“How to Solve Urban Transportation Problems Through Innovation” J. Edward Anderson, Ph.D., P. E. Managing Director PRT International, LLC Former Professor of Mechanical Engineering University of Minnesota & Boston University advancedtransit.org

We call our solution to Urban Transportation Problems “An Intelligent Transportation Network System” “ITNS” generically it has been called Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

Here is what I will discuss: 1.Urban Transportation problems 2.Approach to solution 3.The Design Process 4.Criteria for solution 5.How to meet the criteria 6.Some tradeoff issues and conclusions 7.Capacity and Control 8.Safety, Reliability, and Life-Cycle Cost 9.How the system is used 10.Significant activity around the world 11.Cost comparisons with conventional rail 12.Land savings 13.Energy savings 14.Benefits 15.Our next steps 16.Why is PRT being implemented first overseas?

Problems with Urban Transportation  The high and rising price of oil.  2006: 4.9 each hour killed, 294 each hour injured, NHSB.  People who cannot or should not drive – lack of equity.  Excessive congestion.  Local, regional, international air pollution. Effects on the climate.  Excessive sprawl.  Road rage.  Large subsidies for transit.  60% of transportation budget for 3% of trips

Approach to Solution: Be aware of prior work on old and new systems. Begin with no commitment to any existing transit system or to any particular technology. Determine to design a system that will address all of the problems listed.

Design Process  Study urban transportation as an interdisciplinary issue.  Identify the Problems.  Understand all factors that influence ridership.  Understand all factors that determine cost.  Engage in detailed site-specific planning studies.  Conduct courses in transport planning and technology.  Clarify concepts, give presentations, and receive feedback.  Conduct conferences, visit work of others.  Develop design criteria.  Identify technical issues.  Analyze and resolve technical issues.  Only now engage in detailed design.  Practice ”15 Rules of Engineering Design,”

Criteria for Design A better system must be  Time competitive with the auto  Operational with renewable energy sources  Low in energy use  Low in air and noise pollution  Safe, secure, reliable, and comfortable  Easy to use  Low in land and material use  Available at all times to everyone.

More Design Criteria  Adequate in capacity  Visually acceptable  All weather  Compliant with Americans with Disabilities Act  Expandable in area coverage  Operable at competitive speeds  Designed for minimum cost & maximum ridership  An unattractive target for terrorists.

Key Transit Concept: Cost per passenger-mile = Cost/year  Passenger-miles/year Problem: Develop system-significant equation for cost per passenger-mile to clarify the system characteristics that minimize it. “Optimization of Transit System Characteristics,”

Conclusion: The characteristics of a system that minimize cost also maximize ridership and define the system we now call An Intelligent Transportation Network System (ITNS)

Guideway weight reduction 20:1 Small fully automated vehicles! Large manually driven vehicles.

Fleet Cost = Cost/Vehicle Capacity  People-Carrying Capacity Suppose 15 vehicles each averaging 10 mph provide a given people-carrying capacity. Then 6 vehicles averaging 25 mph provide same capacity.

The average speed is highest if there are no intermediate stops, which are not necessary if stops are off-line just like on a freeway. Conclusions: Guideway cost is minimized by using minimum weight vehicles. Vehicle fleet cost is minimized by using off-line stations. This combination makes a major breakthrough!

 Nonstop trips  High average speed  Minimum fleet size & cost  High throughput  Small vehicles  Small, low-cost guideway Now interesting things happen:  Vehicles run only on demand, not on a schedule  Service is always available, the wait is short to none  Close station spacing does not decrease average speed  Stations can be sized to demand  You ride with chosen companions or alone All lead to high ridership and low cost. Transit Systems Theory, Off-Line Stations are The Key Breakthrough! Off-Line Stations are The Key Breakthrough!

Consider 3 of 45 Tradeoff Issues For the whole list see

Issue: Suspension Air cushion Magnetic (maglev) Sled runners Wheels “Maglev vs. Wheeled PRT”,

Issue: Propulsion Rotary motors – internal combustion, electric, steam Air Cables Linear electric motors – induction (LIM), synchronous (LSM) – Issues: Guideway size & cost, control flexibility, maintenance. “Safe Design of PRT,”

Issue: Supported vs. Hanging Vehicles “Supported vs. Hanging Vehicles”, Visual Impact Cost of posts & Foundations Natural Frequency Ease of Switching Rider Security All-Weather Operation Torsion in Curves

U-Frame Vertical Chassis Wheeled support

Covers shield from Sun EM Radiation Winter night sky Snow & ice Covers Minimize Air Drag Permit maintenance Permit appearance totto be customized “An Intelligent Transportation Network System,”

LIM VFD Batter y Shear Plate

The Guideway is a covered steel truss structure designed for 90-ft spans. See “Structural Properties of a PRT Guideway,” for calculations of stress, deflection, critical speed, the 32 design criteria, and how they are met. The foundations, posts, and guideway can be installed in front of a store in a day or two. Businesses are not disrupted.

