Developing an Integrated Urban Model for a Small to Medium Sized MPO Michael J. Clay, Ph.D. & Kimberly Mullins, Graduate Student Community Planning Program Auburn University

2 Transportation Planning Process Requires “land use” forecast No method is without significant effort Current method uses information but does not return any information Image from the ITE’s Transportation Planning Handbook, pg.97

3 Planning Context “There is a dynamic relationship between transportation and land use, as each influences the other.” (ITE, Transportation Planning Handbook, 2 nd Edition, pg. 399)

4 Planning Context

5 Integrated Models in Use or Development Salt Lake City, UT Sacramento, CA Portland, OR Seattle, WA Denver, CO Houston, TX Dallas, TX San Antonio, TX Detroit, MI Baltimore, MD Phoenix, AZ Ohio DOT Oregon DOT California DOT Montgomery, AL

6 Integrated Models: What are they?

7 Economic and land use choices of interest LEVEL 1: Location choice LEVEL 2: Technology Choice LEVEL 3: Buying & Selling Exchange Choice Exchange locations

8 Land Use Outputs

9 Case Study  Montgomery, Alabama MPO  Montgomery, Autauga, Elmore Counties  Population: 333,000  58% White, 42% Black  2.5 Average Household Size  $38,000 Median family income  Metropolitan Planning Organization  One full-time transportation planner  Budget: $400,000 annually  Existing, 3-step Travel Demand Model  Some GIS data already created * Study Area Alabama

10 Basics of the Study Funding: MPO has put up $150,000 for the first year MPO has put up $150,000 for the first year Auburn University has put up $50,000 of “in kind” contribution Auburn University has put up $50,000 of “in kind” contributionSchedule Estimated 2 to 3 years to finish the project Estimated 2 to 3 years to finish the project Year 1 will produce a prototype, demonstration model calibrated with local data Year 1 will produce a prototype, demonstration model calibrated with local data Year 2 will further improve the data and model calibration Year 2 will further improve the data and model calibration Year 3 will develop a graphic user interface (GUI) for the PECAS model Year 3 will develop a graphic user interface (GUI) for the PECAS model

11 Methods  Gathered information  GIS Files  TAZ boundary  Zoning  Land use  Transportation Network  MPO Boundary  Municipal Boundaries  Employment Centers  Parks  Airport locations  Building Footprints  Retail Employment  Rivers/Lakes/Streams  School locations  Data Files  Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)  InfoUSA Employment Information  Building Permit data  PUMS data  Rent Prices by type by zone

12 GIS Data Autauga Elmore Montgomery

13 Progress to Date Currently we have an operational Activity Allocation Model integrated with the Space Development Model Integration with travel demand model is currently done by hand—soon to be automated Current model runs from base year of 2000 to 2010

14 Future Steps Further calibrate the model with better data—data improvements are on-going Automate integration between PECAS and MPO travel demand model Hold developer conference to get actual building cost data—currently have decent estimates from building professionals Create a mode share model for the local travel demand model

Thank you