1. The Path to Integrated Models in California
NYMTC
May 1, 2008
Mike McCoy
Information Center for the Environment
U.C. Davis

2. 2005 Review California MPO Practice and Needs

4. Criteria Credibility: Believability Validity Usability:
Usability:
Level of Geography
Temporal Detail
Model Runtime
Expertise Required
Policy Relevance
Link-Ability
Open Code
Free Software
Accessible to Public
Output Presentation
Feasibility:
Costs ($)
Costs (FTE-staff)
Data Needs
Time to Develop

5. Recommendations
The four large MPOs (SCAG, MTC/ABAG, SANDAG, and SACOG) strongly consider implementing an integrated economic model in the near future.
Medium-sized MPOs and RTPAs in California consider implementing simpler urban models, such as PLACES, What If?, UPlan, and others.
Data sharing should be instituted among MPOs, RTPAs, and Caltrans (much like NYMTC Strategic Data Coordination Effort).
Caltrans should consider implementing a statewide integrated interregional urban model.

6. Adapted from Miller, Kriger, Hunt – TCRP 1998
The Path to Integrated Modeling
Travel Models
Land Use Models
Trip-Based Models
Tour
Activity
Standard
Enhanced
Complex
Aggregate
Simulation
Stand Alone
None
Judgement
Fresno
San Joaquin 
Boise
New Hampshire
San Francisco County
Policy+Trends Allocation
SACOG
Travel
Model
1996
Edmonton
Conn-ected
Rule-Based Allocation
Merced Co.  UPlan
SACOG Travel Model
+ PLACES
2004
Amador Calveras Alpine UPlan  
Philly.  UPlan
Equilibrium Allocation (e.g. DRAM)
 San Diego
Puget Sound
Atlanta
Santiago
Portland
Market-Based
Allocation
Integ-rated
Aggregate Economic
(Input/Output)
SACOG MEPLAN2004
London
PECAS
2005
Portland and Oregon Statewide
2008
Disaggregate Economic Microsim-ulation
NYMTC
ABAG/
MTC
ABAG/
MTC
We did not recommend that everyone just start tomorrow and reach into their wallets and hit the “go” button.
What we do recommend is that institutions move along a path of continuous improvement.
Note Path of ABAG/MTC
NYMTC seems to be about here with a very sophisticated travel model and a land model that is a little hard to classify but has elements of an equilibrium model (residential/job/travel-side) and a rule based model (basic economy floorspace/industry). Some have referred to it as a “housing allocation model.”
ABAG/
MTC

7. Results/Status
SACOG calibrating PECAS, SANDAG developing PECAS, SCAG at RFP stage for integrated economic model, ABAG assembling data for integrated economic model
18 Medium-sized MPO/RTPAs have installed and are using UPlan integrated with their travel models.
Data sharing begun between SCAG, SANDAG, ABAG and SACOG. Center for data management being given funding consideration by State
First phase of statewide demonstration interregional PECAS model finished in June Second phase demonstration PECAS model complete June First production PECAS model expected in June 2010
Adoption by users since report publication

8. Why Did These Users Adopt?
Land Use Affects Travel Demand & Travel Facilities Affect Land Use and They All Affect the Economy
But also better forecasts of all kinds as
transport models are better informed,
land use models improve and
economic models become more spatially disaggregate

9. Moreover
1. These models allow us to test a wide variety of policy, planning and investment alternatives
2. They create a consistent set of economic rules and criteria to test the alternatives.
3. They respond to a wide variety of statutes requiring more accurate forecasts than in the past.

10. Most Importantly It’s About the 3 E’s
Economic benefits for the state and its counties
Equity: benefits for households by income
Environmental
Air quality and GHG production
Conversion of habitats and ag lands

11. How Do The Models Do This? The SACOG Case
This is a story of a public involvement process resulting in a preferred regional plan with preferred regional development nodes – and the planners that were charged with figuring out how to make it happen -
They realized that the “if you zone it they will come” approach to land use was not going to work.
They would need a set of infrastructure investments and policy tools that would increase the likelihood that the market would “see” developing in this pattern to be the best market choice for location selection, business establishment and residential choice.
This is a lesson that is particularly applicable to NYMTC and it regional growth strategy.

