Security Situation Sahel ساحل

Introduction Before the current French military intervention, insurgent control over northern Mali had boosted jihadist groups across the Sahel region Jihadist alliances have fractured, suggesting a limited life cycle for jihadist violence in the southern Sahel Underlying religious and cultural dynamics also suggest a limited life cycle for jihadist activity

The Sahel Region

Groups Present and Objectives Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) Overthrow of North African ‘apostate’ governments Mouvement pour l’Unicité du Jihad en Afrique de l’Ouest (MUJAO) Direct off-shoot of AQIM Mouvement National pour la Libération de l’Azawad (MNLA) Secession of the north of Mali, known as Azawad Ansar al-Din Establishment of a regional Islamist state in northern Mali and impose Sharia law Al-Mourabitoune Enforce Sharia law from ‘The Nile to the Atlantic Ocean’

Groups Present and Objectives Boko Haram ‘Jama’atul Ahlu Sunna Lidda’Awati wal Jihad’ or ‘People Committed to the Prophet’s Teachings for Propagation and Jihad’ or ‘Western Education is a Sin’ Boko Haram seeks a restoration of a caliphate, modeled after the Sokoto kingdom, over Nigeria. Al-Shabab ‘Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen’ (HSM) or Youth Movement

Risks – Assets - Projects Immediate effect of French intervention: Attacks have receded in Mali, Niger and Nigeria AQIM and other jihadist groups’ capability to conduct cross-border attacks on Mali’s immediate neighbours have been largely reduced French assets and personnel are still at risk of attack and kidnap across the region

Risks – Personnel -Travellers Foreign nationals are still at risk of kidnap in northern Burkina Faso, western Niger and south western Mali Kidnap risks are highest to individuals in transit Most will be for ransom, but French and European citizens would be at risk of execution

Update January 2014 Intelligence community is still on alert Observing new redeployment of armed groups in mountainous north-east Mali (Adrar – Ifoghas) and Sahara Tibesti. Possible violent reaction of Jihadists. High profile targets New group assembling these combatants (Al Mourabitoune) Combatants transiting through the south of Libya, west of Sudan or through Mauritania Having seen 30% of their forces destroyed radical combatants are looking for revenge France now has 2500 troops deployed in Mali Areva on RED alert

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