Belarus Gloomy Autumn Prof. Dr. Oleg Manaev Washington, D.C. October 26, 2011

Economy 1. How did your financial state change over past three months? % Options Improved Did not change Became worse DA/NA1.81.2

2. In your opinion, how will socio-economic situation in Belarus change in next few years? % Options Improved Did not change Became worse DA/NA Do you think Belarusian economy is in a crisis?Options%Yes87.6 No8.0 DA/NA4.4

4. Chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, Piotr Prokopovich, resigned recently. To which extend, you think, he is to blame for this years economic crisis in Belarus? Options% He is the main cause of the crisis 7.5 He is to blame to some extend but other authorities bare significant fault 40.1 There is some his fault but independent circumstances are more to blame then he is 26.3 He has no fault in it 16.0 DA/NA10.1

5. Generally speaking, do things in Belarus go in right or wrong direction? % Options In right direction In wrong direction DA/NA

President 1. Who is to blame for current economic crisis in Belarus? (no more than three answers)% Options President Government USA Europe12.0 Parliament-11.9 The people Russia Opposition World financial crisis Exploiters16.6- DA/NA

2. Do you think that after presidential elections rating of Alexander Lukashenko (readiness of people to vote for him in next elections) has increased or decreased? % Option Increased Remained the same Decreased DA/NA7.34.1

3. Do you trust the President? % Options Trust Distrust DA/NA

Options Life will improve Life will remain the same Life will get worse DA/NA Some people think that life will improve after Lukashenko leaves; others think that it will get worse. What do you think? %

5. If presidential elections were to take place tomorrow, who would you vote for? (open question) % Option Alexander Lukashenko Vladimir Neklyaev Andrei Sannikov Ales Mikhalevich Yaroslav Romanchuk Vitaly Rymashevsky Other politician (from 9 to 13 names, less than 1% each) Other response DA/NA

6. For whom would you vote if the Presidential election take place tomorrow, and there would be the following candidates in the ballot? Options For Alexander Lukashenko For Vladimir Neklyaev For another candidate For no one DA/NA

Domestic politics 1. In which direction is political life in Belarus developing? Options0911 Development of democracy 11.4 Restoration of the old Soviet orders 17.6 Formation of authoritarianism, dictatorship 33.7 Growth of chaos, anarchy, threats of coup 23.3 DA/NA14.0

2. Recently Anatoly Rubinov, Chairman of the Soviet of the Republic of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus, expressed an opinion that Republican public association Belaiya Rus, which supports Belarusian authorities, could transform into a political party. Are you ready to join such party? ? Options%Yes4.2 No82.6 DA/NA13.2

3. The case of April 11th explosions in Minsk subway went to court recently. According to the investigation, the crime was committed by a single terrorist, and there was nobody behind it. Do you believe this version? Option% Yes, I believe it 21.2 They committed the crime but somebody ordered it 32.4 No, the crime was committed by other people 36.7 DA/NA9.7

4. Do you personally feel protected by the law? 5. If you dont feel protected, explain why (more than one option possible) Option% Because the law is being changed constantly 29.2 Because laws are interpreted very freely by those in power 28.4 Because the law is not written for everyone – too many people now feel like they are above the law 24.0 Corruption is everywhere. I cant hope for a fair and objective consideration of my case in court 21.6 People do not have means to influence authorities 15.4 DA/NA0.5 Option%Yes38.5 No53.4 DA/NA8.1

6. By the law, while performing tasks in protection of citizens, society and the state, law enforcement officers can use physical force and special tools, if other ways of performing the tasks seem inapplicable. Have you or people you know experienced UNLAWFUL VIOLENCE by law enforcement officers? Option%Yes21.4 No78.3 DA/NA0.3

7. Do you think the issue of unlawful violence by law enforcement exists? Option% Yes, it is a serious issue 35.6 A few episodes take place here and there but it couldnt be considered a serious issue 42.1 No, there is no such issue 21.9 DA/NA0.4

8. If you answered yes to the previous question, why do you think such violations take place? Option% To force people to testify 32.8 For extortion 27.6 For the sake of bullying, they enjoy cruelty 12.5 To scare and discourage appeals against their unlawful behavior 11.5 From personal hostility, political, racial motives 11.1 Other1.1

9. Who would you more likely expect violence from - criminals or law enforcement? Option% I fear criminals more I fear criminals more47.9 I fear law enforcement more 10.4 I equally fear both 31.6 I do not fear anyone 9.6 DA/NA0.5

10. Do you think the state should significantly strengthen the fight against arbitrariness and violence by law enforcement? Option% Yes, some significant steps should be taken 38.4 The state is fighting it actively, such initiative should be continued 31.2 The steps taken by the state resolved the issue 17.6 DA/NA12.8

Protest potential 1. Would you consider yourself being in opposition to the authorities? % Option Yes No DA/NA

