+ VCSD Strategic Plan Enrollment and Staffing Levels

+ Topics Covered in this Presentation We will review the student enrollment data for the district from 2000 to 2014 We will review the number of teachers and instructional support staff We will draw some inferences from the data presented The source for this data is the New York State Education Department School Report Cards (this data was originally submitted by VCSD to NYSED) – data is from the fall (early October) of each year We will also review enrollment projections based on current enrollment and projections from the NYS Rural Schools Association and the Capital District Regional Planning Commission

+ District Enrollment

+ District Enrollment Trends Voorheesville School District enrollment has declined 10.6% from 2000 to 2014 In the 15 school years in that range, year to year enrollment has declined in 11 of those years, increased slightly (0.3% twice and 0.4%) in 3 years, and remained constant in one year The sharpest decreases year to year were in 2007 and 2009, when enrollment declined by 2.8% in each of those years The % changes year to year in the past 3 years were -2.0 %, +0.3%, and -0.5%

+ Voorheesville Elementary

+ Elementary Enrollment Trends VES Enrollment has declined 5.9% from 2000 – 2014 Peak ES enrollment in the period was 2006 – 549 students Lowest enrollment in the period was 2014 – 494 students The ES experienced declining enrollment in 10 of the years The ES experienced increasing enrollment in 5 of the years Elementary enrollment has declined less steeply than overall district enrollment, and less steeply than the other 2 buildings

+ Voorheesville Middle School

+ Middle School Enrollment Trends Middle School enrollment has declined 22% over the period of 2000 to 2014 Peak enrollment in the period was 2000 – 351 students Lowest enrollment in the period was 2014 – 273 students Middle School enrollment declined in 9 of the years in the period Middle School enrollment increased in the 6 of the years in the period Middle School has experienced the steepest decline in enrollment in the district

+ High School Enrollment

+ High School Enrollment Trends High School enrollment declined 6.7% from 2000 to 2014 The peak HS enrollment was in 2004 – 474 students The lowest HS enrollment was in 2009 – 378 students HS enrollment declined in 9 of the years HS enrollment increased in 6 of the years HS enrollment increased slightly in the last two years of the period (2013 and 2014) HS decline in enrollment has been less steep than that of the district as a whole

+ Total Enrollment by Grade Grade Kdg7871 1st6575 2nd9663 3rd6698 4th th th8287 7th9684 8th9596 9th th th th9997 K-12 Enrollment

+ Impacts of Declining Enrollment Declining enrollment is prevalent throughout upstate NY, and it has several impacts: Decreases district revenues due to state aid being tied to enrollment May cause difficult choices to be made regarding reductions in staff May cause reductions in available programs for students due to staff and program cuts May cause decreased class size if staffing is not cut

+ Projecting Future Enrollment We will look first at the community demographic data We can estimate enrollment for incoming kindergartners We can promote each grade each year to project future enrollment in each grade There are inherent unknowns such as Who will move in and who will move out of the district Who will choose private schools

+ Total Community Population

+ Population under 5 years old

+ % change in under 5 population decade to decade

+ Total Enrollment Projection

+ Indications from Enrollment Projections The population of children under 5 years old has declined significantly for the past 25 years, but now appears to be leveling off The district’s K-12 enrollment is projected to stabilize at just over 1100 students in 2021 (as compared to 1150 in 2015) The district will experience shifts in enrollment from grade to grade as larger and smaller classes move from one grade to the next We need a pre-school census to determine more precisely how enrollment shifts will impact the district – we are conducting the preschool census now

+ Class Sizes and Staffing Levels Based on the data from School Report Cards from , class sizes on average have been quite stable overall, averaging 21 students per class at the elementary and middle levels There have been some staff reductions, but in general those have not increased class sizes Because our grade level enrollments vary from the 60s to 100 plus per grade level, shifting staff from grade to grade has been necessary, and class sizes are not always even

+ Conclusions Regarding Enrollment Enrollment has declined significantly in the past 20 years Total enrollment is projected to stabilize within the next few years We will do a regular pre-school census so that we can anticipate future enrollment changes We will need to shift staff assignments to some degree in the future to accommodate fluctuations in enrollments from grade to grade