10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education Ralph Wolff President and Executive Director Senior College Commission, WASC World Future Society

Overview of U.S. Higher Education Greatest diversity of institutions in the world Long considered the best system in the world Major innovations – independent boards of trustees, community colleges, open access Massification since Korean War WFS 7-09

Mission Differentiation Research Liberal arts Comprehensive universities Community colleges Faith-based Specialized/single purpose “One solution never fits all.” WFS 7-09

Institutions Public 4-year institutions 643 Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit 1,533 Private 4-year institutions, for-profit 453 Private 2-year institutions, nonprofit 107 Private 2-year institutions, for-profit 533 Total 4,314 WFS 7-09

Where Students Go Public 4-year institutions 6,955,013 (39%) Private 4-year institutions 4,285,317 (24%) Private 2-year institutions 293,420 (1%) Total 17,758,870 81% of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had graduated from high school in the previous year attended colleges in their home states. WFS 7-09

Demographics Women 57.3% Full-time 61.7% Minority 31.5% Foreign 3.4% WFS 7-09

1. Financial Meltdown At a time of increased need for higher education: Public funding cuts Endowment decline > 20% Crunch on lines of credit Limits on tuition increases at private institutions Increases at public universities WFS 7-09

WFS 7-09

3-5 Year Setting Every state will have a structural deficit Pell increases do not make up differences $50 billion stimulus money for higher education is one time, focused Student debt load increasing Student work hours increasing WFS 7-09

Short –Medium Term Consequences Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not restructure Will shift most public supported institutions to “public assisted” Lead to search for new sources of revenue -- increased business partnerships, joint ventures Need for new models – are they out there? WFS 7-09

2. President Obama’s Priorities Highest proportion of college graduates in the world by 2020 (40 % → 60%) National high school exit standards Linked to college readiness standards $15 billion community college initiative $50 million for free online courses Centers to develop and share best practices WFS 7-09

Short – Medium Term Impact Shift toward vocational and technical education/jobs Partnering with major Gates and Lumina Foundation Initiatives Recognition that community colleges are today what high schools were 30 years ago Increased access through open admissions Increased participation of underrepresented groups WFS 7-09

3. Influence of For Profits and Market Capital Fastest growing sector Increasing mergers, acquisitions Conversion of nonprofit universities Joint ventures with mainline institutions Growth, scalability and high profitability of proprietary systems Increasing connections with industry – e.g., $500 million BP grant to Berkeley WFS 7-09

4. Technology and Distance Education > 2 million students Growing rapidly, increasing competition Hybrid programs most effective Greatest number within traditional settings High tech does not always mean high enrollment Can be centers of high profit Continuing Congressional concerns WFS 7-09

5. Internationalization Lincoln Commission – value to US students of study abroad Increase in international students in US Increased competition here and abroad for best international students Infusion of international perspectives -- a course or a holistic perspective? WFS 7-09

6. Globalization International recognition of importance of higher education Major investments in local systems Bologna Process will have significant impact over time Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian medical school opening in US; new programs and institutions in China, former Soviet bloc, Middle East Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual degrees WFS 7-09

7. Quality Assurance and Accountability Completion rates Placement rates Learning results Costs Debt load Executive compensation Board accountability WFS 7-09

Has Quality Declined? NAAL: Performance of college graduates and those with graduate degrees 1992 to 2003: -- % college graduates proficient in English fell from 40% to 31% -- % Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51% to 41% National Survey of America’s College Students: significant numbers of college grads (20-30%) have only basic quantitative skills No significant differences between public and private institutions In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on academic or technical curricula Employers: college grads lack skills for the workplace (AAC&U surveys) WFS 7-09

6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-year Institutions All 56.4% Men 53.0% Women 59.2% Visit www.edtrust.org – College Results Online WFS 7-09

Global Competitiveness Drop in high school graduation rates (77.5%) Dropped from 1st to 7th in college participation rates of 18-24 year olds 2d for 35-64 yr. olds; 10th for 25-34 15th in completion rates Lower than OECD average for science and math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores) WFS 7-09

8. Sustainability and the University President’s Climate Commitment Involvement of professional associations Moving from facilities to curriculum to institutionalization Major area of scientific research Need equal work in social and behavioral sciences, arts and humanities for the change in consciousness needed WFS 7-09

9. 21st Century Learning Competencies “We are responsible for preparing our students to address problems we cannot foresee with knowledge that has not yet been developed using technology not yet invented.” “The problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” Albert Einstein WFS 7-09

Is Higher Education Primarily for Economic Gain? WFS 7-09

Or Developing the Nation’s Talent and Creativity? WFS 7-09

Changing Character of Knowledge Sources of Knowledge education institution → everywhere (deinstitutionalized learning) Understanding of Knowledge static → dynamic (openness to new knowledge, ability to “unlearn”) Structure of Knowledge compartmental → holistic Nature of Knowledge external authority → personal and contextual WFS 7-09

21st Century Skills Problem identification or articulation 1 9 Ability to identify new patterns of behavior or new combinations of actions 2 3 Integration of knowledge across different disciplines Ability to originate new ideas 4 6 Comfort with notion of ‘no right answer’ 5 11 Fundamental curiosity 10 Originality and inventiveness in work 7 Problem solving 8 WFS 7-09

10. New Forms of Institutions Institutional consolidations/closures “Cloud” programs across institutions The “partnering” university Privatized public universities Credit banks Transnational universities WFS 7-09

What Is On Your List? Ralph Wolff rwolff@wascsenior.org WFS 7-09