ADAPT A ssessment & D esign for A daptation: a P rototype T ool Ian Noble, World Bank & Fareeha Y. Iqbal (Consultant, World Bank)

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Presentation transcript:

ADAPT A ssessment & D esign for A daptation: a P rototype T ool Ian Noble, World Bank & Fareeha Y. Iqbal (Consultant, World Bank)

What is it? A screening & design tool Who is it for? Project developers, field staff, multilateral orgs. and NGOs What does it do? Provides a quick, initial check of potential issues that might arise in project design or implementation Guides project developers to appropriate knowledge and experience Raises awareness on the risks that climate change poses to development It is not a community level decision making tool !

What do project managers need to know? issues climate change might pose for their projects where to access more specific information about these some suggestions on how the project could be made more robust in the face of expected changes in climate

What do they often get? vague answers that emphasize uncertainties asked to provide highly quantitative data so that models can be run to compute answers for them – models usually still under development, though… asked to come back in a year or two when adaptation pilot project is complete and results have started to be processed…

What ADAPT offers project screening based on existing knowledge expert system that identifies key activities that might be sensitive to climate variability and change qualitative climate change data bases combining models and current trends qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities pointers to appropriate literature, tools, projects and experts

Levels of Advice Provided adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended some concerns, which should be checked not enough known to assess no adaptation issues foreseen positive action for adaptation

A framework for a screening & design tool User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options Additional tools Document database Project database Experts Risk elements & Location Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) Activities Climate sensitivit y Climate parameter (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate parameter Location Projected direction of climate change Technically complex : Multiple models – changing data bases What project managers need to know

A framework for a screening & design tool based on expert advice User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options Additional toolsDocument database Project database Experts Risk elements & Location Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) Activities Climate sensitivit y Climate parameter (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate parameter Location Projected direction of climate change Selected scenarios and current trends Expert assessment of relevant activities Expert assessment of sensitivities

A framework for a screening & design tool User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation options What does the user see? Additional tools Document database Project database Experts Risk elements & Location Direction of climate change (increase, no change, decrease, unknown) Activities Climate sensitivit y Climate parameter (eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc) Climate sensitivity for an activity Climate parameter Location Projected direction of climate change Relevant guidance to … gdfsgfd Leading to … A series of questions about their project

Assessment & Design for Climate Change – a Prototype Tool -- ADAPT

Help about the question and about each option Ability to change ones mind

Printable outputs Database of relevant local experts Can be periodically updated Simple structure

Simple Expert System