1 Current Issues And Problems Encountered For Projections In The United States And Canada Presented by Ms. Rebecca Lee Tooly USEPA Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards Emissions Inventory and Analysis Group Marc Deslauriers Environment Canada Pollution Data Division Science and Technology Branch TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Thessaloniki, Greece, October 30-31, 2006

2 How The Emission Projections Are Developed Projected Emissions = Current Emissions * Emission Growth Adjustments * Emission Control Adjustments  Emission growth adjustments account for parameters such as population, gross domestic products, technology efficiency improvements, energy consumption, land use, motor vehicle kilometers traveled, etc.  Emission control adjustments account for technological innovations, control technologies, substitution of inputs to production (e.g., fuel switching), equipment turnover, emission controls implemented to satisfy regulations, voluntary programs and other initiatives expected to reduce air emissions, etc.

3 How The Emission Projections Are Developed Different datasets are also used in the estimation of the future emissions, which include: Outputs from macro-economic models, energy supply and demand models National statistics/forecasts for fuel consumption by fuel type and energy sector National, state, and provincial trends for different industries Industry specific market planning model that addresses capital turnover and economically-motivated fuel switching (eg. power generation) Emission estimation models for on-road and non-road vehicles (account for equipment turnover, fuel efficiency, fuel switching) Data compiled from continuous emissions monitoring (CEMs)

4  Changes in economic activity (typically growth)  Changes in the mix of production activities within and between economic sectors  Changes in vintages of capital equipment  Changes in population, energy use, land use, or motor vehicle miles traveled  Technological innovation may alter: Production processes for emission sources, Control technologies available, Substitution of inputs to production (e.g., fuel switching) –Emission controls implemented to satisfy CAA regulations, and voluntary programs and other initiatives expected to reduce air emissions Influences on future year emissions USEPA

5 Data Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, US Census Bureau, and US Department of Energy. USEPA Problems With Past Projection Approaches

6 USEPA 1 Sources: National Emissions Inventory and Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Ozone and PM NAAQS, Comparison of 1997 PM NAAQS RIA Forecasts and NEI Actual Emissions Non-EGU Stationary Sources Only 1 Problems With Past Projection Approaches

7 Current growth projection may not capture well:  Equipment replacement  Newly installed emission control equipment  Local and voluntary reduction measures  Implementation of codes of practice Problems With Past Projection Approaches USEPA

8 Acid Rain Program Clean Air Nonroad Diesel NOX SIP Call CAIR Regional Haze Rule/BART National NOX and SO2 Emissions Trends With Control Programs USEPA Future Year Trends

9 EGUs Historical and Projected Nationwide SO2 and NOx Emissions (million tons) Future Year Trends USEPA

10 Problems With Past Projection Approaches  Forecast of continuing emission increases is inconsistent with trend in activity variables used to relate impact on emissions.  Application of growth in the general economy and consideration of nationally mandated emission controls overlooks important factors that influence emission trends.

11 Improving the Approach  Focus on sectors with large contributions to precursors of ozone, PM, regional haze, and high risk toxics.  Research trends in technological innovation, capital turnover, fuel switching, and other activities that may have a significant impact on emissions.  Evaluate current available forecasting models capable of estimating local, regional, and national economic trends.  Examine the effect of removing emission declines attributable to national rules.  Develop models that better reflect historical and anticipated future trends for key stationary non-EGU sectors. USEPA

12 Improving The Timeliness  The emission projections are developed by Environment Canada (inventory developers, economists)  A review process is used to finalize the emission projections  Reviewers include Industry and policy experts within Environment Canada Industry sector/industry association representatives Emission inventory compilers in the provincial ministries of the environment

13  The review process is considered very valuable in the development of representative projections  Long delays in have been experienced in the review of the projections, delaying the publication of the final emission projections and their integration in the development of emission reduction policies  A new process is now being implemented in Canada for the review of the emission projections Restriction of the review process to a 3 month period Requiring adequate documentation (socio-economic parameters, assumptions, models, etc.) from Environment Canada and from the reviewers requesting adjustments to the original projections Improving The Timeliness