This system won competitions in Chicago, SeaTac & Cincinnati U-shaped door permits easy entry. The vehicle interior is wide enough to permit wheelchair entry. Back seat is therefore wide enough to accommodate three adults. There is room for wheelchair + attendant, or bicycle, or baby stroller, or luggage, and two fold-down seats in front.

Renewable Energy can be used! Solar panels on the guideway covers can produce 400 kW per mile. During the peak period the system needs 200 kW per mile. Excess solar or wind energy can be stored in – Batteries – Compressed air – Flywheels – Hydrogen – Pump-storage

Conventional vs. ITNS

A settlement 20 km west of Stockholm, Sweden.

How do we keep vehicles from crashing? ”PRT Control,” “Longitudinal Control of a Vehicle,” “Failure Modes and Effects Analysis,”  Computers routinely land airplanes on aircraft-carrier decks.  Our computers respond to and correct speed and position two hundred times per second.  Instruments used today to measure position and speed are much more accurate than we need.  Wayside zone controllers monitor vehicle motion.  Code has been developed to control any number of vehicles in networks of any size or configuration. “Some History of PRT Simulation Programs” “Simulation of the Operation of PRT Systems,”

High Capacity with Small Vehicles? Surface-level rail: 6 min between trains in rush period At capacity: 400 people per train or 400×10 = 4000 people per hour ITNS: 2 sec average between cars in rush period At capacity: 3 people per car or 3×1800 = 5,400 people per hour ITNS capacity/Rail capacity = 5,400/4000 = 1.35:1 The common belief that small vehicles mean small capacity is a myth! “PRT: Matching Capacity to Demand,” “The Capacity of High-Capacity PRT Systems”,

In 1973 the UMTA (now FTA) Administrator Frank Herringer told a Congressional Committee: “High-Capacity PRT can carry as many people as rapid rail for a quarter the cost.” The page of the Congressional Record that contains this statement is reproduced on page 11 of the paper “Intelligent Transportation Network System,” which can be downloaded from

Experimental Proof!

System Reliability & Safety ”Safe Design of PRT System,” “Failure Modes & Effects Analysis,”  Vehicle has few moving parts.  Switch has no moving track parts.  Motors have no moving parts.  Motors, sensors, and power supply are redundant.  The computers are Dual Redundant.  Fault-tolerant hardware and software.  We use an exclusive guideway. Result: – Chance of injury is close to zero!

Measure and Calculate System Dependability “Dependability as a Measure of On-Time Performance of PRT Systems,” Dependability = (1 - Person-Hours of Delay due to Failures  Person-Hours of Operation)×100 Calculations show > 99.97% independent of system size! The method permits Dependability to be both calculated in advance and measured in real time as a basis for contract specification.

Problem: Find MTBF of each Component that Minimizes System Life Cycle Cost subject to given Dependability. Solution: Lagrangian constrained minimization problem solved in paper "Life-Cycle Costs and Reliability Allocation in Automated Transit,“

Using the New System

Buy a Prepaid Card. Find destination number from Information Kiosk.

Accessible to wheelchair

Ride nonstop to destination!

Personal Security is Excellent  The stations are well lit.  There is no waiting during off-peak hours.  The stations are monitored by closed-circuit video.  The stations & vehicles have two-way communications with central control.  The stations use motion sensors to detect loiterers.  The ride is private.

Significant Recent PRT Activity following Chicago  City of SeaTac, Washington – 1990’s  Series of studies in Sweden – 1990’s  European Union: “PRT contributes significantly to transport policy and all related policy objectives. “ 2006 Report.  BAA - Heathrow International Airport  To be operating in spring 2009!  Posco Vectus test in Uppsala, Sweden  Santa Cruz, California  State of New Jersey PRT Study released in April  MASDAR, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

ULTra Bristol University, UK Heathrow

Vectus PRT by Posco, South Korea Vectus Posco Steel Co. Uppsala

Cost Comparisons

“Light” rail tranit A transit mode first introduced in 1888.

