THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS: PRACTICAL TARGETS FOR REDUCING EXTREME POVERTY Integrated Approaches to Sustainable Development Practice For class on: 29 January 2008 John W McArthur, Columbia University

TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT? WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs? WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS? WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN? WHAT WILL IT COST?

THE MILLENNIUM PROMISE We will spare no effort to free our fellow men, women and children from the abject and dehumanizing conditions of extreme poverty, to which more than a billion of them are currently subjected. - Millennium Declaration, September 2000

THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS 1.Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 2.Achieve universal primary education 3.Promote gender equality and empower women 4.Reduce child mortality 5.Improve maternal health 6.Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases 7.Ensure environmental sustainability 8.Develop a global partnership for development

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TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT? WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs? WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS? WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN? WHAT WILL IT COST?

GLOBAL MAP OF EXTREME POVERTY: INFANT MORTALITY AND % UNDERWEIGHT Source: UN Millennium Project/CIESIN, 2005

Source: [ ]

MDG Reference Date (1990)

Source: Chen and Ravallion 2007

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Source: JD Sachs Source: [ ]

GLOBAL MAP OF EXTREME POVERTY: INFANT MORTALITY AND % UNDERWEIGHT Source: UN Millennium Project/CIESIN, 2005

TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT? WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs? WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS? WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN? WHAT WILL IT COST?

FOUR REASONS FOR SHORTFALLS Governance failures Areas of specific policy neglect Poverty traps Pockets of poverty

Source: UN Millennium Project

THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2005

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF DROUGHT RISK (mortality) Source: [ ]

ECOLOGICAL FACTORS CONDUCIVE TO MALARIA Source: Kiszewski et al., AJTMH, 2004

HUMAN VULNERABILITY INDEX: Agriculture, Transport & Malaria risk Source: []

TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT? WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs? WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS? WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN? WHAT WILL IT COST?

BASIC CONCEPTS: GROWTH, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION & THE MDGs Source: UN Millennium Project

THE MDGs REQUIRE INTEGRATED STRATEGIES ACROSS SECTORS health infrastructure agricultural productivity watereducation gender equality environmental management

PRACTICAL PROBLEMS PROBLEM (e.g.) Low food yield Malaria AIDS Maternal mortality Low primary enrolment Lack of physical access to markets

PRACTICAL PROBLEMS => PRACTICAL SOLUTIONS PROBLEM (e.g.)INTERVENTION (e.g.) Low food yieldFertilizer, seeds, water MalariaBednets, ACTs, spraying AIDSAnteretrovirals, condoms Maternal mortalityEmergency obstetrical care Low primary enrolment Abolish school fees, introduce school meals, train teachers Lack of physical access to marketsRoads, ports

THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2005

THE ROLE OF INPUTS FOR AGRICULTURE

EARLY SUCCESS IN MALAWI Source: [ ]

THE MDGs ARE FEASIBLE Countries can break out of poverty if: 1.Broad-based integrated investments are implemented – at scale – in known practical technologies for health, education, agriculture, infrastructure, and environmental management 2.Sound policies and governance are in place, including good economic management 3.Improved market access bolsters economic progress But there is no “magic bullet”

THE MDGs REQUIRE GROWTH AND INVESTMENT Growth is necessary, but not sufficient, for MDGs Some MDGs require direct investments regardless of economic growth (e.g. maternal mortality, environmental sustainability) Reaching the poor & reducing inequality requires direct investments in people, infrastructure & environment AND Public investments in the MDGs are critical for growth Private sector-led growth requires minimum standards in health, education, infrastructure Direct investments must complement good economic policies

5 CORE ELEMENTS OF AN MDG-BASED STRATEGY 1.Ambition: Aims are at least as ambitious as MDG targets for Scope: The range of sectors identified is broad enough to achieve all the MDGs 3.Practicality: For each sector, the strategy is based on a detailed, bottom-up assessment of practical needs 4.Timeline: The medium term strategy is nested in a 10-year framework 5.Financing: The financing is aligned with needs

TODAY’S FIVE KEY TOPICS WHAT ARE THE MDGs & WHY ARE THEY IMPORTANT? WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE MDGs? WHY ARE THERE SHORTFALLS? WHAT PRACTICAL STEPS CAN BE TAKEN? WHAT WILL IT COST?

$ per capita (USD 2002) Source: [ ]

SOURCES OF FINANCE: EXAMPLE OF GHANA $ billions (USD 2002) Source: [ ]

CURRENT GLOBAL FINANCE EFFORT Source: [ ]

UNPACKING THE NUMBERS: TODAY’S SUPPORT TO AFRICA Source: OECD-DAC, 2006

MILLENNIUM VILLAGES

Source: JW McArthur

Source: C Bahadur

Source: JD Sachs

Source: JW McArthur

WHERE WE STAND WITH 7 YEARS TO GO Are we on course to look back, in 2015, and say that no effort was spared? So far the record is mixed. - Kofi Annan, August 2006