1. Global Grand Challenges: Strategic Vision, Self-Knowledge, Tools and Network Singularity University June 2012  Mountain View, CA John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation johnsmart@accelerating.org Slides: accelerating.org/slides

2. Strategic Vision What Grand Challenges Motivate You?

3. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2012 Accelerating.org Strategic Vision: What’s Your Theory of Change? Of Progress? Good foresight relies on theories and hypotheses of change. Good theories of change include values, and an idea of progress. I co-founded a community of scholars study complex systems from a combination of evolutionary variation, adaptive selection, and developmental optimization approaches. More at: EvoDevoUniverse.com BuryBury, 1920

4. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2012 Accelerating.org Evolution, Computation, and Development: Three Drivers and Two Patterns Found in All Complex Systems Chance Evolution Unpredictable/ Not optimized Necessity Development Predictable/ Optimized Utility Computation/ Adaptation/Selection Partial predictability/optimization Science and Human ValuesScience and Human Values, Bronowski, 1965, Trialogue The Structure of Evolutionary TheoryThe Structure of Evolutionary Theory, Gould, 2002, p. 1052 The Plausibility of LifeThe Plausibility of Life, Kirschner & Gerhart, 2005, p. 219 Evo Devo Universe?Evo Devo Universe?, Smart, 2008, p. 18 What Technology Wants, Kelly, 2010, p. 123 What Technology Wants “Funnels” Unifying, Universal “Trees” Diversifying, Local

5. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Freedom, Intelligence, and Security: Three Values of Social Progress

6. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2012 Accelerating.org Three Intelligence Singularities: The Universe, Life, and Minds Is the Universe a type of computer? It sure looks like one. Are organisms a type of computer? They compute at the gene and cell level. Is the human mind a type of Computer? Yep.

7. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Cryonics (since 1967) $90,000 per person Are You Your Connectome? Plastination (1930+) $20,000 per person? Formalin (1880+) $3,000 per person? Brainpreservation.org Brain Preservation Technology Prize - $120K Do any of these three techniques perfectly preserve the connectome? Can we radically lower the cost of saving memories and identities? If so, will this service have positive global social effects?

8. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2012 Accelerating.org Developmental Funnels (Universal Attractors) Are Scarce, and the Hardest to See and Prove In Chemistry: Carbon (“organic”) chemistry (vs. silicon, boron, etc.) for life Amino acids, purines, pyrimidines, pre-lipids as cell precursors RNA as enzyme and code for protein architectures In Biology: Universal pattern modules in multicellularity Antifreeze molecules in northern and southern polar fish Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, fins, emotions Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form Placental vs. marsupial mice, moles, rabbits, wolves, tigers, etc. Prehensile limbs, opposable thumbs, anthropoids In Society: Mimicry memetics (languages) behavioral → gestural → oral → written Moral codes, property, capitalism, rights, democracy, conflict control In Technology: Neolithic tools (rock, club, spear). Later: lever, rope, wheel, pulley Metallurgy, chemistry, electronics, internal combustion engines, Math, science, computers, internet, cell phones… Next? Convergent EvolutionConvergent Evolution, 2011; Better Angels of Our Nature, 2011; What Technology Wants, 2010Better Angels of Our NatureWhat Technology Wants

9. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit In this model, we can assess any person, org, or system as either: 1. A Learning (“Adaptive”) System (hiding evo and devo processes) 2. A Protecting & Innovating (“Sustainable Innovation”) System (hiding #1) 3. An Innovating, Learning and Protecting System (keeping all three explicit) Innovation, Learning, and Protecting: Three Basic Leadership Challenges © 2012 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Universe?Evo Devo Universe?, Smart, 2008, p. 10

10. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2012 Accelerating.org Ten Areas of Technological Change Newest “Steerer” of Accelerating Change: 1. Information Technologies Newest “Engine” of Accelerating Change: 2. Nanoscience and Nanotechnologies Human Intelligence Technologies: 3. Resource Technologies 4. Engineering Technologies 5. Health Technologies 6. Social Technologies 7. Cognitive Technologies 8. Economic Technologies 9. Political Technologies 10. Security Technologies Ten Areas of Technological ChangeTen Areas of Technological Change (and 30 Books For Further Reading), Smart, 2012

11. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Acknowledging the Strongest Levers: Infotech and Nanotech "Give me a lever long enough, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world." - Archimedes of Syracuse, 287-212 BCE © 2012 Accelerating.org

12. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2011 Accelerating.org Infotech/Simulation - Virtual Inner Space – “Steerer”  “As Intelligence Rises, Thinking Becomes More Adaptive Than Acting”  Adult humans no longer act in novel ways, they think in novel ways.  Simulations allow “ephemeralization” (far less mass/energy per action)  Rise of scientific simulations. NSF. IPCC. NASA Solar System Simulator  Telepresence outcompetes traveling for perception  Telerobotics/haptics outcompetes traveling for action  Google maps, sensors, geoweb, parallelized GPUs: visual cortex for the web.  Machine sim data doubles every 2 years. Human sims grow far slower. Nanoscience/Nanotech - Physical Inner Space – “Engine”  “There’s Plenty of Performance at the Bottom.”  Fission 1,000X more E/mass than chem. Fusion 1,000X more E than fission  Fuel cells store 100,000X more E/mass than chemical batteries  Synthetic catalysts increase reaction speeds and yields 10^3 to 10^6  Programmable synapses 10^6 faster, 10^3 less E/comp. than neurons  Photonic crystal lasers 10^6 more E efficient than other microlasers  Single step efficiency jumps in macro (human) space are always far less. The “Race to Inner Space:” The New Steerer and Engine of Accelerating Change Info: Intelligence, Fischler, 1987; Simulation, Ross, 2006; Simulation-Based Engineering Science, NSF, 2006.IntelligenceSimulationSimulation-Based Engineering Science Nano: Engines of Creation, Drexler, 1987; Nanotechnology, Ratner, 2002; The Race to Inner Space, Smart, 2012.Engines of CreationNanotechnologyThe Race to Inner Space

13. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2012 Accelerating.org The Transcension Hypothesis: Our Developmental Destiny? The Transcension Hypothesis: Do Advanced Civilizations Leave Our Universe?The Transcension Hypothesis: Do Advanced Civilizations Leave Our Universe?, John Smart, Acta Astronautica, 11 Dec 2011. Earthrise (Dec 1968) Earth as a tiny point of emergent intelligence Is our future even tinier?

14. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Grand Challenge - Information Technologies © 2012 Accelerating.org -Computing (Super, Enterprise, Personal, Mobile, Web) -Communication and Networks -Big Data, Maps, Algorithms and Simulations -Conversational Interface -Agents and Cybertwins  What Grand Challenges would be most improved by an order of magnitude or more individual, organizational, or system intelligence or interdependence in: Apple’s Siri on iPhone 4, 2011 Google Now on Nexus 7 & Android 4.1, 2012 Google Now on Glass, Dev: Jan 2013 The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap ForwardThe Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward, John Smart, 2003-10.

15. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Global English: An Education Grand Challenge © 2012 Accelerating.org One Tablet-Laptop Per Child (Asus Transformer Prime 2012) Global English via Teacherless Education 1.8 Billion English speakers today. In 10 Years? How many of the “Next Two Billion” will learn the leading global language? How soon till a free Global English is more effective than Rosetta Stone? Conversational Interface. Visual Learning. Aug. Reality. Contextual Learning. Camera. Spaced Repetition Learning. Adaptive Testing. Crowd/Peer Education. How soon till top-rated Eng. speakers are on LinkedIn & in global job networks? How soon till we have one billion new Eng. speakers in the global workforce? Top call center country in the world today? Partners: English Speaking Business Community. English Learners. ‘Wrist PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap, 2007)Metaverse Roadmap (also Poverty, Security, Health, Energy, Food, Water, Environment) Google Now on Glass (Dev: Jan 2013) $400

16. Self-Knowledge Who Are You? Who Can You Become?

17. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit From Self-Diagnosis to People Management © 2012 Accelerating.org -Great Self-Diagnosis (Kirton, SF, Adizes, etc) helps Social Effectiveness -Great Self-Knowledge & Self-Management helps People Management

18. Your Tools Buying and Sharpening Your Knives

19. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Innovation, Strategy, and Foresight: Three Organizational Toolsets Emerging Technologies MS – Curriculum FrameworkEmerging Technologies MS – Curriculum Framework, Univ of Advancing Technology, Smart, 2011.

20. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit “50 Solutions that Can Change the World” Collect and Rank Your Best Grand Challenge Ideas 1. Innovation Ranking and Innovation Mgmt Platforms 2. Benefit-Cost Analysis Benefitcostanalysis.org 20042014? Tools to get there:

21. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit For Controversial Problems: Take a “Schools of Thought (SoT)” Approach What are top SoT’s (World Views) on causes of the problem? Who are their best proponents? What are their solutions? What data would help reduce the number of SoTs, or clarify the conditions when each is right? Ending Hunger, 1985 Excellent example of SoT approach. The Hunger Project (thp.org)

22. Your Network Digital, Global, Personal

23. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Foresight and Innovation (F&I) Education FERNweb.org GlobalForesight.org There are now ~23 universities where you can get a grad degree in F&I, and ~six good certificate programs. Best by far is SU! FERN networks foresight grad students and helps them find good jobs. GlobalForesight is a wiki of foresight orgs, resources and people.

24. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit What Are Your Networks Doing For You? 2012 Nosedive: 8M  2.5M Users Val: $66BVal: $11BVal: $190B Be an aggressive user of the best of your networks. Often they aren’t the ones most people think are the best.