PERCEPTIONS OF CORRUPTION INDEX: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance Authors Team: THE PAPER MAY NOT BE PRESENTED AT THE CONGRESS SESSION IN BUENOS AIRES PARTLY FOR REASONS OF TIME SHORTAGE AND PARTLY BECAUSE THE AUTHORS THEAM IS NOT COMPLETELY SATISFIED WITH THEIR RESEARCH Initially Prepared for Presentation at: WAPOR Annual Congress, 2015 (Buenos Aires, Argentina) Note: The Authors team on this paper may not present it at the WAPOR Congress in Buenos Aires; their research is still in progress. The paper is nevertheless shared with our Invited Commentators, to seek their informal feedback. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Panel Paper # 4 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 1 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS This Presentation has 3 Sections. Section # 1 Describes Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Section # 2 is Global Corruption Barometer and Section # 3 is Conclusions: Reflections on the process to develop a Global Index Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 2 Section #1: CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX (CPI) WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 3 CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX is an annual publication. It has been released every year from 1995 to The Corruption Perceptions Index aggregates data from a number of different sources that provide perceptions of business people and country experts of the level of corruption in the public sector. Each source is standardized to be compatible with other available sources, for aggregation to the CPI scale. The CPI provides an annual ranking of countries according to perceived levels of public sector corruption. The latest ranking in 2014 included 175 countries. The CPI invites widespread public comment every year. Background WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page : 41 countries were ranked 1996: 54 countries were ranked 1997: 52 countries were ranked 1998: 85 countries were ranked 1999: 99 countries were ranked 2000: 90 countries were ranked 2001: 91 countries were ranked 2002: 102 countries were ranked 2003: 133 countries were ranked 2004: 146 countries were ranked 2005: 159 countries were ranked 2006: 163 countries were ranked 2007: 180 countries were ranked 2008: 180 countries were ranked 2009: 180 countries were ranked 2010: 178 countries were ranked 2011: 183 countries were ranked 2012: 176 countries were ranked 2013: 177 countries were ranked 2014: 175 countries were ranked CPI by the Years WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page African Development Bank Governance Ratings YES Bertelsmann Foundation Sustainable Governance Indicators YES Bertelsmann Foundation Transformation Index YES Economist Intelligence Unit Country Risk Ratings YES Freedom House Nations in Transit YES Global Insight Country Risk Ratings YES IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook YES Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Asian Intelligence YES Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide YES World Bank - Country Policy and Institutional Assessment YES World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) YES World Justice Project Rule of Law Index YES Transparency International Bribe Payers Survey YES Asian Development Bank Country Performance Assessment YES African Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments YES World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report YES Merchant International Group Grey Area Dynamics YES UNECA Africa Governance Report YES World Markets Research Centre YES State Capacity Survey by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network YES Information International Survey of Middle Eastern Businesspeople YES World Bank and the EBRD Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey A multilateral development bank Survey Gallup International on behalf of Transparency International Corruption survey PricewaterhouseCoopers Opacity Index World Bank World Business Environment Survey World Economic Forum Africa Competitiveness Report International Crime Victim Survey World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Gallup International 50th Anniversary Survey Wall Street Journal, Central European Economic Review Annual Survey World Bank/Basel University World Development Report, Private Sector Survey Internet Corruption Ranking, Göttingen University Impulse, Peter Neumann DRI/McGraw-Hill Global Risk Service 1980 survey from Business International, New York Sources used in CPIs during WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page African Development Bank Governance Ratings Bertelsmann Foundation Sustainable Governance Indicators Bertelsmann Foundation Transformation Index Economist Intelligence Unit Country Risk Ratings YES Freedom House Nations in Transit YES Global Insight Country Risk Ratings IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook YES Political and Economic Risk Consultancy Asian Intelligence YES Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide YES World Bank - Country Policy and Institutional Assessment World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) World Justice Project Rule of Law Index Transparency International Bribe Payers Survey Asian Development Bank Country Performance Assessment African Development Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessments World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report YES Merchant International Group Grey Area Dynamics YES UNECA Africa Governance Report World Markets Research Centre YES State Capacity Survey by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network YES Information International Survey of Middle Eastern Businesspeople YES World Bank and the EBRD Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey YES A multilateral development bank Survey YES Gallup International on behalf of Transparency International Corruption survey YES PricewaterhouseCoopers Opacity Index YES World Bank World Business Environment Survey YES World Economic Forum Africa Competitiveness Report YES International Crime Victim Survey YES World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development YES Gallup International 50th Anniversary Survey YES Wall Street Journal, Central European Economic Review Annual Survey YES World Bank/Basel University World Development Report, Private Sector Survey YES Internet Corruption Ranking, Göttingen University YES Impulse, Peter Neumann YES DRI/McGraw-Hill Global Risk Service YES 1980 survey from Business International, New York YES WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 7 CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 125Denmark 248New Zealand 335Finland 424Sweden 58Norway 511Switzerland 76Singapore 823Netherlands 913Luxembourg 1030Canada 1131Australia 1227Germany 1234Iceland 1438United Kingdom 1533Belgium 1539Japan 1795Barbados 1716Hong Kong 1736Ireland 1718United States 2174Chile 2181Uruguay 2326Austria 2469Bahamas 2510United Arab Emirates 2661Estonia 2637France 261Qatar Saint Vincent and the Grenadines CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 30142Bhutan 3193Botswana 3154Cyprus 3155Portugal 3164Puerto Rico 3568Poland 35*Taiwan 3747Israel 3745Spain 39120Dominica 3962Lithuania 3953Slovenia 42145Cape Verde 43 Korea (South) 4372Latvia 4356Malta 4365Seychelles 47102Costa Rica 4770Hungary 4786Mauritius 50139Georgia 5071Malaysia 50148Samoa 5357Czech Republic 5459Slovakia 5540Bahrain 55110Jordan 55169Lesotho 55124Namibia 55200Rwanda CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 5519Saudi Arabia 6176Croatia 61163Ghana 6382Cuba 6420Oman 64112The FYR of Macedonia 6483Turkey 675Kuwait 67106South Africa 6998Brazil 6996Bulgaria 6960Greece 6941Italy 6984Romania 69185Senegal 69146Swaziland 76101Montenegro 76173Sao Tome and Principe 78107Serbia 79117Tunisia 80190Benin 80123Bosnia and Herzegovina 80137El Salvador 80129Mongolia 80140Morocco 85194Burkina Faso 85151India 85130Jamaica 85114Peru 85133Philippines Comparison of CPI* and GNI**-Per Capita Ranking * Source CPI Ranking: Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2014 ** Source GNI-Per Capita Ranking: World Bank GNIPC (Gross National Income Per Capita) Ranking 2013 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 8 Comparison of CPI and GNI-Per Capita Ranking CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry 85125Sri Lanka 85103Thailand 8558Trinidad and Tobago 85165Zambia 94131Armenia 94108Colombia 94115Egypt 9488Gabon 94209Liberia 9480Panama Algeria China 10092Suriname Bolivia 10391Mexico Moldova Niger 107*Argentina 107*Djibouti Indonesia Albania Ecuador Ethiopia Kosovo Malawi 115*Côte d´Ivoire Dominican Republic Guatemala Mali 11989Belarus CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry Mozambique Sierra Leone Tanzania Vietnam Guyana Mauritania 12690Azerbaijan Gambia Honduras 12677Kazakhstan Nepal Pakistan Togo Madagascar Nicaragua Timor-Leste Cameroon 13694Iran Kyrgyzstan 13687Lebanon Nigeria 13663Russia Comoros Uganda Ukraine Bangladesh Guinea Kenya 145*Laos Papua New Guinea CPI RankGNIPC RankCountry Central African Republic Paraguay Congo Republic Tajikistan Chad Democratic Republic of Congo Cambodia 156*Myanmar Zimbabwe Burundi 159*Syria Angola Guinea-Bissau Haiti 16185Venezuela Yemen Eritrea 166*Libya Uzbekistan Turkmenistan 17097Iraq South Sudan Afghanistan Sudan 174*Korea (North) 174*Somalia As seen by the comparison, if we take a group of countries, the CPI and GNI-Per Capita ranks match within blocks of about 30 nation groups, except for some exceptions. These findings need to be examined thoroughly. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 9 Section #2: GLOBAL CORRUPTION BAROMETER WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 10 GLOBAL CORRUPTION BAROMETER is an international survey by Transparency International that has been conducted 8 times between 2003 and 2015 (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010/2011, 2013.) Global Corruption Barometer 2013 was based on 12 questions. However, public discourse normally focuses on the first question in the survey. Our paper has done extensive analysis on the Barometer as a measure of net increase in corruption perception over the years in different countries. Background WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 11 List of Questions for Global Corruption Barometer 2013 Q1 Over the past 2 years, how has the level of corruption in this country changed? Q2 To what extent do you think that corruption is a problem in the public sector in this country? Q3 In your dealings with the public sector, how important are personal contacts to get things done Q4 To what extent is this country's government run by a few big entities acting in their own best interests Q5 How effective do you think your government's actions are in the fight against corruption Q6 Perceptions of corruption, by institution Q7 Have you paid a bribe to any one of 8 services listed in the past 12 months Q8 What was the most common reason for paying the bribe/bribes? Q9 Can ordinary people make a difference in the fight against corruption? Q10 Are you willing to get involved in the fight against corruption? Q11 Reporting corruption Q12 Refusing to pay a bribe WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 12 Public comment about the Global Corruption Barometer focuses on the opening question: “Over the past 2 years, how has the level of corruption in this country changed?” (Increased a lot; Increased a little; Stayed the same; Decreased a little; Decreased a lot) Net Score: % Increase - % Decrease WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 13 Year Change in Net figure 2013 minus Net Afghanistan *10- Albania *57- Algeria *83- Argentina *63- Armenia *25- Australia *54- Austria 35*- Azerbaijan *-13- Bangladesh *33- Belarus **- Belgium *-40- Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil *30- Bulgaria Burundi *61- Cambodia *-25- Cameroon Canada Chile *48- China **- Colombia Costa Rica 2*- Croatia Cyprus *66- Czech Republic *50- Democratic Republic of the Congo *55- Denmark Dominican Republic 16*- Ecuador **- Egypt *49- El Salvador *42- Estonia *28- Ethiopia *8- Fiji *-14- Finland France *65- Georgia Germany Ghana *34- Global Greece *39- Guatemala -10*- Hong Kong 28*- Hungary *54- Iceland **- India Indonesia Iraq *44- Ireland -15*- Israel Italy Jamaica *46- Japan Jordan *22- Kazakhstan *12- Kenya *20- Korea (South) 2526 Kosovo *58- Kyrgyzstan *28- Latvia *13- Lebanon *79- Liberia *51- Libya *15- Lithuania *56- Luxembourg Macedonia Madagascar *41- Malawi *61- Malaysia Maldives *40- Mexico Moldova *61- Mongolia *30- Morocco *45- Mozambique *42- Nepal *66- Netherlands 55*- New Zealand *60- Nicaragua **- Nigeria Norway3837 Pakistan Palestine*17- Panama23*- Papua New Guinea *56- Paraguay*54- Peru Philippines*-6- Poland29*- Portugal Romania Russia38391 Rwanda*-83- Senegal*47- Serbia*-47- Sierra Leone*24- Singapore**- Slovakia*46- Slovenia*53- Solomon Islands*52- South Africa South Korea**- South Sudan*-3- Spain Sri