Dr. Joni L. Swanson Assistant Superintendent for Curriculum and Instruction Geneseo CUSD #228 Geneseo, IL

Prior StudiesCurrent Research ✄ Convenience samples: local or state-wide data ✄ Inconsistent statistical controls ✄ Case studies, limited generalizability ☝ National data set ☝ Applied inferential statistics and control variables ☝ Use of variables from transcript studies

Theoretical Basis Vincent Tinto – 1975, 1993 Theory of Longitudinal Departure VanGennep’s Rites of Passage Robert Merton – 1957 Anticipatory Socialization Theory Educational Anticipations

Theoretical Basis V. Tinto ( 1975, 1993, 1997) – Theory of Individual Departure from Institutions of Higher Education

Four Research Questions Persistence via Credits and Continual Enrollment Time to a Bachelor’s Degree Highest Degree Attainment Effects of Control Variables on Outcomes Original Causal Model based on theory Total Effects and Direct Effects

NELS Original Sample Independent Variable- TCREDD Control Variables Demographics High School Descriptors College Descriptors Dependent Variables Persistence Time to BA Degree Highest Degree Attainment Restricted Data NELS-R PETS (Post-secondary Education Transcript Study) PETS Supplement June 2004 Supplement

Causal Model

Logistic Regression via SPSS Unstandardized Parameter Estimates Standard Errors and DEFT (AM Software) Delta-p statistics ExpB (log odds) Model Probabilities Statistical significance at p<.05,.01 &.001

Research Results

DE students 11% more likely to persist to the 2 nd year than non-DE students (p<.01) DE students entering PSE directly after high school 17% more likely to persist to the 2 nd year (p<.001) DE students earning 20 + credits in the 1 st year PSE 28% more likely to persist to the 2 nd year (p<.001) DE participation did not significantly impact students earning 50+ credits by the end of the 2 nd year

Dual Enrollment participation alone decreased likelihood of BA in 4.56 years by 16% (p<.05) when controlling for college variables Earning 20 credits improved likelihood of BA in 4.56 years by 38% (p<.001) Continual enrollment in PSE improved likelihood of BA in 4.56 years by 41% (p<.001)

Certificate or Associates of Arts Degree ➔ With demographic variables, DE increased likelihood of AA by 14% (p>.05)

Bachelor’s Degree ➔ DE reduced likelihood of BA by 10% (p>.05) ➔ Students who entered PSE immediately after HS increased 26% to 28% ( p<.001) ➔ Students who earned 20 credits in the 1 st year of PSE increased by 20% (p>.001) ➔ Students who continually enrolled through the 2 nd year increased by 23% (p>.001)

Degree Attainment Graduate Study or Degree DE alone, no statistically significant results Higher percentage of DE participating students completed graduate hours/degrees than non- participants DE students who continue in PSE increased likelihood of grad degree by 34% (p>.001)

Anticipatory Socialization (Merton, 1957) Social and Academic Integration (Tinto, 1975, 1993, 1997) Anticipation of a BA Degree 12% greater likelihood for students who did not anticipate a degree (p<.01)

Statistically negative results for male and Hispanic students as compared to females and White students 1 st generation students less likely to earn 50+ credits in 2 years of PSE (-23%, p<. 001) Limitation of study = age of data & changing demographics in US

Academic Momentum – immediate entry to PSE, acquiring 20 credits by end of 1 st year, continuing in PSE to end of 2 nd year

“Nest Egg” Effect – credits are hard to give up

DE participation lays the groundwork for persistence Dual Enrollment participation alone decreases the likelihood of BA attainment by 10% DE students who continue in PSE to the 2 nd year have greater likelihood of degree attainment and of graduating in less than 4.56 years

Sociological Impact – participation in DE classes, especially for students without BA aspirations, improves likelihood of BA degree Integration both socially and academically to college and anticipation of college experience and habits Psychological boost to college success

ELS (Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002) P-16 Initiatives Student Information Systems NACEP Surveys

Phone: Website for Executive Summary: 8.asp

This research was supported in part by a grant from the John Templeton Foundation to the Institute for Research and Policy on Acceleration at the Belin- Blank Center for Gifted Education at the University of Iowa.