BUFKIT for Balloonists Jay Trobec, Ph.D. KELOLAND TV Sioux Falls, SD jaytrobec.com.

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Presentation transcript:

BUFKIT for Balloonists Jay Trobec, Ph.D. KELOLAND TV Sioux Falls, SD jaytrobec.com

Questions we will answer How do I install the free software on my computer? What is a computer model? What does BUFKIT tell us about… – Winds aloft? – Temperatures? – Inversions? – Fog/Precipitation forecasting?

How do I install it on my computer?

Computer models Give us an approximation of the expected state of the atmosphere They do not “forecast” the weather – interpretation is required Three models are beneficial to balloonists, and can be displayed with BUFKIT software – NAM (North American Mesoscale) – GFS3 (Global Forecast System) – RUC (Rapid Update Cycle)

BUFKIT data

BUFKIT visual display

NAM (also called the WRF) Model Created at 0z (6 pm CST), 6z (midnight CST), 12z (6 am CST), and 18z (noon CST) 12 km resolution 1 hr increments 84 hrs

GFS Model Created at 0z (6 pm CST), 6z (midnight CST), 12z (6 am CST), and 18z (noon CST) 0.5 deg lat/lon 3 hr increments 180 hrs

RUC (also called RAP or HRRR) Model Created every hour 13 km resolution 18 hrs

BUFKIT Temperature/Wind Display

BUFKIT Overview Wind Display

Overview Clouds Display Sky Box Plotted Implied none Clear Single Cross Hatched Few Double Cross Hatched Scattered Gray Broken White Overcast

Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) Decrease of temperature with altitude in a stationary atmosphere 0.5°C/100 meters 3.5°F /1000 feet 1500 ft: 54.8° 1000 ft: ft: 56.5° 500 ft: ft: 58.3° Ground: 60°

Subsidence, sinking air under High pressure Temperature Inversion Thin layer in the atmosphere in which air temperature increases with height Caused by: Warm Fronts or Cold Fronts

Subsidence Inversion

Radiational Inversion

Effects of Inversion Speed of ascent slows when rising through subsidence layer

Effects of Inversion Speed of descent slows when descending through layer

Effects of Inversion Winds often have different directions/speeds above and below an inversion

Inversion display on BUFKIT

Fog forecasting BUFKIT utilizes “crossover temperature” technique developed by UPS Also assesses change in humidity with height, and atmospheric stability Technique is designed for radiational fog, not advection or other types of fog