1 Pollution Transport from Other Air Basins San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District September 20, 2007

2 Northern Domain (CCOS & CRPAQS) Ozone Attainment Modeling is based on domain-wide reductions How could strategies in other air basins impact/help Valley attainment?

3 Transport from Recent Wildfires Day Fire – Fall 2006 Zaca Fire, Moonlight Fire, Lick Fire – Summer 2007 Biscuit Fire and McNally Fire – Summer 2002

4 Day Fire Day Fire September 18, 2006

5 Zaca Fire Zaca Fire August 13, 2007

6 Zaca Fire Zaca Fire August 14, 2007

7 Moonlight and Lick Fires Moonlight & Lick Fire September 05, 2007

8 Moonlight and Lick Fires Moonlight & Lick Fire September 06, 2007

9 Butler 2 Fire Biscuit and McNally Fires July 29, 2002

10 Wildfire Impacts on Air Quality Particulate matter (soot & ash) Precursors (NOx & VOC) form ozone Plume can also block sunlight and reduce surface ozone Many fires impact air quality in the Valley every year What attainment challenges result from wildfires?

11 Does Wildfire Smoke Resemble Urban Plume? Since wildfire emissions can travel from other districts, can anthropogenic emissions? What meteorological conditions are required to transport from these directions? Do we observe worse pollution on these types of days?

12 What We Know About Transport

13 Transport Couples Air travels more routes than identified by ARB Are there air quality impacts from unidentified regions?

14 CCOS Modeling can be used to evaluate transport from Bay Area and Sacramento As the ozone forms…

15 …Moves into the Valley…

16 …And into the Mountain Counties. This episode also tracks a major wildfire to the southeast.

17 What We Have Learned From Previous Studies Methods - tracers, modeling, windflow & timing ARB triennial review last done 2001 –Ozone 1-hour windflow and timing only 1990 SJVAQS Tracers & Modeling –Tracer study: Bay transport to Mountain Counties, later attributed to SJV –Transport evaluated & reported in Policy Findings & SJV 1-hour ozone attainment SIP 2000 CCOS –Transport working group – no final products –Analyzed for 8-hour compliance by domainwide reductions for SIP, no transport analysis completed

18 What Has Been Done to Mitigate Transport

19 Transport Mitigation State law to reduce ozone transport between basins: requires ARB to identify basin transport couples and set action requirements District BARCT regulations to reduce transport emissions are the most stringent in the state Lawsuits filed by District for failure to provide relief from pollutant transport received from Bay Area:

20 New Issues and Remaining Questions Regarding Transport

21 Northern Domain Northern Domain Southern Domain Modeling Transport between domains was not considered How do precursors and ozone move between the separate domains? How could this impact air quality?

22 Questions Are historical 1-hour ozone transport evaluations appropriate for 8-hour ozone? Is there a relationship between “clean” days in upwind areas and “dirty” days in downwind areas? How much ozone above the surface is carryover and how much is transport? How far can pollutants travel and how long can they persist?

23 Questions, continued What types of transport events occur in the Valley? How much impact do other districts have on the Valley during these events? How often do these events occur? –Understanding the type and frequency of events can help us prioritize control strategies

24 Recommended Next Steps

25 General Questions How much impact do other regions have on Valley air quality? Can the Valley meet the federal 8-hour ozone standard faster with reductions in other districts? What measures could be implemented by other districts to achieve attainment ahead of schedule?

26 Action Plan Development Identify federal, state, and local resources for evaluating air pollutant transport District analysis of existing data for 8-hour events and air pollutant transport couples –Internal efforts, infrastructure and staffing –External contracting Review of upwind district BARCT measures ARB triennial review –Include non-peak 8-hour ozone exceedances –Better methods & more clarity in findings Future air quality study: CEC/NOAA 2010

27 Recommendations 1.Develop an action plan to: –Better quantify the impact of air pollution transport from all neighboring air basins –Determine if reductions from other districts would enable the District to attain the federal 8-hour ozone standard earlier –Identify all feasible control measures for significant sources in neighboring districts that transport air to the District Submit action plan no later than first quarter of 2008

28 Recommendations 2.Pursue all available legislative and legal remedies to ensure that air basins that transport air pollution into the Valley are subject to equivalent requirements as the District