Electricity in the Philippines: Concentration, not Competition by Maitet Diokno-Pascual Presented at the ACF-FES Conference on “ENERGY SECURITY: Reshaping Policy Options for the Asian Region and the Philippines,” January 31, 2012, Subic Bay, Zambales, Philippines

PH Electricity Sector vis-à-vis Asia Production (in billion kWh) Consumption (kWh per capita) Source: Asian Development Bank

PH Electricity Rates vis-à-vis Asia Source: JETRO, March 2006, cited in

View of Southeast Asia Night Sky In 1992 …… and in 2009 (17 years later) Not much progress for the Philippines. It’s classified as dark night light for a country with a large population density. Source: ADB

Electricity not for All Households without access to electricity, 2002 and 2008 Percent of Families Number of Families (‘000) All Families n.a.2,908 Lowest 30% n.a.1,962 Highest 70% n.a.948 Source: National Statistics Office, Annual Poverty Indicators Survey, 2002 and 2008

My Points Exactly Philippine electricity sector too small to subject to costly reforms Especially when access to electricity is not enjoyed by all, especially the poor and/or those in the rural areas Rather than bring the electricity sector forward in terms of more affordable and more reliable electricity, the EPIRA is making concentration the main driving force in the sector

Concentration of Demand Luzon (Meralco franchise area) rest of Luzon, Visayas & Mindanao Source: Philippine Electricity Market Corporation (PEMC)

Luzon Market Concentration Source: Philippine Electricity Market Corporation

Concentration of Cross-Ownership Big Three Players – Lopez: distribution (LV), generation (LVM) – Aboitiz: distribution (VM), generation (LVM) – San Miguel Group: generation (L), transmission (LVM) Emerging Players – Manny Pangilinan: distribution (Meralco) – Henry Sy Jr: transmission Suspected Silent Player: Mike Arroyo L – Luzon; V – Visayas; M – Mindanao

Concentration of Generation, Luzon LopezAboitizSan MiguelNPC Privatized NPC/PNOC plants 2621, IPPs 1,596 IPPA contracted capacity 7002,545 TOTAL, in MW (10,931 in 2010) 1,8581,9753,2001,863 % of total installed capacity in Luzon 16.99%18.07%29.28%17.06% Share in 2004 (total cap 12,162MW) 16.47%0.78%0.00%80.9% EPIRA prescribed limit within a grid 30% Sources: UP National Engineering Center, “Philippine Electric Power Industry Market and Policy Assessment,” May 2011; Department of Energy, Power Statistics 2004

Implications for RE Development RE development in the Philippines is following the same track as conventional electricity under the EPIRA framework This is unfortunate because RE development could be an opportunity to push for the development of – Sustainable energy utilities – Devolved, decentralized utilities – Greater community and consumer participation In short, democratization of the electricity sector

Maraming salamat po!