Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering Climate Information & Decision Support Systems.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

: A service of the Southeast Climate Consortium C. Fraisse, D. Zierden, and J. Paz Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop Chapel Hill, NC March.

Advertisements

Southeast Climate Consortium Extension Program C. W. Fraisse, J. Bellow, N. Breuer, V. Cabrera, J. W. Jones, K. Ingram, and G. Hoogenboom.

Click to edit Master title style Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Judy Lawrence Director, New Zealand Climate Change Office Ministry.

WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND FARMERS: AN OVERVIEW : Roger Stone Expert meeting November 2004.

Climate changes in Southern Africa; downscaling future (IPCC) projections Olivier Crespo Thanks to M. Tadross Climate Systems Analysis Group University.

AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering climate-based information to stakeholders in agriculture Joel O. Paz, Clyde W. Fraisse, Norman E. Breuer, John G. Bellow.

Climate Data and Crop Modeling Joel Paz, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Axel Garcia y Garcia, Larry Guerra, Clyde Fraisse and James W. Jones The University of Georgia.

Climate Variability and Climate Change: Decision Making under Uncertainty Gerrit Hoogenboom Director, AgWeatherNet & Professor of Agrometeorology Washington.

Climate Smart Agriculture East Africa Regional Knowledge Sharing Meeting Thomas Cole June 11, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Priorities of Soil Management for Extreme Events and Drought Charles W. Rice University Distinguished Professor Soil Microbiology Department of Agronomy.

Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates.

AG OUTLOOK LA NIÑA WINTER 2010 Clyde Fraisse Agricultural and Biological Engineering University of Florida November 18, 2010 Albany, GA.

Atlantic Agriculture in a Changing Climate David Burton, Ph.D, P.Ag Climate Change Chair NSAC.

AGRICULTURE AND AGRI-FOOD CANADA PRESENTATION TO : The Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry February 24, Regina.

Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment for Thailand Water Resource Management Porranee Thanapakpawin Surajate Boonya-Aroonnet Pintip Vajarothai Aungkana.

Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers’ Decision-Making T. A. Crane*, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+,

Climate Variability and Irrigation Water Use Joel O. Paz Extension Agrometeorologist Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department The University.

U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N What.

Decision support system for risk reduction in agriculture Phase II: Soybean DSS for Eastern Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil IAI Small Grant Program.

Strawberry Disease Monitoring and Forecasting System Clyde Fraisse Willigthon Pavan Natália Peres University of Florida Climate Prediction Applications.

Agricultural Research, Tools, and, Engagement, Senthold Asseng, Wendy-Lin Bartels, Dan Dourte, Clyde Fraisse, Carrie Furman, Pam Knox, Brenda Ortiz, George.

Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Canadian Agriculture and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities.

India’s Water Crisis El Niño, Monsoon, and Indian Ocean Oscillation.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA: SCIENCE, RISK AND VULNERABILITY Dr Lisa Frost Ramsay

SECC Partners Florida State Univeristy – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry University of Florida – extension, crop modeling,

Using Climate Forecasts in Agriculture State Agricultural Response Team2.

Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University.

Making sure we can handle the extremes! Carolyn Olson, Ph.D. 90 th Annual Outlook Forum February 20-21, 2014.

Learning objective: To be able to explain the causes and characteristics of droughts Regional distribution of disasters by type [ ] Describe.

Developing Improved Climate Products for Effective Climate Risk Management C. F. Ropelewski International Research Institute for Climate and Society The.

Drought Monitor Primer Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA.

AgClimate: Web-based Climate Information & Decision Aid Tools Clyde W. Fraisse Climate Extension Specialist Agric. & Biol. Engineering – IFAS University.

2015 Monsoon Season Outlook Daniel Henz Meteorologist Flood Warning Branch Flood Warning Users Workshop June 24, 2015 Phoenix, Arizona Monsoon t-storm.

Trends and spatial patterns of drought incidence in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia Policy Brief Degefu MA. & Bewket W.

El Niño outlook Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Southeast Climate Consortium: Introduction and Background Upton Hatch Professor and Director Auburn University Environmental Institute Alabama Water Resources.

Approaches to Seasonal Drought Prediction Bradfield Lyon CONAGUA Workshop Nov, 2014 Mexico City, Mexico.

National Integrated Drought Information System – NIDIS December 1, 2011 – Lake Lanier Resort Current Drought Impacts and Mitigation Options for the Agriculture.

Use of Climate Forecast as a Tool to Increase Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Wheat Brenda V. Ortiz 1, Reshmi Sarkar 1, Kip Balkcom 2, Melissa Rodriguez 3,

Issues and Challenges from Case Studies: Synthesis of Discussions.

AgClimate: A Research Extension Partnership Clyde Fraisse University of Florida IFAS Extension.

Climate: Outlook and Operational Planning Jayantha Obeysekera (’Obey’), Ph.D.,P.E.,D.WRE Department Director Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling.

Building Community Resilience in the Face of Increased Vulnerability to Extreme Weather & Water Events Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR.

Climate Outlook – 2011/2012 Nadraki Weather

Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture.

July 25, 2001 presents “Past, Present, and Future” Ed Kieser.

Abnormal Weather October 22, Teleconnections Teleconnections: relationship between weather or climate patterns at two widely separated locations.

SCOR Group results at September 30, 2005 November 3, 2005 Potential use of historical reanalysis by agricultural re/insurance industry Olena Sosenko Australia.

A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist – Associate Professor Engineering.

Exploring management options for more resilient and efficient systems Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA) September 3-5, 2014 Athens, GA.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Implications for Agriculture in the Asia-Pacific Region Andrew Ash Interim Director CSIRO Climate Adaptation.

