Justin Henriques, SIE Department, University of Virginia Decision Analysis and Its Applications to Systems Engineering HRA INCOSE, Hampton, VA November 18, 2009 Revisions to a decision aid for the selection of sustainable water and wastewater infrastructure in low-income communities in developing countries

2 I.Research Motivation II.Re-developed Capacity Factor Analysis III.Case Study: Cimahi, Indonesia (2008) Overview

3 884 million people lack access to safe drinking water (WHO 2008) 2.5 billion who lack access to improved sanitation (WHO 2000) Lack of access leads to approx. 30,000 deaths per day and 75% of all disease related illnesses in developing countries (WHO 2000). I. Research Motivation Since 1990, only small improvements have been made due to increasing population (WHO/UNICEF 2006). High critical failure (30% to 60%) of installed water infrastructure in developing countries, often attributed to inappropriate technology (Davis 1995). This, of course, makes progress difficult.

4 Child receives clean water, Mbeere, Kenya. July 06 Repairing the bore whole, Mbeere, Kenya. July 06 I. Research Motivation: Example, Mbeere Kenya Familiar story in many developing communities: 5 broken well pumps in 1- 2 mile radius - main source of water in the community Technical failure symptom of inability to manage technology Multiple factor system failure: financial, human resource, socio-cultural (transience) Observed the need for a Integrated approach that systematically incorporated relevant factors into your selection essential infrastructure

5 II. Capacity Factor Analysis (CFA) CFA is a decision support model for the systematic selection of appropriate technologies for water and sanitation services in developing communities. def. developing communities

6 II. CFA: Capacity Factors (Criteria)

7 II. CFA: Technology Assessment - Unit Operation 4 DWS - water to be used for direct human consumption that does not pose a substantial threat to human health through microbiological, chemical, or other contaminated sources. a.Source b.Procurement c.Storage d.Treatment e.Distribution Unit operation essential system components that are necessary for the provision of a service

8 II. CFA: Sample from Community Assessment

9 II. CFA: Technology Assessment Sample DWS Requirements and Benchmarks

10 II. CFA: Technology Assessment Source Sample List of Rated Technology: Source

11 II. CFA: Scoring Technology and Communities where: A = technology rating matrix of all rated technologies for a single unit operation K = set of k th technologies where k=1, 2, …, n-1, N technologies f i = score of the i-th capacity factor f = [f 1, f 2, …, f 8 ] 1. score of the i-th capacity factor 2. Community Score (row vector): 3. Rated Technology Matrix: where: i = capacity factor {1, 2, …, 8} j = criterion (or requirement) within each capacity factor f i = score of the i-th capacity factor C ij = score of the j-th criterion of the i-th capacity factor w j = weight of the criterion C ij, where 0 < w j 1, and Σw j = 1 for j =1, …, n.

12 II. CFA: Matching Rule 1. Produce Subset of feasible technology options 2. Order Set (T) by property x Rule: Set: where: x = the squared difference between the score of the community assessment and technology rating k = kth technology where k=1, …, n-1, N technology t = {t: t x1 t x2 …, t xN, t T },

13 … … II. CFA: Interactive Software

14 II. CFA: Web-based Interactive software CFAModel.org

15 Suburb of Bandung, West Java, Indonesia. Poverty and a rapidly increasing population of approximately half a million have caused a strain on MSS Cimahis designated as the final disposal site (FDS) of solid waste from Bandung, Indonesia. The FDS is known for inadequate management practices, 2005 landslide of the solid waste resulted in 140 casualties of residents in FDS surrounding area (BBC 2006) III. Case Study: Cimahi, Indonesia Caption: Indonesian men collect plastic rubbish for recycling on the Citarum river, in Cimahi, West Java province (Global Media, 2007)

16 Caption. Validation Hypotheses III. Case Study: Cimahi Indonesia 1.Perform the community assessment to determine the CCL for both DWS* and GWR. 2.Determine the optimal service options using benchmarks and requirements developed in this research for GWR and DWS. 3.Compare results of current GWR and DWS technology for each unit operation to those chosen by the model 4.Present relevant findings to local decision making entities in the community.

NYC Manhattan Island Bronx Bronx Park Neighborhood Watch III. Case Study: Cimahi, Indonesia

18 III. Case Study: DWS Assessment - Kota Cimahi

19 III. Case Study: Cimahi, Indonesia

20 III. Case Study: DWS Technology Recommendations Caption: Sandfilter with Chlorination in RW6 Caption: Tank with piped network distribution in RW6

21 * indicates that multiple units of the technology would need to be purchased to achieve service level III. Case Study: Failure of Current DWS in Cimahi * **

22 1 By increase the CFA Community assessment Environmental Capacity Factor score from 2 to 3 2 By increase the CFA Community assessment Economic Capacity Factor score from 2 to 4 3 By increase the CFA Community assessment Economic Capacity Factor score from 2 to 3 III. Case Study: DWS Recommendation for Cimahi Caption: Example of low environmental capacity in LeuwigajahCaption: Example of high socio-cultural capacity in Leuwigajah

23 III. Case Study: CFA Informal Validation

24 1.Ahmad, Tisan Technology assessment for sustainable sanitation services in lower-income communities. Ph.D. diss., University of Virginia. 2.Berndtsson, Justyna C. 2006/4. Experiences from the implementation of a urine separation system: Goals, planning, reality. Building and Environment 41, no. 4: Bouabid, M. A Community assessment for sustainable sanitation systems in low-income countries. 4.Buede, Dennis M., Knovel The engineering design of systems. 5.Davis, Jan, Franðcois Brikkâe, Mary Boesveld, and IRC International Water and Sanitation Centre Making your water supply work : Operation and maintenance of small water supply systems. The Hague, The Netherlands: IRC International Water and Sanitation Centre. 6.Global Media, Dadang Tri/REUTERS., 7. Access http:// 8.Jefferson, B., S. Judd, and C. Diaper Treatment methods for grey water. In Decentralised sanitation and reuse : Concepts, systems and implementation. London: IWA. 9.Louis, Garrick E Risk analysis for capacity development in less industrialized countries. In SRA annual meeting. 10.Rogers, JeffreyWilliam A standardized performance assessment and evaluation model for community water systems. 11.Sibeyn, Jop. Greedy Algorithms Accessed http://users.informatik.uni-halle.de/~jopsi/dinf503/chap8.shtml. Accessed Water Environment Federation (WEF). Glossary of water terms.Internet on-line. Available from. [4/28/2008, 2008]. 13.WHO and UNICEF Joint Water Supply and Sanitation Monitoring Programme Meeting the MDG Drinking Water and Sanitation Target - the Urban and Rural Challenge of the Decade. Geneva, Switzerland; New York. 14.World Health Organization, Unicef, Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council, and WHO/UNICEF Joint Water Supply and Sanitation Monitoring Programme Global water supply and sanitation assessment 2000 report. End References: