NOTE: To print these slides in black on white, choose grayscale under Options in print preview.

MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL TRENDS MISSISSIPPI TRENDS  EMPLOYMENT  INDUSTRIES  STATE BUDGET

National Economy in 2010  Recent profits, equipment spending strong  Private sector jobs being added  Inflation not a problem; oil prices moderate  Exports growing Stimulus spending slowing Consumer, business spending tentative Employment growth slow Housing not yet on upswing Toxic assets remain on financial books

Mississippi Economy in 2010  Housing, financial bubbles less severe  Job loss slowing, retail sales improving  Tax revenues stabilizing  Major projects boost spending  Some of $2.8 billion stimulus to MS remains Uncertainties, unemployment impacting consumers Construction, manufacturing hit hard Tax revenues low relative to state budget Long-term challenges on hold

MS Employment: Comparing Periods of Contraction 5 Employment is indexed to month of Peak Employment Level Months From Peak Employment: Zero is the Peak

Mississippi versus U.S. Employment Index Quarterly Data Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.

Mississippi Employment Growth As of July,Year-to-Date Versus 2009 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

Mississippi Employment Growth July 2009 versus July 2010 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

Unemployment Rates, Mississippi Urban Areas Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Gulf Coast Employment July 2010 versus August 2005 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

MS Regains 2000 Employment Level In 2015 Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.

Employment By Sector 2010, MS vs. U.S. (Percent) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Construction Employment, Coast and Rest of Mississippi,

MS And US Housing Market % Change 2007:Q2 – 2009:Q2

Mississippi Housing Market % Change 2009:Q1 – 2010:Q1

Value of Housing Building Permits Mississippi, Aug July 2010

Foreclosures and Past Due Payments Mississippi Housing Market Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

Major New Projects Port at Gulfport $570 million Schulz Extruded Products $300 million Enterprise for Innovative Geospatial Solutions $279 million Geospatial Solutions $279 million Twin Creeks Technologies $175 million Toyota Auto Plant $1.3 billion LNG Project $1.1 billion Severstal Expansion $500 million Keesler Air Force Project $950 million Source: Mississippi Authority Development

Mississippi Retail Sales August 2008 to July 2010 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.

Transfers to General Fund August 2008 to August 2010 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.

Growth in General Fund Transfers FY2009 versus FY2010

Growth in State General Fund Transfers ( August 2009 versus August 2010) SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue.

FY2011 GROSS STATE PRODUCT $93.1 billion MISSISSIPPI BUDGET $19.1 billion Federal Funds $9.3 b. Federal Funds $9.3 b. State-Source Spec. Funds $5.4 b. State-Source Spec. Funds $5.4 b. State General Fund $4.4 b. State General Fund $4.4 b. Source : MS Dept of Finance & Admin.

Economic Forecast 2009 to 2010 (Percent Change)

Economic Forecast 2010 to 2011 (Percent Change)

Projected and Past Employment Growth MS and US Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.

Projected and Past Output Growth MS and US Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.

Employment Forecast by Sector (average annual rate of change ) Source: MS Center for Policy Research and Planning.

WILL THIS CRISIS BE AN OPPORTUNITY LOST?  Financial Sector: Transparency & Accountability  Restructuring: Health, Energy  Social Safety Net  State Budget: Performance-Based Budgeting, Policymaking Capacity, Budgeting, Policymaking Capacity, Tax Reform Tax Reform

EDUCATION AND THE SKILL GAP 29% of persons in U.S. from 25 to 64 years old have a bachelor’s degree or higher Only 20% of persons from 25 to 64 years old in Mississippi have a bachelor’s degree or higher SOURCE: U.S. Census and U.S. Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2007.

SOURCE: PUMS Dataset, 2000 Census. Fighting Poverty: Education and More Required

IN SUMMARY IN SUMMARY Starting climb from bottom  Jobs, state revenues stabilizing  US, world growth will be a positive  Major projects on-line Long-term challenges remain Long-term challenges remain  Ability to innovate, compete  Education, research  State budget, health, energy, social issues

MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK and MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINESS at Join MS Economy Listserve: Join MS Economy Listserve: contact contact University Research Center University Research Center