Lanka*46- Sudan*-23- Sweden28*- Switzerland Taiwan*-58- Tanzania*52- Thailand*57- Togo**- Tunisia*74- Turkey Uganda*65- Ukraine*54- United Kingdom United States Uruguay*20- Vanuatu*74- Venezuela*49- Vietnam*37- Yemen*35- Zambia*21- Zimbabwe*64- Source: Global Barometer on Corruption WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 14 PERCEPTION ON WHETHER CORRUPTION INCREASED NET FIGURE ON HAS CORRUPTION INCREASED IN YOUR VIEW (Net figure = Increased minus Decreased) Country Afghanistan****4410 Albania*19*-5*57 Algeria*****83 Argentina* Armenia****3525 Australia****4954 Austria * Azerbaijan****25-13 Bangladesh****1033 Belarus****2* Belgium*****-40 Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil*23**5530 Bulgaria Burundi****8361 Cambodia** Cameroon Canada Chile**42*4448 China****22* Colombia-36* Costa Rica27076*** Croatia Cyprus*****66 Czech Republic* Democratic Republic of the Congo ****6755 Denmark Dominican Republic16*7126** Country Ecuador*708022** Egypt*****49 El Salvador****3042 Estonia*11***28 Ethiopia**41*-78 Fiji**** Finland France* Georgia * Germany Ghana* Global Greece* Guatemala ** Hong Kong * Hungary****7254 Iceland* * India Indonesia Iraq****7344 Ireland * Israel504677*7232 Italy Jamaica *****46 Japan Jordan *****22 Kazakhstan *****12 Kenya *-6-18*-920 Korea (South) -7*13825 Kosovo * Kyrgyzstan *****28 Latvia ***4613 Source: Global Barometer on CorruptionContinued……. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 15 Source: Global Barometer on Corruption Country Lebanon ****7679 Liberia ****2251 Libya *****15 Lithuania * Luxembourg Macedonia Madagascar *****41 Malawi ****3561 Malaysia Maldives****4640 Mexico285248*6963 Moldova* Mongolia****6630 Morocco****245 Mozambique****3442 Nepal****4866 Netherlands * New Zealand****6960 Nicaragua**75*** Nigeria Norway Pakistan Palestine****-3717 Panama23*5551** Papua New Guinea****7956 Paraguay**51**54 Peru Philippines* Poland * Portugal Romania Russia Rwanda**** Senegal** Serbia** Country Sierra Leone****-2324 Singapore* * Slovakia*****46 Slovenia****6853 Solomon Islands****5052 South Africa South Korea**28*** South Sudan****50-3 Spain Sri Lanka****1746 Sudan****50-23 Sweden28**51** Switzerland Taiwan*248*19-58 Tanzania****4352 Thailand** Togo**43*** Tunisia*****74 Turkey Uganda****4665 Ukraine* United Kingdom United States Uruguay*-749**20 Vanuatu****5074 Venezuela* Vietnam****4537 Yemen****6635 Zambia****5521 Zimbabwe****2964 WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 16 Section #3: CONCLUSIONS: Reflections on the process to develop a Global Index WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 17 A. SIMPLICITY The idea of a global indicator based on a small set of Perception Questions was a simple but novel idea which caught the imagination of the world. The annual (or periodic) ranking of nations by TI has made positive contribution towards the cause of Good Governance. B. MEDIA The TI studies on Corruption are one of the most widely publicized annual studies. Their success in attracting attention among citizens and policy makers provides important learnings for development of policy relevant global indices of perceptions. The following lessons are worth noting. The Media exposure sucked in political incumbents and Challengers into the Debate. Trending the Rank Order on a Yearly basis made. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

Page 18 PROMISE The Simplicity of the Index combined with the Ranking of Nations, and Trending on an Annual basis, lies at the heart of the success of TI studies on corruption. In order to sustain the success of TI studies on corruption we need to engage in Scientific Review of the Validity of the Index as well as Accuracy of Ranking Exercise in terms of statistical validity of Ranked positions among the Universe of polled countries. We would like to engage the WAPOR community in this exercise. significant contribution. The simple 5 point Index emerging out of one Perception Question(Has Corruption Increased Declined or Remained the Same) became a Politically Sensitive Number in many Countries. Has their Rank among Nations risen or fallen could put governments in the dock or permit them room to celebrate. WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS Perceptions of Corruption Index: A case of Global Indicators on Quality of Governance

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