Charting for Real People Michael Kahn, CMT November 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

Charting for Real People Michael Kahn, CMT November 2011

Agenda The basics The basics Get the feel for the market Get the feel for the market Does it agree with the fundamentals? Does it agree with the fundamentals? Or at least not disagree? Or at least not disagree? Intangibles Intangibles

Who am I? Chartered Market Technician (CMT) not a Certified Massage Therapist not a Certified Massage Therapist trained and certified in market analysis trained and certified in market analysis Columnist – Barron's Online Newsletter Editor – Quick Takes Pro Former charting software designer – TradeCenter II …and beaten up enough by the markets

What do I do? Help investors assess risk and reward. no crystal ball no tea leaves no chicken entrails

Possible Goals 1. Sanity Check Just how good is the STOCK of a COMPANY with good fundamentals? Just how good is the STOCK of a COMPANY with good fundamentals? 2. Determine Aggressiveness Buy a lot? Or a little? Or none? Or Sell it? Buy a lot? Or a little? Or none? Or Sell it? Next – the basic concepts of what we analyze

Price Rules! Price - The stuff you put in the bank Price - The stuff you put in the bank In price, there is knowledge. Alan Shaw, CMT, Chief Technical Analyst. Smith Barney, retired Ralph Acampora, CMT, Chief Technical Analyst, Prudential Securities, retired

Volume is next Volume – How much money is moving Volume – How much money is moving In volume, there is truth. Dennis Jarrett, Jarrett Research

Momentum Momentum – How fast it got there Momentum – How fast it got there

Structure (Patterns) Structure – Trends and Patterns Structure – Trends and Patterns

Sentiment (Fear and Greed) Sentiment Sentiment I feel good! Whatever Hes gonna eat us!

We got game! Price Price Volume Volume Momentum Momentum Structure Structure Sentiment Sentiment

Looks like a cheaper place to buy How many times have you thought, My stock is on sale, lets buy!

The trend said it all

What does the market have to say?

The trend said it all

Quiz – do you see anything now?

Jargon alert! Squiggly line in next chart

Indicators said when it was time to return

Indicators tip you off to changes

Indicators said when it was time – or not

Jargon alert! Weird terms in next chart

Indicators said when it was time – or not ONeil Follow-Through Day

Indicators said when it was time – or not ONeil Follow-Through Day

Does something look wrong here?

Does something look right here?

Its Good to Side Step One of hedge fund manager John Paulsons top Q2 buys.

Its Good to Know When to Get Back In Redemption for a former bear.

Sanity Check Is the trend long in the tooth? Is the trend long in the tooth?

Sanity Check Is the trend long in the tooth? Is the trend long in the tooth? Are you the last to be invited to the party? Are you the last to be invited to the party?

Sanity Check Is the trend long in the tooth? Is the trend long in the tooth? Are you the last to be invited to the party? Are you the last to be invited to the party? Is your broker calling you with a new investment in the super bull market in *XXX that should last for years? Is your broker calling you with a new investment in the super bull market in *XXX that should last for years? * how about rare earth minerals in 2011

Sanity Check Is the trend long in the tooth? Is the trend long in the tooth? Are you the last to be invited to the party? Are you the last to be invited to the party? Is your broker calling you with a new investment in the super bull market that should last for years? Is your broker calling you with a new investment in the super bull market that should last for years? Are they ridiculing the bearish commentators (such as yours truly in April)? Are they ridiculing the bearish commentators (such as yours truly in April)? Or for early 2009, were doom and gloom forever? Or for early 2009, were doom and gloom forever?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the neighborhood tavern has CNBC on the television and not ESPN? Question - What does it mean when the neighborhood tavern has CNBC on the television and not ESPN?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the neighborhood tavern has CNBC on the television and not ESPN? Question - What does it mean when the neighborhood tavern has CNBC on the television and not ESPN? Answer - the market is not at a bottom Answer - the market is not at a bottom

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the guys on the football team are talking about how much money they are making trading? Question - What does it mean when the guys on the football team are talking about how much money they are making trading?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the guys on the football team are talking about how much money they are making trading? Question - What does it mean when the guys on the football team are talking about how much money they are making trading? Answer - the market is not at a bottom Answer - the market is not at a bottom

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when your doubles tennis game is talking more about trading and less about the tuna on rye at the coffee shop? Question - What does it mean when your doubles tennis game is talking more about trading and less about the tuna on rye at the coffee shop?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when your doubles tennis game is talking more about trading and less about the tuna on rye at the coffee shop? Question - What does it mean when your doubles tennis game is talking more about trading and less about the tuna on rye at the coffee shop? Answer - the market is not at a bottom Answer - the market is not at a bottom

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the banks are offering new interest only mortgages? Question - What does it mean when the banks are offering new interest only mortgages?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when the banks are offering new interest only mortgages? Question - What does it mean when the banks are offering new interest only mortgages? Answer – the real estate market is not at a bottom……(sound familiar?) Answer – the real estate market is not at a bottom……(sound familiar?)

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when there are whole aisles in the supermarket dedicated to the Atkins diet? Question - What does it mean when there are whole aisles in the supermarket dedicated to the Atkins diet?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when there are whole aisles in the supermarket dedicated to the Atkins diet? Question - What does it mean when there are whole aisles in the supermarket dedicated to the Atkins diet? Answer – time to buy bread and cereal stocks Answer – time to buy bread and cereal stocks

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when mutual fund and brokerage ads in Barrons are scarce? Question - What does it mean when mutual fund and brokerage ads in Barrons are scarce?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when mutual fund and brokerage ads in Barrons are scarce? Question - What does it mean when mutual fund and brokerage ads in Barrons are scarce? Answer – the market is not at a top. Answer – the market is not at a top.

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when Merrill Lynch closes their commodities trading desk? Question - What does it mean when Merrill Lynch closes their commodities trading desk?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when Merrill Lynch closes their commodities trading desk? Question - What does it mean when Merrill Lynch closes their commodities trading desk? Answer – the commodities market is not at a top Answer – the commodities market is not at a top

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when everyone is talking about the Great Depression and Financial Armageddon? Question - What does it mean when everyone is talking about the Great Depression and Financial Armageddon?

Quiz Time Question - What does it mean when everyone is talking about the Great Depression and Financial Armageddon? Question - What does it mean when everyone is talking about the Great Depression and Financial Armageddon? Answer – Its March 2009! Answer – Its March 2009! The AAII survey showed 70.27% bears on March 5. Unprecedented. The AAII survey showed 70.27% bears on March 5. Unprecedented.

Up is good, down is bad.

Trailing P/E now 50

Just for Kicks

What do you see?

How about this?

or this?

There was no need to lose it all.

real trading!

Up is good, Down is Bad

The real reason we do this: To make the buy, sell or hold decision. Not to predict the future

Getting the Feel Today real trading!

Getting the Feel Today

Quick Takes Prowww.QuickTakesPro.com Getting Technicalwww.Barrons.com Month Aheadwww.MarketWatch.com Books: Beginners Guide to Charting Financial Markets Technical Analysis: Plain and Simple – 3 nd edition Real World Technical Analysis

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