The Race to Inner Space: Seeing, Guiding, and Benefiting from Humanity’s Faster, Smaller, Smarter, and Wealthier Future Global Future 2045 Feb 2012  Moscow, Russia John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating.org/slides

Evolution and Development Two Basic Processes of Universal Change

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2011 Accelerating.org Evolution and Development: See them in Life, See them in the Universe Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins: Their thumbprints, brain wiring, ideas, behaviors, local processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin. But many ‘large things’ end up predictably the same, due to special initial conditions and constant physical law. If the Universe is Like Life, unpredictable and creative evolutionary process works with predictable and convergent developmental process to create universal complexity. Chaos / Chance Predetermination / Necessity

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2011 Accelerating.org Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change “Experimentation” Stochastic Search Strange Attractors Radiation Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’ “Convergent Unification” Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy “Natural Selection” Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adaptation Evo Devo (Intersection) Evo Devo Universe?Evo Devo Universe?, J. Smart, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Three processes (telos) can be seen in:  Technological Systems  Societal Systems  Biological Systems  Chemical Systems  Physical Systems Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Basic Processes in All Complex Systems © 2011 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Universe?Evo Devo Universe?, J. Smart, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Classical Quantitative Relationships in Complex Systems Normal curvePower law S curve © 2011 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2011 Accelerating.org Human Society Also Uses Evolution, Development, and Evo Devo Processes Ref: Jacob Bronowski, Science and Human Values, 1965

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2011 Accelerating.org The “95% vs. 5%” Ratio: Evolution vs. Development Examples: ▪Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97% of Dictyostelium DNA) change often to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (3%) which form the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved. ▪Almost all cells in an organism compete for their location. A special few are fated in advance to particular locations early in development. ▪Almost all ideas and actions in an organism are experiments. A special few become stable strategies, across many environments. ▪Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary experiments. A few are developments destined to be the next big thing. Almost all (roughly 95%) of the events and computation to create or control a complex system are bottom-up evolutionary processes. A small critical subset (~5%) are top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes. 5% Devo 95% Evo

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples: Experimentation + Selection + Convergent Unification Transition from “quantum darwinism” to classical physics (relativity, thermo, classical mechanics) physics (Zurek 2005) Stellar evolutionary nucleosynthesis to life cycle (Clayton 1968) Molecular evolution to biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006) Multicellular evolution to tissue types (Newman and Bhat 2008) ‘Neural Darwinism’ to brain development (Edelman 1989) Cognitive selectionism to conscious thinking (Calvin 1985) ‘Memetic’ imagination to moral universals (Wright 2000) ‘Technetic’ selection to technological archetypes (Kelly 2010) Evolutionary computation to artificial intelligence (Koza 1998) Cosmological natural selection to universe devel. (Smolin 1992) EvoDevoUniverse.com

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2008 Accelerating.org© 2007 Accelerating.org Evolutionary Convergences (Developmental Attractors): A Few Examples Evolutionary convergences are developmental attractors in a hierarchical informational computational universe: Organic (carbon) chemistry (vs. silicon, boron, etc.) Amino acids, purines&pyrimidines, pre-lipids as cell precursors RNA as enzyme and code for protein architectures (Woese) Dynamical pattern modules in multicellularity (Newman 2008) Antifreeze molecules in northern and southern polar fish Placental vs. marsupial mice, moles, rabbits, wolves, tigers, etc. Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, fins, emotions (Morris) Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form Prehensile limbs, opposable thumbs, anthropoids (Russell) Mimicry memetics (languages) gestural, behavioral, oral, written Neolithic+ tools (rock, club, spear, lever, rope, wheel, pulley) Internal combustion engine, metallurgy, chemistry, electronics, Math, science, computers, internet, cellphones… Next?

Accelerating Change Evolutionary and Developmental Drivers of the Race to Inner Space

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar: U-Shaped Curve of Complexity Development © 2011 Accelerating.org

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A U-Shaped Curve of Change: Inner Space to Outer Space Back to Inner Space Again Big Bang Singularity 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap. 1B yrs: Protogalaxies8B yrs: Earth 400,000 yrs: Matter 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds Developmental Singularity?

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Reproduction and Birth are Energetically Accelerative in Complex Living Systems Note the energy flow trends in each phase of the life cycle (birth, growth, reproduction, senescence) of a developing organism. Only reproduction and birth phases are accelerative in living systems. Stellar reproduction (via supernovas) has the same energetics profile. Key Question: In an evo devo universe, does complexity accelerate because it is engaged in a process of universal reproduction? Salthe, Development and Evolution, 1990

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Free Energy (Phi, Φ) of Dissipative Systems: A Hyperbolic Curve of Universal Development Free energy flow density values in hierarchically emergent CAS. Energy Flow Density (Φ) Substrate(ergs/sec/gm) Global AI of the 21st C 10^12+ Pentium II of the 1990's (10^11) Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10 Modern Engines10^5 to 10^8 Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5) Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5) Animals (hum. body) 20,000 (10^4) Ecosystems 900 Planets (Early) 75 Stars 2 Galaxies 0.5 Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001

Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2011 Accelerating.org Infotech/Simulation - Virtual Inner Space - Evolution  “As Intelligence Rises, Thinking Becomes More Adaptive Than Acting”  Adult humans no longer act in novel ways, they think in novel ways.  Simulations allow “ephemeralization” (far less mass/energy per action)  Rise of scientific simulations. IPCC. NASA Solar System Simulator  Telepresence outcompetes traveling for perception  Telerobotics/haptics outcompetes traveling for action  Google maps, sensors, geoweb, parallelized GPUs: visual cortex for the web.  Machine sim data doubles every 2 years. Human sims grow far slower. Nanotech/Engineering - Physical Inner Space - Development  “There’s Plenty of Performance at the Bottom.”  Fission 1,000X more E than chem. Fusion 1,000X more E than fission  Fuel cells store 100,000X more E/mass than chemical batteries  Synthetic catalysts increase reaction speeds & yields 1,000-1,000,000X  Programmable synapses use 10^6 less E per comp. than neurons  Photonic crystal lasers 10^6 more E efficient than other microlasers  Single step efficiency jumps in macro (human) space are always far less The Race to Inner Space: Civilization’s Hidden Strategic Objectives The Transcension HypothesisThe Transcension Hypothesis, J.Smart, 2011; The Future of Scientific Simulations, C. Vidal, 2008The Future of Scientific Simulations