Integrating Climate Variability and Forecasts into Risk- Based Management Tools for Agricultural Production and Resource Conservation Jean L. Steiner Jurgen.

SECC Overview Senthold Asseng. NOAA 's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments ( RISA ) program “…supports research teams that help expand and build.

Socio-political aspects of adapting to Climate Change Geoff Syme Research Director - Society, Economy & Policy CSIRO Land and Water August.

El Nino 101 and Impacts from Recent El Nino Events Chip Konrad Director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina at Chapel.

Winter Weather Forecast How Windy Will in Be? Professor Cliff Mass University of Washington.

“Development of Community Water Deficit Index (CWDI) for small to mid-size communities of Southeastern United States” “Development of Community Water Deficit.

U2U Tools and Educational Resources U2U Training Webinar May 6, 2015 Chad Hart Iowa State University

U2U: Considering Climate Data in Agricultural Decisions The Current Via Webinar May 27, 2014 Chad Hart Iowa State University

Climate Risk Management Approach in the IRI (from months, through decades, to long-term climate change) Four Pillars Identify Vulnerabilities and Opportunities.

User-driven Climate Forecasts in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Assistant State Climatologist Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The.

What is El Nino?. El Nino is a weather cycle – a naturally occurring weather episode that sees the warm waters of the central Pacific expand eastwards.

Developing the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI): Monitoring Vegetation Stress from a Local to National Scale Brian Wardlow National Drought Mitigation.

Romania: Low-Carbon Growth Options and Climate Adaptation Efforts in the Agriculture Sector m Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop May 11/12, 2016.

Weather index insurance, climate variability and change and adoption of improved production technology among smallholder farmers in Ghana Francis Hypolite.

An Agriculture Perspective

CLIMATE CHANGE – FUNDAMENTALS

Policy to Mitigate Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability

Building novel protein-based biosensors

Presentation transcript:

Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering Climate Information & Decision Support Systems

Dual-purpose of Climate DSS Education Service C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Drivers of climate variability and change (ENSO, long-term climate projections) Effects and potential implications on the SE Climate and worldwide Impacts of variability/change on agricultural commodities and water resources Risk mitigation and adaptation strategies Improve resource use efficiency (irrigation management, carbon & water footprints) Education Components How cover crops, pasture-based rotation systems, variable rate irrigation help mitigating climate-related risk? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Climate monitoring Short-term and seasonal forecasts Translation to ag- related variables (Degree-days, chill hours, crop yield) Alert systems (freezes, disease risk) Service Components NOAA monitors the Pacific Ocean but UF-IFAS monitors your field! C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Monitoring & Weather Forecast What field can I work on this afternoon? When can I plant my seeds? Should I apply N fertilizer to my fields? Will it be dry enough to harvest? Should I cut hay today? Cold protection tonight? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Flooded peanut field. Doug Mayo – August Blueberry freeze, UF-IFAS, February 2002.

Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions Seasonal Climate Forecast Strategic Decisions Best crop/variety to plant this season? How much should I invest in fertilizer? How to apply N? Should I purchase/increase crop insurance coverage? Marketing decisions? Should I invest in winter pasture or feed? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Long-term Climate Projections ? ? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national policy and long-term planning Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions”

Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions Long-term Climate Projections ? ? How do I become more resilient to climate extremes? Should I invest in land somewhere else? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult! One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions” C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS * Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national or regional planning

Dual-Purpose of Climate DSS – Our Vision Timeframe Priority / Intensity Climate Monitoring Short-term forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Service Education Should we concentrate efforts here? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Fraisse et al Dual-purpose of climate DSS (in preparation).

Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Timeframe Intensity Climate Monitoring Short-term forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Forecast Confidence Uncertainty C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Timeframe Intensity Climate Monitoring Short-term forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Smartphones Web-based DSS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Different Perspectives of the Same Problem Timeframe Temporal resolution Climate Monitoring Short-term forecast Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection Information Temporal Resolution C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Adaptation Strategies (seasonal variability and climate change) Resilient production systems One Cropping Season Multiple Cropping Seasons One to several generations Weather Monitoring & Forecast Climate Change Weather monitoring Short term forecast Climate change scenarios Scale of climate variability Seasonal Climate Variability Our Vision for AgroClimate Seasonal forecast Producers, Natural Resource Managers From climate variability to climate change: Challenges and opportunities to extension (Fraisse et al. 2009). Research Fraisse, C.W. Agricultural & Biological Engineering University of Florida-IFAS Climate Extension

HOME TOOLS FORECASTS STATE SUMMARIES MANAGEMENT CLIMATE EXTENSION ABOUT

C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Examples of questions that AgroClimate can help answering 1.Effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in our climate? 2.Levels of water stress in the SE? 3.Typical carbon footprint of corn produced in the SE USA? 4.Current strawberry disease risk? Should I apply fungicide? 5.Best peanut planting dates during La Niña years (water stress)? C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Average rainfall – Neutral years

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Average rainfall – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average – El Niño years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability distribution – Rainfall La Niña years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 37% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years 63% C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, current year C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, last 5 years C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Number of days with moderate or high Botrytis risk in Plant City, FL Chill accumulation (hours per season), Marion County, FL. ENSO Impacts El Niño La Niña

AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Carbon footprint calculator - StrawberryAgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

SAS App Monitors infection risk for Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot Users receive notification messages when the model detects a potential infection risk according to observed weather conditions.

1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

1.Weather and crop monitoring 2.Strawberry disease alert Available October 2014 C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

SAS – Behind the DSS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

AgroClimate Management: Conservatoin Tillage C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Thank you! Interested in organizing an AgroClimate workshop in your area? Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering University of Florida – IFAS– ext 271