Minneapolis Rail Cost and Trip Data Data source:  Annualize capital cost:  7% of $715,300,000 = $50,070,000  Annual operating cost: $19,850,000  Total annual cost: $69,920,000  Annual number of trips: 7,267,000  Break-even fare = $69,920,000/7,267,000 = $9.62  Average fare = $0.99  Subsidy per trip = $8.63  Fares cover 10.3% of the total costs. See also

By using off-line stations and small vehicles many more riders can be attracted!  Available anytime of day or night.  No need to understand the system.  Short walk in a wider service area.  Short or zero wait.  A seat for everyone.  Ride alone or with chosen companions.  An enjoyable, nonstop ride.  No transfers.  Short, predictable trip time.  Competitive fare.  At 2003 MN State Fair thousands of people lined up to ride 40 ft.

Land Savings

Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr

300 ft 15 ft Throughput per direction: 6000 cars/hr 300 ft 15 ft

Enormous Land Savings!  Land required only for posts and stations, only 1/5000 th or 0.02% of city land.  Auto system requires  30% of land in residential areas  50% to 70% in downtown  Land savings + high ridership permits safe, zero- pollution, energy-efficient, environmentally friendly, high-density living to an extent not possible with conventional transportation.

A former parking lot!

Energy Savings

Minimum Energy Use  Vehicles run only when needed  No in-route stopping  Lower maximum speeds  Each day, one PRT vehicle handles 6-10 auto trips  Minimizing material use minimizes energy use  Very light-weight vehicles  Smooth, stiff tires for low road resistance  Streamlining for low air drag  Efficient propulsion  Adequate insulation “What determines transit energy use? “,

Benefits

for Riding Public  Everyone can use it including elderly, disabled, and children.  You need to know only your destination, not what line to take and when a vehicle will leave.  Vehicles wait for people, not people for vehicles.  The trips are short, predictable, and nonstop.  The trip cost is competitive.  There is minimum or no waiting.  Everyone has a seat.  The system is always available.  The vehicles are heated and air conditioned.

More benefits for Riding Public  Safe  Quiet  No transfers  No crowding  Minimum anxiety  Private, pleasant ride  You can make good use of your time while riding  Comfortable, jerk-free motion  Space for luggage, wheelchair or bicycle  There is no need for a driver’s license.

Benefits for the Community  Low energy use  Can use renewable energy  Less than one millionth accident rate in autos “Failure Modes & Effects,”  Attractive to many auto users  Reduced congestion  No air pollution  Noise barely audible  Huge land saving: 0.02% vs %  Smaller transit subsidies  Augments existing rail and bus systems. 

More benefits for the Community  No reason for road rage  No significant targets for terrorists  More efficient use of land  More livable high-density communities  More people-attracting parks and gardens  Safe, swift movement of mail, goods and waste  Easier access to jobs, stores, schools, etc.  Faster all-weather, inside-to-inside transportation  Less need for urban expansion ITNS solves all the problems listed!

PRT International, LLC  After 13 years of intensive activity in PRT, I developed a new design that won competitions in Chicago, SeaTac, and Cincinnati.  I was a key participant in a $1,500,000 PRT Design Study.  I designed and supervised construction and operation of one automatically controlled, LIM propelled vehicle that ran flawlessly for thousands of rides – I designed a system that worked!  I have developed detailed Requests for Proposal for final design and construction.  I have attracted engineers and engineering companies needed for the next major step:

A FULL-SCALE TEST PROGRAM 690 ft x 470 ft covering 7.4 acres Total guideway length 0.49 mi One Station and 3 vehicles Max speed: 35 mph In operation in 15 months from notice to proceed. The Engineering Program is ready to go! $20,000,000 for engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and planning for the first application. The pilot program will take about as much time as the planning, and will reduce time to first commercial operation.

Here is why we need the Pilot Program:  To get the system running as quickly as possible  To verify capital and operating costs  To prove safety, reliability, and ride comfort  To determine the insurance rate  To correct errors before the first application  To develop proven plans and specifications  To train engineers and technicians.

Why is PRT starting first overseas?  “Devolution of the Federal Role in Urban Transportation” by Edward Weiner, DOT Office of Sec., Journal of Advanced Transportation, Vol. 18, No. 2, Summer  He said that  Decisions will be guided by the Marketplace.  User fees will cover more of the costs.  But  Cities were told to consider only proven systems.  No means was provided to prove new systems.  Result:  Overpowering pressure to get available federal money now.  New ideas crushed!  Local leaders need to insist that new systems are included in alternatives analyses.

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