Discussion of “The French Gold Stock and the Great Deflation” James D. Hamilton University of California, San Diego.

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Presentation transcript:

Discussion of “The French Gold Stock and the Great Deflation” James D. Hamilton University of California, San Diego

Consider an economy with a single produced good (potatoes) aggregate price level = P dollars per potato relative price of gold = R potatoes per ounce of gold dollars per ounce of gold =

Gold standard: dollars per ounce of gold (PR) is fixed If relative price of gold (R) goes up, price level (P) must fall

Monthly wholesale prices

Hyperinflations in Germany, Austria, Poland, Russia, Hungary

1931: European financial distress Failure of Austria’s Credit-Anstalt Bank runs in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Poland, Germany Depositors outside Berlin bank, 1931

Source: Hamilton (1988) Private discount rates in Belgium, Switzerland, and France

Source: Hamilton (1988) Yields on short-term U.S. Treasury securities

Can gold standard restore confidence out of chaos? If government not trustworthy without a gold standard, do you trust it to follow a gold standard? Britain-- no France and U.S.-- yes, but at a cost

Source: Bernanke and James (1991)

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