Forecasting Sales: A Step Towards Better Inventory Management Sewell Infiniti Jordan Whitteberry.

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Presentation transcript:

Forecasting Sales: A Step Towards Better Inventory Management Sewell Infiniti Jordan Whitteberry

Contacts Rick Cowart Dr. Barr Tim Jordan Whitteberry

Problem and Circumstances Seasonal by months Daily holding cost Lead time Jordan Whitteberry

Purpose Find seasonality of historical sales data Find leading indicators that they can track going forward Jordan Whitteberry

Questions and Decision Are there any local indicators that would track to our sales and help, in a leading manner, indicate the future of our sales? How does that affect ordering of inventory? Which indicators should be used? What focus should the indicators have? How many should be used? What should be done about the missing data for May of 2007? Jordan Whitteberry

General Approach Generate numbers for May Smoothie Find historical data for indicators MLR Jordan Whitteberry

Smoothie PeriodActualTrendSeasonalCyclicalForecastError Jordan Whitteberry

MLR Must use data that is at least three months ahead to compare Searching for a combination of r 2 s that add up to be above 0.5 LIBOR BCI CPI Unemployment Jordan Whitteberry

Taking Unemployment Into Account Jordan Whitteberry

Taking Dallas BCI Into Account Jordan Whitteberry

Variables Period Seasonality Index Cyclical Index Unemployment Rate 3 months prior BCI 6 months prior Jordan Whitteberry

Equations ERROR = * BUSI_CYC ERROR = * UNEMP Trend = * Period Jordan Whitteberry

Final Mathematical Model F = ( * Period) * Seasonality * Cyclical * UNEMP * BUSI_CYC Jordan Whitteberry

Model’s Logic Final Forecast * Period Seasonality * Cyclical * UNEMP * BUSI_CYC Jordan Whitteberry

Issues Unemployment Business Cycle Index Jordan Whitteberry

Interpretation Jordan Whitteberry

Conclusion Unemployment and BCI relate Limited outcome Try personal income and outlays, real estate purchases Try to stay locally focused Jordan Whitteberry