate 101,000177,000Unemployment 69%47%Employment rate 2.1m1.28mEmployment 3.7m2.7mPopulation Aged m3.6mPopulation

Employment Growth

Labour Force Growth Decomposed

To Twenty-five….and then? How far east?

To Twenty-five….and then? How far east?

Post-enlargement migration trend Peak

Minimum Monthly Salary in the EU

Sectoral Employment Growth by Nationality Since Enlargement

Unemployment Rising Rapidly

Labour demand has been strong

…..but shortages have been bearable

…..but employers increasingly pessimistic

Employment Growth

Forecast Agriculture Construction Manufacturing Services1,4241,4701,473 Total Employment2,1172,1412,120 Unemployed Labour Force2,2172,2652,270 Net Immigration65250 Unemployment Rate4.5%5.5%6.6%

Implications for Eures, Ireland. Implications for Eures, Europe. S killed available workforce Still a shortage(20,000) key workers We brought them over, we have a responsibility Eures must be more proactive on policy We have a system, lets use it!

Conclusions Irish Labour Market has been the envy of Europe Irish Labour Market has been the envy of Europe There has also been cyclical variation There has also been cyclical variation Second wave of the boom is coming to an end Second wave of the boom is coming to an end Unemployment will depend on labour supply response Unemployment will depend on labour supply response Volatility makes medium-term prospects uncertain Volatility makes medium-term prospects uncertain Some groups will be particularly vulnerable Some groups will be particularly vulnerable

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