Problem Definition Framing Decision Problems Caribbean LCC June 3-4, 9-10 Mitch Eaton DOI – SE Climate Science Center

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Problem Framing for CLCC “The Caribbean LCC Science Plan Development Team wants to do X to achieve Y over time Z and in place W considering B”

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Problem Definition Clearly defining the problem to be addressed guides the rest of the structured decision making process Must Address at Least the Following: 1. Who is/are the decision maker(s)  Scope & jurisdictional breadth 2. What is the actual decision to be made

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Problem Definition The problem statement includes other components essential to finding a viable solution Problem scope & scale Constraints and uncertainties (that impede decisions) Problem definition is the foundation of decision making and often one of the hardest steps in the process

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Human Nature: Assuming the problem has defined itself and moving straight into Alternatives “…we’ve got a problem…” so “…what are we going to do?”  “alternative-focused” thinking

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Value-Focused Thinking Problems are not simply technical or scientific Public decisions involve societal values Benefits include Opens new paths to solutions Greater buy-in by diverse stakeholders Transparency Applies science appropriately & efficiently

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Considerations 1. Is there a recognizable decision? What is a decision? 2. Is the problem tractable? 3. Is the problem framed appropriately? Decision context & objectives compatible? Scale mismatch? Are we all in agreement that we’re solving the right problem?

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service 1) Problems as Decisions Decision defined: An outcome of a cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives “An irrevocable allocation of resources…” (Howard 1966) Relative to who is responsible for the decision Who has authority to select, allocate, etc.?

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service 2) Is the Problem Tractable? Is the problem, as stated, within our ability to solve? Is it tractable? Intractable Problems: Out of ‘our’ control (i.e., boundless, authority)? Require a greater level of investment than available Time, Personnel, Budget, etc. Failure is likely unless we re-define the problem so that it is within our ability to solve

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service 3) Framing the Problem Components of a decision frame: 1. Decision Context Set of alternatives appropriate to consider in the situation. I.e., the activities being considered. Related to objectives b/c they are being deliberated. Must describe all the ways that objectives can be achieved 2. Fundamental Objectives Values made explicit. Describe the basis for the decision context Must be sufficient to evaluate all alternatives under consideration

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Problem frame: matching scale & scope strategic objectives fundamental objectives strategic decision context fundamental decision context Mismatched decision context

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Mis-matches of scale & scope fundamental objectives (why) means objectives (how) fundamental decision context Alternative- focused thinking

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Mis-matches of scale & scope Conserve migratory waterfowl NWR Impoundment Management

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Mis-matches of scale & scope CLCC decision context understand, refine, enhance, establish, analyze, develop, create, overcome, inform, visualize, expand, connect Individual Agency Obj.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Additional framing considerations Trigger Why does a decision need to be made? Frequency & Timing When & how often will the decision be made? Are other decisions linked to this one? Breadth How large, broad, complicated is the problem/decision? Constraints Legal, financial, political, ‘minimum performance’ Perceived or real constraints? Uncertainty Is it important to the decision

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Pitfall: Frame Blindness Are there other perspectives that aren’t being considered? Are any perceived constraints imaginary? Are perceived uncertainties relevant? Are we biased by earlier actions, successes, or failures? Are we making any false assumptions?

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service 4) Basis of a Problem Statement “The Caribbean LCC Science Plan Development Team wants to do X to achieve Y over time Z and in place W considering B,” X – decision context Y – fundamental/strategic objectives Framing: Z – spatial scale W – temporal scale B – constraints

strategic objectives (CLCC) fundamental objectives (partners) strategic decision context (CLCC) fundamental decision context (partners)