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Leonard Evans President-Emeritus, ITMA

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1 Deaths in road traffic – a grossly underemphasized public health problem
Leonard Evans President-Emeritus, ITMA (International Traffic Medicine Association) Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, USA Wed. 31 Oct, 2018 9:00 am ITMA 2018 Thank you, I am truly happy to be here on my 3rd trip to Brazil. Previous May 1994 (13th Iaatm) and Oct 1998 (Brasilia) But unfortunatelly, the subject, which is the focus of our ITMA meeting, is not a happy one - deaths and injuries in traffic.

2  1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads
Harm from traffic  1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads  Victims mainly healthy, young  Injures >> fatalities 2

3 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
178 China 261,367 180 India 238,562 179 Brazil 46,935 178 Indonesia 38,279 177 Nigeria 35,621 176 United States 34,064 175 Russia 27,025 174 Pakistan 25,781 173 Iran 24,896 172 Thailand 24,237 171 Ethiopia 23,837 170 Vietnam 22,419 169 Democratic Republic of the Congo 22,419 168 Bangladesh 21,316 167 Tanzania 16,211 166 Mexico 15,062 3

4 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities Country Total fatalities Year, data source latest year (standard source: figures by WHO report)[4] data from 2013) (adjusted/estimated The WHO report 2015,[2] 178  China 261, 177  India 238, 176  Brazil 46, 175  Indonesia 38, 174  Nigeria 35, 173  United States 34, 172  Russia 27, 171  Pakistan 25, 170  Iran 24, 169  Thailand 24, 168  Ethiopia 23, 167  Democratic Republic of the Congo 22, 166  Vietnam 22, 165  Bangladesh 21, 164  Tanzania 16, 163  Mexico 15, 162  South Africa 13, 161  Kenya 12, 160  Myanmar 10, 159  Egypt 10, 158  Philippines 10, 157  Uganda 10, 156  Sudan 9, 155  Mozambique 8, 154  Colombia 8, 153  Saudi Arabia 7, 152  Malaysia 7, 151  Morocco 6, 150  Iraq 6, 149  Ghana 6, 148  Turkey 6, 147  Madagascar 6, 146  Cameroon 6, 145  Japan 5, 144  Angola 5, 143  Malawi 5, 142  Argentina 141  Yemen 5, 140  Ukraine 5, [17] 139  Burkina Faso 5, 138  Ivory Coast 4, 137  South Korea 4, [12] 136    Nepal 4, 135  Niger 4, 134  Libya 4, 133  Peru 4, 132  Zimbabwe 3, 131  Kazakhstan 3, 130  Poland 3, 129  Mali 3, 128  Senegal 3, 127  Rwanda 3, 126  Italy 3, 125  Sri Lanka 3, 124  Zambia 3, 123  Germany 3, 122  Bolivia 3, 121  France 3, 120  Uzbekistan 3, 119  Guinea 3, 118  Ecuador 3, 117  Chad 3, 116  Dominican Republic 3, 115  Guatemala 2, 114  Benin 2, 113  Tunisia 2, 112  Somalia 2, 111  Cambodia 2, 110  Chile 2, 109  Togo 2, 108  Canada 2, 107  Jordan 1, 106  Romania 1, 105  United Kingdom 1, 104  Spain 1, 103  Sierra Leone 1, 102  Taiwan 1, [16] 101  Tajikistan 1, 100  Eritrea 1, 99  Central African Republic 1, 98  Liberia 1, 97  Honduras 1, 96  Paraguay 1, 95  El Salvador 1, 94  Belarus 1, 93  Australia 1, 92  Papua New Guinea 1, 91  Kyrgyzstan 1, 90  Congo 1, 89  Lebanon 1, 88  United Arab Emirates 1, 87  Greece 1, 86  Laos 85  Mauritania 84  Azerbaijan 83  Nicaragua 82  Oman 81  Turkmenistan 80  Cuba 79  Portugal 78  Hungary 77  Belgium 76  Serbia 75  Bosnia and Herzegovina 74  Costa Rica 73  Czech Republic 72  Kuwait 71  Bulgaria 70  Mongolia 69  Lesotho 68  Netherlands 67  Uruguay 66  Namibia 65  Armenia 64  Gambia 63  Georgia 62  Botswana 61  Guinea-Bissau 60  Austria 59  Republic of Moldova 58  New Zealand [10] 57  Croatia 56  Panama 55  Gabon 54  Slovakia 53  Qatar 52  Jamaica 51  Lithuania 50  Swaziland 49  Israel 48  Sweden 47  Finland 46  Djibouti 45   Switzerland [13][14][15] 44  Latvia 43  Macedonia 42  Singapore 41  Denmark 40  Trinidad and Tobago 39  Ireland 38  Timor-Leste 37  Mauritius 36  Guyana 35  Slovenia 34  Cape Verde 33  Bhutan 32  Norway [11] 31  Solomon Islands 30  Bahrain 29  Suriname 28  Estonia 27  Belize 26  Montenegro [7] 25  São Tomé and Príncipe 24  Cyprus 23  Bahamas 22  Fiji 21  Luxembourg 20  Vanuatu 19  Saint Lucia 18  Samoa 17  Malta 16  Barbados 15  Iceland 14  Maldives 13  Dominica 12  Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 11  Seychelles 10  Tonga 9  Andorra 8  Antigua & Barbuda 7  Cook Islands 6  Kiribati 5  Marshall Islands 4  Federated States of Micronesia 3  Palau 2  San Marino 1  Monaco 4

5 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 178 China 261,367 180 India 238,562 179 Brazil 46,935 178 Indonesia 38,279 177 Nigeria 35,621 176 United States 34,064 175 Russia 27,025 174 Pakistan 25,781 173 Iran 24,896 172 Thailand 24,237 171 Ethiopia 23,837 170 Vietnam 22,419 169 Democratic Republic of the Congo 22,419 168 Bangladesh 21,316 167 Tanzania 16,211 166 Mexico 15,062 5

6 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 6

7 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 7

8 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 8

9 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 9

10 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 175 Indonesia 38,279 174 Nigeria 35,621 10

11 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 175 Indonesia 38,279 174 Nigeria 35,621 173 11

12 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 175 Indonesia 38,279 174 Nigeria 35,621 173 USA 34,064 12

13 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 177 India 238,562 176 Brazil 46,935 175 Indonesia 38,279 174 Nigeria 35,621 173 USA 34,064 172 Russia 27,025 171 Pakistan 25,781 13

14 WHO has estimates of fatalities for 178 countries (data for 2013)
Rank Fatalities 178 China 261,367 170 Iran 24,896 177 India 238,562 169 Thailand 24,237 176 Brazil 46,935 168 Ethiopia 23,837 175 Indonesia 38,279 167 Congo 22,419 174 Nigeria 35,621 166 Vietnam 173 USA 34,064 165 Bangladesh 21,316 172 Russia 27,025 164 Tanzania 16,211 171 Pakistan 25,781 163 Mexico 15,062 14

15 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles

16 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2

17 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1  San Marino – 1 fatait Country Road fatalities Road fatalities Total fatalities Year, data source per 100,000 per 1 billion latest year (standard source: motor vehicles[4] vehicle-km[5] (adjusted/estimated The WHO report 2015,[2] figures by WHO report)[4] data from 2013) 1  San Marino 1.8 n/a 2  Norway 3.1 n/a [11] 3   Switzerland [13][14][15] 4  Finland 5  Sweden 6  United Kingdom 7  Spain 8  Netherlands 9  Iceland 10  Japan 11  Denmark 12  Germany 13  Malta 6.8 n/a 14  Austria 15  Australia 16  Italy 7.3 n/a 17  France 18  Ireland 19  Andorra 7.9 n/a 20  Czech Republic 21  Cyprus 9.2 n/a 22  Canada 23  Slovenia 24  Israel 25  Belgium 26  Luxembourg 10.7 n/a 27  Estonia 11.8 n/a 28  New Zealand [9] [10] 29  Greece 12.6 n/a 30  United States 31  Portugal 13.7 n/a 32  Slovakia 13.7 n/a 33  Palau 14.1 n/a 34  Poland 15.8 n/a 35  Lithuania 16.1 n/a 36  Barbados 16.9 n/a 37  Bulgaria 17.2 n/a 38  Armenia 18.2 n/a 39  Maldives 19.5 n/a 40  Bahrain 19.6 n/a 41  Antigua & Barbuda 20 n/a 42  Singapore 20.2 n/a 43  South Korea [12] 44  Hungary 20.7 n/a 45  Croatia 21.1 n/a 46  Federated States of Micronesia 24 n/a 47  Argentina 24.3 n/a 48  Latvia 24.8 n/a 49  Belize 26 n/a 50  Uruguay 28.5 n/a 51  Malaysia 52  Montenegro 31.1 n/a [7] 53  Romania 31.4 n/a 54  Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 31.7 n/a 55  Belarus 32.9 n/a 56  Kuwait 34.2 n/a 57  Serbia 34.5 n/a 58  Ukraine 35.3 n/a [17] 59  Mauritius 35.6 n/a 60  Bahamas 36 n/a 61  Indonesia 36.7 n/a 62  Turkey 37.3 n/a 63  United Arab Emirates 38.2 n/a 64  Costa Rica 38.4 n/a 65  Panama 38.4 n/a 66  Cook Islands 40.2 n/a 67  Mexico 43 n/a 68  Seychelles 43 n/a 69  Dominica 44.7 n/a 70  Macedonia 49.1 n/a 71  Suriname 49.7 n/a 72  Qatar 50.9 n/a 73  Chile 51.1 n/a 74  Russia 53.4 n/a 75  Georgia 54 n/a 76  Vietnam 55 n/a 77  Brazil 57.5 n/a 78  Fiji 58.9 n/a 79  Trinidad and Tobago 58.9 n/a 80  Jamaica 61.7 n/a 81  Republic of Moldova 61.8 n/a 82  Lebanon 64.8 n/a 83  Laos 67.5 n/a 84  Sri Lanka 70.9 n/a 85  Thailand 74.6 n/a 86  Bosnia and Herzegovina 76.7 n/a 87  Azerbaijan 83 n/a 88  Colombia 83.3 n/a 89  Oman 85.3 n/a 90  Kiribati 86.9 n/a 91  Mongolia 88.4 n/a 92  Botswana 91.6 n/a 93  Iran 92.7 n/a 94  Dominican Republic 94.9 n/a 95  Tonga 98.1 n/a 96  Peru 99.3 n/a 97  Kazakhstan n/a 98  China n/a 99  Cambodia n/a 100  Turkmenistan n/a 101  Guatemala n/a 102  Paraguay n/a 103  Saudi Arabia n/a 104  Kyrgyzstan n/a 105  Libya n/a 106  India n/a 107  Liberia n/a 108  Cuba n/a 109  South Africa n/a 110  Philippines 135 n/a 111  Marshall Islands n/a 112  Egypt n/a 113  Iraq n/a 114  Jordan n/a 115  Tunisia n/a 116  El Salvador n/a 117  Nicaragua n/a 118  Bhutan n/a 119  Samoa n/a 120  Ecuador n/a 121  Gabon n/a 122  Namibia n/a 123  Bolivia n/a 124  Morocco 209 n/a 125  Mauritania n/a 126  Cape Verde 229 n/a 127  Solomon Islands 240 n/a 128  Myanmar n/a 129  Pakistan n/a 130  Timor-Leste n/a 131  Vanuatu 300 n/a 132  Burkina Faso n/a 133  Tajikistan n/a 134    Nepal n/a 135  Zimbabwe n/a 136  Yemen n/a 137  Ghana n/a 138  Lesotho n/a 139  Chad 497 n/a 140  Nigeria n/a 141  Kenya n/a 142  Zambia n/a 143  Guinea-Bissau n/a 144  Ivory Coast n/a 145  Uganda n/a 146  Guyana n/a 147  Senegal n/a 148  Angola 992 n/a 149  Gambia n/a 150  Bangladesh n/a 151  Honduras n/a 152  Congo 1063 n/a 153  Tanzania n/a 154  Papua New Guinea n/a 155  Malawi n/a 156  Mali n/a 157  Cameroon n/a 158  Niger n/a 159  Mozambique 1507 n/a 160  Swaziland n/a 161  Saint Lucia n/a 162  Eritrea n/a 163  Sierra Leone n/a 164  Sudan n/a 165  Madagascar 2963 n/a 166  Rwanda n/a 167  Togo n/a 168  Central African Republic n/a 169  Somalia n/a 170  Ethiopia n/a 171  São Tomé and Príncipe n/a 172  Democratic Republic of the Congo n/a 173  Benin n/a 174  Guinea n/a 175  Monaco - n/a 176  Djibouti n/a n/a 177  Taiwan n/a n/a [16] 178  Uzbekistan n/a

