Briefing to COSCAP-SA South Asia Steering Committee Kyle L. Olsen Aviation Safety Consultant – FAA January 2010 – Bangkok, Thailand Briefing to COSCAP-SA South Asia Steering Committee Kyle L. Olsen Aviation Safety Consultant – FAA January 2010 – Bangkok, Thailand Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

* Representing P&W and RR ** Observer AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA / EASA TCC NATCA** NTSB** IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA**

HUMAN FACTORS IN OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE Carry-on Baggage Child Restraint Passenger Interference CABIN SAFETY IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS GENERAL AVIATION Loss of Control Weather Survivability Aeronautical Decisionmaking Controlled Flight Into Terrain Approach and Landing COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight Into Terrain Loss of Control Weather Uncontained Engine Failures Runway Incursion Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursions Safer Skies Turbulence

Safety enhancement development Master safety plan Enhancement effectiveness Future areas of study Data analyses CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

JSAT Process Charter Development Establish Team Select Data Set Review Data Identify Intervention Strategies Assign Standard Problem Statements Record Characteristics/ Indicators Develop Event Sequence Evaluate Intervention Effectiveness Prioritize Interventions Technical Review & Report Results Identify Problems (what/why) Global Review of Characteristics/ Indicators Evaluate Problem Importance

Effectiveness that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented (), Accident Risk Reduction = General Methodology for Calculating the Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Intervention 

Spreadsheet Example – Historical Airplane Accidents & Proposed Safety Enhancements

Score Combined Score Combined SOPs Example Scatter Chart Dollars In Millions 2007 Implementation & Resources

CAST Safety Plan 52 Completed Safety Enhancements  Safety Culture  Maintenance Procedures  Flight Crew Training  Air Traffic Controller Training  Uncontained Engine Failures  Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)  Standard Operating Procedures  Precision Approaches  Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems  Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

CAST Safety Plan (cont.) 20 Committed Safety Enhancements  Policies and Procedures  Aircraft Design  Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)  Runway Safety  Precision Approaches  Icing (additional turboprop projects)  Midair  Maintenance  Cargo safety culture, policies and procedures

12 72 Safety Enhancements 52 Complete – 72% 20 Underway – 28% 2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimate 74 % 72% 22% 6% Safety Enhancements

13 ECAST # December CAST SAFETY PLAN – 72 SE; 51 Complete; 21 Underway R R R COMPLETEON TRACKIN QUESTIONLATE JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level 120 0

14 SE-184 TAWS: Minimum Vectoring Altitude Re-evaluation (ATO) The purpose of this Safety enhancement is to reduce or eliminate the number of TAWS alerts by adjusting MVAs where needed. To help determine which MVAs need to be adjusted, an analytical capability will be developed that can identify, by geographical area, the minimum MVA. Sector design and airspace limitations will also be considered in the reevaluation as appropriate. OP1 Develop an analytical capability to facilitate the study of MVAs 8/31/2010 8/31/2011 ASA 8/6/2009 COMPLETED OP2 Accomplish a study of MVAs at prioritized sites OP3 Implement the MVA changes identified by the MVA evaluation ATO DIP CAST approved 8/6/2009.

15 SE-185 TAWS: TAWS and RNAV Visual or other procedures (AFS-400) The purpose of this enhancement is to reduce terrain alerts and to provide better separation from terrain by providing RNAV Visual or other procedures that mitigate known TAWS and terrain issues. OP1 Develop criteria and tools to evaluate procedures 02/28/ /28/201102/28/2010 ATO 8/31/2010 OP2 Prioritize locations and investigate potential for mitigation OP3 Develop RNAV Visual procedures where appropriate OP4 Develop plan for other mitigation procedures AFS-470 JIMDATATO DIP CAST approved 8/6/2009.

COSCAP- South Asia 45 CAST Safety Enhancements have been accepted and are being implemented. (19SCM-DP2-Att-3) 45 CAST Safety Enhancements have been accepted and are being implemented. (19SCM-DP2-Att-3) 8 Advisory Bulletins issued 8 Advisory Bulletins issued 17 Advisory Circulars issued 17 Advisory Circulars issued Guidance material Guidance material Training Training Web site: Web site:

Dollars/Flt. Cycle Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 65% Risk reduction Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST 2007 levels Cost Savings

ICAO Global Aviation Safety Plan – Roadmap

Global Aviation Safety Plan Proactive approach to aviation safety 12 Focus Areas established – 4 Focused on States (government) – 1 Joint regional responsibilities – 7 Focused on industry (operators) The Focus Areas are high level – Accident risk reduction not defined or identified

Global Aviation Safety Plan Global Safety Initiative 1 (GSI-1) – Inconsistent Implementation of International Standards Global Safety Initiative 2 (GSI-2) – Inconsistent Regulatory Oversight Global Safety Initiative 3 (GSI-3) – Impediments to Reporting of Errors and Incidents Global Safety Initiative 4 (GSI-4) – Ineffective Incident and Accident Investigations

Global Aviation Safety Plan The strategic action plan, ‘Roadmap’ defines for each initiative: – Focus Areas. – Objective for each Focus Area. – Best Practices for each Focus Area. – Metrics for each Best Practices.

GASR Best Practice example GSI - 3 Table 3a –Best PracticesMetricsImplementation BP 3a-1 – The State has a legislative framework that protects safety data. The State legislation must include provisions which protect privacy, prevent self incrimination and properly apportion criminal liability for actions. Without these basic features, full disclosure of safety related information will be extremely difficult. a. ICAO Annex 13 Attachment E b. USOAP AIG □ Complete □ Somewhat □ Little/None □ Not Applicable Analysis:

GASR Best Practice example GSI - 4 Table 4a –Best PracticesMetricsImplementation BP 4a-3 – States have access to trained accident investigators. a. States have access to a set of trained accident investigators, either internal investigators or from a regional or international/global source. b. As applicable, procedures have been established for delegation of accident investigations to other States or regional bodies. ICAO Doc 9756 Part I USOAP AIG 6.033; AIG ; AIG □ Complete □ Somewhat □ Little/None □ Not Applicable Analysis:

COSCAP Asian Regional Aviation Safety Team - June 2009 Safety Sub-Team – November 2009 Reviewed Best Practice, GSI-1 to -5 – Actions proposed – (19SCM-DP2-Att-2) Additional Actions related to GSI-3 & -4: – AIG / Reporting sub-team meet Nov 2009 – Develop model AIG rules – Develop model manuals – Continued analysis of GSI-3 and GSI-4 – (19SCM-DP2-Att-5)

Summary

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007 Accidents per million departures United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.1 Europe 0.7 China 0.3 Middle East 2.3 Africa 10.0 Asia 2.1 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) C.I.S. 1 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. World 1.1

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007 Accidents per million departures United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.1 Europe 0.7 China 0.3 Middle East 2.3 Africa 10.0 Asia 2.1 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) C.I.S. 1 CAST 72 Ses 52 complete 20 in work 74% reduction PAAST CFIT and ALAR ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction ASET COSCAP CIS COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 45 SEs in work 60% reduction 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. World 1.1 COSCAP Gulf COSCAP BAG SADC

Summary  History shows focused action and has led to accident risk reductions.  Joint industry and government teams working together can further enhance the safety of our very safe aviation system.  Full implementation will require a coordinated effort between industry and government.

Safer Skies: A Three Stage Process Influence Safety Enhancements - Worldwide Data Analysis Set Safety Priorities Achieve consensus on priorities Integrate into existing work and distribute Implement Safety Enhancements - U.S. Agree on problems and interventions

Thank you