With the financial support of the European Commission Study ‘Impact on employment in the EU-25 of CO2 emission reduction strategies by 2030’ Construction-housing sector Conference Jobs in a low carbon Europe 20&21 February 2007, Brussels,

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (1) Reference scenario : BAU (Business as Usual) Application of the 2 existing European Directives :  EPBD Directive (2002/91/EC) : field of application is limited to new & existing buildings of more than 1000 m2 (22% of the heat consumption of the European building stock).  Directive on the final uses of energy and energy services (Dec 2005). It requires that Member States realise energy savings of 1% per year over a period  This BAU scenario leads to a reduction of 34 millions tons CO2 / year by 2012, or a reduction of 8% compared with 1990

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (2) II) EURIMA Alternative Scenario  Supposes a revision of the EPBD Directive extending its field of application to all dwellings in the EU.  This scenario leads to a reduction of 70 million tons of CO2 a year in the residential sector, or -16%.

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (3) III. “Factor 4” alternative scenario :  reduction of 75% in CO2 emissions in the residential sector in the long term (2030 or 2050).  Decreasing the thermal consumption by 3/4 going from 200 Kwh/m2 on the average 2005 to 50 Kwh/m2.  Increasing the investments in thermal renovation works to go from 34 euros/m2 to 204 euros/m2 (in constant 2006 euros), with technology existing in 2006.

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (4)  The P&M at the national & European levels corresponding to the alternative scenarios:  Regulatory P&Ms  P&Ms in the form of incentives  P&Ms to promote R&D activities in the building industry and the building supply & materials industries  P&Ms for the development of training streams for new skills & new occupations of the players in the “sustainable construction” branch.

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  The effect on employment of the various scenarios (1) I. BAU Scenario :  EU15 : Invest a further 10 billion euros per year in the residential sector (or 1,1 % of the turn-over of the sector).  From 160 to 500 kiloeuros/year/FTE job  Creation of to additional FTE jobs.  In the 10 new member States : Invest an amount of 1,6 billion/year in the energy efficiency of the residential sector  Assuming euros/year/FTE job  Creation of an average of new FTE jobs per year

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  The effect on employment of the various scenarios (2) II. EURIMA Alternative Scenario  EU 15 : The investments required amount to 25 billions euros per year (or 2,8% of the 2004 turnover of the sector), 2,5 times greater than in the BAU scenario.  Assumption : a range of 160 to 500 kiloeuros/year/FTE job  Creation of to additional FTE jobs.  10 new member States : Investments required amount to 4,7 billion euros per year (10,5% of the turnover)  Assumption : 35 kiloeuros/year/FTE job  Creation of FTE new jobs

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  The effect on employment of the various scenarios (3) III. “FACTOR 4” alternative Scenario  For a sample of 16 EU countries (13 billions m2, or 3/4 of building stock EU25) : The investments required amount to billions euros overall;  137 billion euros/year if this program is spread between 2006 & 2030 (14 times greater than BAU Scenario),  73 billion euros/year if this program between 2006 &  Hypothesis : 53 kiloeuros/year/FTE job  Accelerated implementation : Creation of 2,6 millions new FTE jobs per year.  Implementation over the period : Creation of 1,4 millions new FTE jobs per year

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  The quality of new jobs  Intensity of the work factor : job intensity of investment in energy efficiency in the residential sector is higher than in the other sectors and jobs can not be delocalised.  The direct jobs created : equipments & materials manufacturing, their installation & maintenance by large & small companies in the construction sector, activities of management, administration & control of energy-efficiency investment programmes, service activities to optimise energy savings : advice, energy audit, marketing, R&D.  A maximum of jobs (50% to 90%) created in the first two categories, i.e manual activities.  The indirect jobs created :17 jobs for 100 new direct jobs

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  The other social issues of the improvement of energy efficiency in the building stock  The contribution of energy savings to the reduction of energy poverty & social (re)insertion  Training programmes in sufficient quantity & quality must involve all the players in the enlarged sustainable-building branch  Building professionals and those in the thermal material & equipment industries are generally averse to change, innovation & continuing education  Training provisions in the construction sector in EU are generally narrow in scope & poorly financed

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  The issues of the workers’ training  The public sector must play a key leadership role in implementing demonstration training programmes.  The demands on all initial & ongoing training measures are twofold :  To initiate & train people for occupations in environmental quality in 3 indispensable areas : prior diagnostic techniques, knowledge of all renewable energies & their specific conditions of use and installation;  Reorient or revise the contents in vocational training to emphasise certain contents, for which the demand will be on the increase : insulation & ventilation, heating grids, interior equipment.

Conference « Jobs in a low carbon Europe », 20 – 21 February 2007, Brussels With the financial support of the European Commission  P&M required in the training area  Revise the content of initial professional training courses in the construction sector  A new priority for continuing education programmes  Expand access to continuing education  Training for project management occupations  The issues around the emerging new profession of energy auditor  The issues around the creation of a basic and continuing training scheme for the new emerging job of project management assistant.

With the financial support of the European Commission  Thank you for your attention!