12. $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Goods, Services, Labor and Space
Producing Sectors $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Economic Flows
To figure this out you need to know a lot about your regional economy.
Fortunately there are a lot of data sources that inform our understanding of the production and consumption of goods and services and space and we can employ those to see the pattern of current exchange.
We can also study the likely causes of the current arrangement and the drivers that might initiate a future arrangement $ $ $ $ $ $
Consuming Sectors $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

13. Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption
total
consumption
buying allocation
process
exchange
zone
exchange
zone
exchange
zone
What we want to know for each industry sector is
who consumes what in the production of goods and services and
where do they go to get it?
Or the converse, who produces what and where do they go to sell it?
selling allocation
process
total
production
total
production
total
production

14. 1: 2: 3: Economic Interactions: Production - Exchange - Consumption
allocating production activity to zones
production allocation
allocating production to commodities
allocating consumption to commodities 2:
technology selection
Most of you are familiar with logit models.
That’s what you have in your transport decisions and in a way it is no different here.
A wide variety of factors affect the buying and selling decision at each location.
The biggest one, almost without fail, is accessibility. So the model looks at the advantages that your transport systems confer on a wide range of businesses and homes. 3:
allocating produced commodities to selling locations
selling allocations
buying allocations
allocating consumed commodities to buying locations
3-level nested logit model

15. Introduction: PECAS Zones
Production
Location
Consumption
Location
exchange
zone
So as output we end up with production locations, exchange locations and consumption locations for all of our goods and services (48 industry classes in Calif) under a given set of infrastructure investments and policies.
And those production, exchange and consumption activities will require floorspace.
And the model will supply that floorspace in the zones where these activities occur
Consumption
Location

16. Introduction: Hypothetical Proposed Road
So what happens next is experimenting with a variety of infrastructure and policy alternatives that will drive the market toward development in the agreed upon desired areas.
For example – if we want to get more commercial floorspace in Modesto let’s say we figure if we put in a major connector to the South Bay Area we might get that.

17. Without Road 2050 : Commercial Floorspace per Zone % Increase
So we look at a base case for an out year without the road and without the road most of the development is going to the South Bay area – and we find that with the road

18. With Road 2050 : Commercial Floorspace per Zone % Increase
It’s even worse because the economy of agglomeration attracts even more business to where there is already like business. We save several $10’s of billions on a road that would not accomplish our goal. We realize that we need to look for another path if we are going to achieve our desired goal. That’s the power of this model. It goes beyond our wishes and looks for forces to achieve them.

19. Now how will this help conform to statute?
SAFETEA-LU 4 objectives
Increase mobility and economic development
Decrease pollution and Green House Gasses
Context sensitive planning
Scenario Planning
Besides important clues about location choices and economic responses - -

20. How will this help conform to statute?
Clean Air Act
GHG Measures
Clean Water Act
Runoff
Civil Rights Act
Environmental Justice
Executive Order 12898
FESA
Conversion of habitat for listed species
Especially important here is the ability to look at the equity of our proposals for all income classes in society.
Executive Order notes:
“To avoid, minimize, or mitigate disproportionately high and adverse human health or
environmental effects, including social and economic effects, on minority and lowincome
populations.”

21. What Did It Cost Them: Staff
Forecast Program Manager
Transportation Modeler
Land-Use Modeler
Regional Economist
Socio-Economic (Demographic) Modeler
Programmer (Advanced)
You have my handout detailing the skills of these positions and I know from your web sites that you have most of these already. Of course the people doing these things already have other jobs so I’m not suggesting you just pile it on but I know you have the expertise to evaluate this and manage this.
To get our 1st working prototype took the equivalent of 4 person years.
To get to our fully functioning demonstration model will have required 8 PY
It will take another 4 PY to go into production
It will take 4 PY per year – depending on work requests – to use and maintain the system.

22. What Did It Cost Them: Data
Transport
Transport costs for goods and services
Off-peak auto times and cost skims from travel model
Value of time and commuting cost for labour
Land Use
Land cover data with existing use, zoning, vacant/protectedintensity of development
Floorspace
Real estate prices by TAZ
Typical floorspace use rates by household type and housing type from PUMS

23. What Did It Cost Them: Data
Typical floorspace use rates by employment type
Relative quantity of housing by zone from Census SF3Crosstab of space type by household type
Construction cost data
Employment
Employment by occupation and household category
Occupation by industry crosstab from PUMS ES202 or InfoUSA data on employment location
Census
Census household distributions by TAZ
First Prototype $2,000
Full Demonstration Model $100,000
Production Model $400,000

24. What Did It Cost Them: Time
Build
2 Year minimum process
3 Years easier on everybody
Run
About 30 hours per scenario

25. What Are They Doing Next
SACOG will finish calibration and study investment and policy
SANDAG will use their model to figure out how to direct development to the nodes they recognized in their Regional Comprehensive Plan
The Statewide model will be used by the Governor’s Office for interagency infrastructure investment decisions

26. Wide Range of Modeling Papers, Information and the UPlan User Manual