18 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6

19 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7

20 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0

21 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5

22 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9

23 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9

24 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9

25 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9

26 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 77 Brazil 57.5 8 Netherlands 6.0 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9

27 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 77 Brazil 57.5 8 Netherlands 6.0 98 China 104.5 10 Japan 6.5 30 USA 12.9

28 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 77 Brazil 57.5 8 Netherlands 6.0 98 China 104.5 10 Japan 6.5 106 India 130.1 30 USA 12.9

29 Illustrative examples from 178 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles Rank R 2 Norway 3.1 67 Mexico 43.0 3 Switzerland 3.6 74 Russia 53.4 5 Sweden 4.7 77 Brazil 57.5 8 Netherlands 6.0 98 China 104.5 10 Japan 6.5 106 India 130.1 30 USA 12.9 129 Pakistan 283.9 14 Mexico rate 14 times Norwegian Country Road fatalities Road fatalities Total fatalities Year, data source per 100,000 per 1 billion latest year (standard source: motor vehicles[4] vehicle-km[5] (adjusted/estimated The WHO report 2015,[2] figures by WHO report)[4] data from 2013) 1  San Marino 1.8 n/a 2  Norway 3.1 n/a [11] 3   Switzerland [13][14][15] 4  Finland 5  Sweden 6  United Kingdom 7  Spain 8  Netherlands 9  Iceland 10  Japan 11  Denmark 12  Germany 13  Malta 6.8 n/a 14  Austria 15  Australia 16  Italy 7.3 n/a 17  France 18  Ireland 19  Andorra 7.9 n/a 20  Czech Republic 21  Cyprus 9.2 n/a 22  Canada 23  Slovenia 24  Israel 25  Belgium 26  Luxembourg 10.7 n/a 27  Estonia 11.8 n/a 28  New Zealand [9] [10] 29  Greece 12.6 n/a 30  United States 31  Portugal 13.7 n/a 32  Slovakia 13.7 n/a 33  Palau 14.1 n/a 34  Poland 15.8 n/a 35  Lithuania 16.1 n/a 36  Barbados 16.9 n/a 37  Bulgaria 17.2 n/a 38  Armenia 18.2 n/a 39  Maldives 19.5 n/a 40  Bahrain 19.6 n/a 41  Antigua & Barbuda 20 n/a 42  Singapore 20.2 n/a 43  South Korea [12] 44  Hungary 20.7 n/a 45  Croatia 21.1 n/a 46  Federated States of Micronesia 24 n/a 47  Argentina 24.3 n/a 48  Latvia 24.8 n/a 49  Belize 26 n/a 50  Uruguay 28.5 n/a 51  Malaysia 52  Montenegro 31.1 n/a [7] 53  Romania 31.4 n/a 54  Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 31.7 n/a 55  Belarus 32.9 n/a 56  Kuwait 34.2 n/a 57  Serbia 34.5 n/a 58  Ukraine 35.3 n/a [17] 59  Mauritius 35.6 n/a 60  Bahamas 36 n/a 61  Indonesia 36.7 n/a 62  Turkey 37.3 n/a 63  United Arab Emirates 38.2 n/a 64  Costa Rica 38.4 n/a 65  Panama 38.4 n/a 66  Cook Islands 40.2 n/a 67  Mexico 43 n/a 68  Seychelles 43 n/a 69  Dominica 44.7 n/a 70  Macedonia 49.1 n/a 71  Suriname 49.7 n/a 72  Qatar 50.9 n/a 73  Chile 51.1 n/a 74  Russia 53.4 n/a 75  Georgia 54 n/a 76  Vietnam 55 n/a 77  Brazil 57.5 n/a 78  Fiji 58.9 n/a 79  Trinidad and Tobago 58.9 n/a 80  Jamaica 61.7 n/a 81  Republic of Moldova 61.8 n/a 82  Lebanon 64.8 n/a 83  Laos 67.5 n/a 84  Sri Lanka 70.9 n/a 85  Thailand 74.6 n/a 86  Bosnia and Herzegovina 76.7 n/a 87  Azerbaijan 83 n/a 88  Colombia 83.3 n/a 89  Oman 85.3 n/a 90  Kiribati 86.9 n/a 91  Mongolia 88.4 n/a 92  Botswana 91.6 n/a 93  Iran 92.7 n/a 94  Dominican Republic 94.9 n/a 95  Tonga 98.1 n/a 96  Peru 99.3 n/a 97  Kazakhstan n/a 98  China n/a 99  Cambodia n/a 100  Turkmenistan n/a 101  Guatemala n/a 102  Paraguay n/a 103  Saudi Arabia n/a 104  Kyrgyzstan n/a 105  Libya n/a 106  India n/a 107  Liberia n/a 108  Cuba n/a 109  South Africa n/a 110  Philippines 135 n/a 111  Marshall Islands n/a 112  Egypt n/a 113  Iraq n/a 114  Jordan n/a 115  Tunisia n/a 116  El Salvador n/a 117  Nicaragua n/a 118  Bhutan n/a 119  Samoa n/a 120  Ecuador n/a 121  Gabon n/a 122  Namibia n/a 123  Bolivia n/a 124  Morocco 209 n/a 125  Mauritania n/a 126  Cape Verde 229 n/a 127  Solomon Islands 240 n/a 128  Myanmar n/a 129  Pakistan n/a 130  Timor-Leste n/a 131  Vanuatu 300 n/a 132  Burkina Faso n/a 133  Tajikistan n/a 134    Nepal n/a 135  Zimbabwe n/a 136  Yemen n/a 137  Ghana n/a 138  Lesotho n/a 139  Chad 497 n/a 140  Nigeria n/a 141  Kenya n/a 142  Zambia n/a 143  Guinea-Bissau n/a 144  Ivory Coast n/a 145  Uganda n/a 146  Guyana n/a 147  Senegal n/a 148  Angola 992 n/a 149  Gambia n/a 150  Bangladesh n/a 151  Honduras n/a 152  Congo 1063 n/a 153  Tanzania n/a 154  Papua New Guinea n/a 155  Malawi n/a 156  Mali n/a 157  Cameroon n/a 158  Niger n/a 159  Mozambique 1507 n/a 160  Swaziland n/a 161  Saint Lucia n/a 162  Eritrea n/a 163  Sierra Leone n/a 164  Sudan n/a 165  Madagascar 2963 n/a 166  Rwanda n/a 167  Togo n/a 168  Central African Republic n/a 169  Somalia n/a 170  Ethiopia n/a 171  São Tomé and Príncipe n/a 172  Democratic Republic of the Congo n/a 173  Benin n/a 174  Guinea n/a 175  Monaco - n/a 176  Djibouti n/a n/a 177  Taiwan n/a n/a [16] 178  Uzbekistan n/a

