Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence Jack G. Zheng May 21 st 2008 MIS Chapter 4

2 Overview Decision support Can computers help people to make decisions? Artificial intelligence Can computers be like human to make decisions?

Decision Support Systems

4 Types of Decision Structured decision There are specific criteria to judge and the answer is certain Example What final letter grade should I give to you? Non-structured decision Criteria are not explicit, or no criteria at all Example How much database material should I cover in CIS2010? Most decisions involves both parts How do I evaluate students performance in the class?

5 Decision Support Systems Decision Support System (DSS) is a type of information system designed specifically to help people make decisions

6 DSS Components

7 DSS Components (2) Data management Storing and maintaining data spreadsheet (data file) database data warehouse User interface (UI) management Nice forms to get user input Various visualizations of analysis output Reports, tables, charts, graphs

8 DSS Components (3) Models: transforming data to decision related information A model is a predefined pattern to process data Calculation: what-if models, goal seeking models Statistical models Optimization Comparison Classification Prediction …

9 DSS Types Model driven Data driven Visualization driven GDSS (Group DSS) GIS (Geographic Information Systems) SDSS (Spatial DSS)

10 Geographic Information Systems GIS is designed specifically to work with spatial information to enhance decision making In GIS, various kind of data are visualized with geographical data (maps) Is GIS just a dynamic map system? Most data can be related to geography Population Sales Weather Traffic Crime …

11 How Does GIS Work? GIS visualizes data as layers Attribute data Spatial data Output

12 GIS Sample Applications Dynamic maps Yahoo!Maps, Google Maps and MapQuestGoogle Maps MS Streets and Trips City and regional planning San Francisco Enterprise GIS SimCity An excellent game using GIS

Artificial Intelligence "His love is real. But he is not."

14 Artificial Intelligence AI (or intelligent systems, knowledge systems) is the technology to let computers to imitate human thinking and behavior in some way What is intelligence? What are intelligent behaviors?

15 Where is AI Used in Computing? Speech recognition Natural language understanding Image/vision processing Robotics Data mining (business use)

16 Business AI Applications Most widely used AI applications/techniques in the business world Expert Systems Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Genetic Algorithm (GA)

17 Expert Systems A system that applies reasoning capabilities, as a human expert does, to reach solutions Also called rule-based system (RBS) or knowledge-based system (KBS) A simple example

18 ES Components An expert system, like any information system, consists of information, people and IT components Domain expertise People Domain expert Knowledge engineer User IT component Figure 4.9 on page 198

19 Expert Systems in Action 1. Rules: a)If age < 25, then loan risk is high b)If annual income < 50k, then loan risk is high c)If loan risk is high, then refuse 4. Gives reason: Age<25 and income <50k high loan risk refuse 3. Pick rules Data: age 21 Matching rule: rule a) Result: high risk Data: income 40k Matching rule: rule b) Result: high risk (New) Data: high risk Matching rule: rule c) Result: refuse loan 2. Incoming data: Age: 21 Annual income: 40k

20 Applications of ES ES is good for diagnostic (whats wrong?) and prescriptive (what to do?) problems Computer or car diagnostic See more demos on Help desk Customer service Technical support

21 Evaluating Expert Systems Benefits Reliable: reduce errors Consistent: provide consistency in decision making Reduce costs and improve productivity … (more in the book) Difficulties and limitations Expertise is implicit: its difficult to explain Modeling process is complex The system cannot learn and adapt to new situations; it has no common sense or judgment Is it really intelligent?

22 Good Resources All about DSS GIS Internet Guide Herbert Simon IBM Deep Blue Intelligent Agents