NKS 2006 WOLFRAMSCIENCE CONFERENCE A SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT LIFE CYCLE METHODOLOGY FOR AGENT BASED MODEL DEVELOPMENT ROD SIPE – NEW SCIENCE PARTNERS June 16, 2006

Introduction Rod Sipe –Career Corporate IT –20 Years At Ernst & Young –Liaison to BiosGroup New Science Partners –Dedicated to the Application of CAS to Business –Application Concepts –Project Management –Methodologies

Applications In The Energy Industry PlanningMarketingProductionDistribution Predictive Modeling Gas/Elec. Market Convergence Commodity Trading Work Over Economics Alternative Path Models Schedule Optimization Refinery Location Commodity Transport Cost Well Production And Maintenance Trucking And Pipeline Operations Decision Support Drilling Portfolio Hedging, Financial Instruments Spark SpreadInterrupt Recovery

Applications In The Energy Industry Examples –Pipeline Schedule Optimization –Well Work Over Support Equipment Forecasting –Drilling Portfolio Optimization –Oil Product Delivery Truck Routing –Economic Optimization of Sales/Transportation Options

Model Types, Description, Value and Users Model Type DescriptionValueUser Proof of Concept Proves FeasibilityFundingCore Development Team Baseline Model Establishes the Development Environment Closure on Basic Model Performance CDT, Subject Matter Experts Refined Model Complete Enough to Begin Getting Business Answers Business Insight Through Iteration and Observation CDT, SME Expert InterpretationOperated by Experts Who Interpret the Results Answer Specific Situational Questions SME Decision SupportAnswers Pre-Specified, Recurring Questions Operational Decision Support Super Users Integrated ProductionModel Plays a Role in Regularly Scheduled Business Activities Optimization of Production Process Line Personnel

Concepts of CAS In Business High Probability Scenarios –Multiple Factors –Frequent Iteration –Random Disturbance –Short Cycle Times –Many Possible Solutions Practical Expectations –Know Your Potential Business Value –Optimization of What? –Actionable Results What Do You Know? –Business Process Models –Entities and Attributes What Are The Key Factors How Do They Behave

Concepts of CAS In Business What Is Knowable –Butterfly Effect –Answers Vs. Tendencies Data Access Architecture –Global View –Business Processes –Technical Fragmentation Research And Development, Not Systems Development –A New Understanding –Iteration –The Right To Not Reach The Objective The Breakthrough Result –Counter-Intuitive Solutions

OBSERVATIONS State of the Science: -Stus Cambrian Explosion Model -Limited Modeling Vocabulary Attitudes: -Assumptions -Expectations -Precedent -Status Quo Business Value: -Counter Intuitive -Value Proposition -Lack of Self Knowledge -Lack of Data Access Methodology: -R&D vs. Systems Development -Systems Development Life Cycle Methodology Meets The Scientific Method

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