30 Focus is on fatalities — by far, the most reliable data
How can Brazil’s 46 thousand annual deaths be reduced?  Scientific analysis of problem - requires quality data  Learn from other countries USA experience is unique 30 30

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35 Fatalities in a given year Maximum yearly fatalities
Because fatalities reach a maximum, we can define a simple ratio: Fatalities in a given year Maximum yearly fatalities Advantages over traditional measures:  Dimensionless (no units)  No arbitrary assumptions  Compares each country’s performance to its own past  Depends ONLY on fatalities 35

36 Data from International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD)
Original file had data for 32 OECD jurisdictions Use data from same 26 countries as in my 2014 AJPH paper 36

37 Data from International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD)
Original file had data for 32 OECD* jurisdictions Use data from same 26 countries as in my 2014 AJPH paper *Brazil not included – I suspect reliable long time series is unavailable 37

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40 37,461 in 2016

41 37,461 in 2016 (68% of max.) 44 years after maximum

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43 maximum value 54,589 in 1972

44 Dropped to 68% of max 44 years after reaching max
maximum value 54,589 in 1972 Dropped to 68% of max 44 years after reaching max

45 for 25 other countries, compare declines from their maxima to US decline to 68%

46 for 25 other countries, compare declines from their maxima to US decline to 68%
Introduce countries in order of increasing safety

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48 Cut fatalities in half

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