Making sense of the MDGs

1. Poverty & hunger – 1/2 2. Primary education – full 3. Gender equality – full 4. Child mortality – 2/3 5. Maternal health – 3/4 6. HIV/Aids, malaria & TB 7. Environment 8. Global partnership Millennium development goals

Why are MDGs that way ? U5MR NER

Two FAQs 1.Can we achieve them ? 2.Can we afford them ? Answers will depend on choice of indicators & level of aggregation

Top-5 indicators –under-five mortality rate –underweight among children –net enrolment ratio in primary education –ratio of girls to boys in primary & secondary school –proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel 5 indicators that involve heavy transformation –proportion of population below $1 per day –proportion of population below a minimum level of dietary energy consumption –primary school completion rate –maternal mortality ratio –proportion of population with access to safe drinking water All indicators are imperfect but …

Are we on track ?

Was progress pro-poor ?

J progress has continued L but more slowly than in ’70s & ’80s L much of it has by-passed the poor Storyline since 1990

3 misunderstandings 1. Each & every country must achieve same numerical targets for the world to meet the MDGs 2. A standard set of interventions exists that is applicable to all countries 3. Foreign aid can deliver the MDG

4 steps at country level 1. Tailor national targets to balance ambition with realism 2. Set intermediate targets for political accountability 3. Translate #2 into specific actions & reforms for next 2-3 years 4. Cost #3 to inform national budget & aid+debt negotiations

from ‘Money changing hands’ towards ‘Ideas changing minds’ A new partnership