2. Which initiatives of Belarusian politicians do you support? Option% Proposing a dialogue to the authorities for a joint search for crisis recovery options 39.5 Demanding imposition of sanctions against Belarusian authorities 34.6 Demanding immediate resignation from Alexander Lukashenko 19.8 Demanding a Nation Assembly to discuss the current situation 4.4 DA.NA13.0

3. Regular protests against current authorities policies, in which people expressed their discontent by keeping silent and applauding, called Revolution through social networks took place in many Belarusian cities last June-July. Did you hear about such protests? Option%Yes70.8 No27.0 DA/NA2.2

4. How do you feel about these protests? Option%Approve37.4 Indifferent33.6 Disprove19.2 DA/NA9.8

5. Dynamics of readiness to participate in public protests, % 5. Dynamics of readiness to participate in public protests, % Option Rallies, demonstrations, pickets Strikes Hunger strikes Armed struggle

6. Alternative candidates ratings among those who consider or not consider themselves being in opposition to the authorities % OptionsConsiderNotDA/NANeklyaev21.4 Sannikov16.4 Mihalevich5.2 Rymashevski2.1 Statkevich1.4 Romanchuk1.2 Tereshchenko0.2 Uss0 Kostusev Milinkevich2.8 Kozulin2.1 Posnyak0.7 DA/NA/Will not vote 40.7

7. Groups among those who consider or not consider themselves being in opposition % (read by lines) OptionsConsiderNotDA/NA Financial state – improved worsened - worsened Economy in crisis – no yes - yes Country development – right wrong - wrong Blamed President in crisis Trust to President – yes no - no Life after Lukashenko – worse better - better Political development – dictatorship chaos - chaos Feel protected by the law – yes no - no

8 Groups among those who would vote at the new Presidential election for: % (read by lines) Option Lukashenko NeklyaOtherNoneD/NA Financial state–improved worsened worsened Economy in crisis–yes no no Country development–right wrong wrong Political development – democracy former Soviet orders dictatorship chaos

9. Belarusian authorities claim that several opposition organizations and certain opposition leaders are financially supported form abroad. What do you think about it ? Option% It is absolutely fine 49.5 It is unacceptable 33.7 DA/NA16.8

10. Below is a list of possible ways in which foreign countries and world community can help Belarusian non-state civil initiatives and organizations. Which ones would you consider acceptable from moral, political and other perspectives? Option Accep- table Unaccep- table DA/NA Educational support (seminars, conferences in Belarus and abroad) Technologic support (computers, copiers, fax machines, printers and other equipment) Humanitarian aid (food, medicine, clothing, etc) Financial support Moral and political support (official statements, newspapers, magazines, bulletins, etc), discussions with Belarusian officials, media campaigns Informational support (providing newspapers, magazines, bulletins, etc Various support Various supportа –

Conclusions: There are no evidence of worsening of economic feeling among Belarusians. Taking in mind economic indicators in a third quarter were not improved (increasing wages and social benefits, decreasing prices), it means strengthening of a «negative adaptation» mechanism when people try to meet challenges by reducing their needs and expectations. However, there are signs of growing public dissatisfaction: for the first time people blamed mostly the President for current economic crisis in the country. However, there are signs of growing public dissatisfaction: for the first time people blamed mostly the President for current economic crisis in the country. Presidents electoral rating during nine months has dropped in 2.5 times, and got a minimal level since IISEPS monitoring ever (a previous minimum was 26.2% in March 2003). Presidents electoral rating during nine months has dropped in 2.5 times, and got a minimal level since IISEPS monitoring ever (a previous minimum was 26.2% in March 2003). However, one cant say about maturing bunches of angry because a real readiness for participating in public protests remains the same level as a decade ago. Most of Belarusians are gloomy today rather than angry. However, one cant say about maturing bunches of angry because a real readiness for participating in public protests remains the same level as a decade ago. Most of Belarusians are gloomy today rather than angry. Most part of Belarusians who became dissatisfied with their economic state and blamed Lukasheko should not be considered as opposition to him and his rule. Their basic values (state protectionism) remain, the crisis violated their interests but not values. Therefore they do not share oppositional values, and do not support opposition. It means in case of economic improvement most of them return to their political positions (support or loyalty to the regime). Most part of Belarusians who became dissatisfied with their economic state and blamed Lukasheko should not be considered as opposition to him and his rule. Their basic values (state protectionism) remain, the crisis violated their interests but not values. Therefore they do not share oppositional values, and do not support opposition. It means in case of economic improvement most of them return to their political positions (support or loyalty to the regime).

General summary: Will a gloomy autumn transform to a hot one as opposition promised? Unlikely, because the BYR free exchange rate (the poll was conducted before it was introduced) will to some extend reduce public irritations accumulated during spring and summer. In case of Lukashenko within some months find financial resources ($ 3-5 bln), probably the situation will be smoothing. If not – the social-economic crisis could transform in a political one.