State of College Admission 2009 Report David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and Research NACAC Melissa E. Clinedinst Assistant Director of Research NACAC

Components of Report Counseling Trends Survey Admission Trends Survey Effects of the Economy Survey External Data –US Department of Education IPEDS Data –US Census Bureau –College Board Annual Survey –Other Education Organizations

Chapter 1: The Flow of Students Number of HS Grads Peaked at 3.33 Million for 2008–09 –Wide Variations By State and Region –Racial/Ethnic Composition Changing Total College Enrollment Will Increase At Least Through 2017 Racial/Ethnic Imbalance in College Enrollment

Projected Percentage Change in Public High School Graduates, by State: 2004–05 to 2017–18 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to (2008). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Figure 23).

Enrollment in Postsecondary Education In Comparison to Share of College-Aged Population WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/ Pacific Islander American Indian/ Alaska Native Percent of pop. age 18– Percent of racial/ethnic group enrolled in postsecondary education Total Control Public Private Type Four-year or higher Two-year SOURCES: Digest of Education Statistics. (2008). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 227).

Cumulative Percent Change in US Public High School Graduates Relative to 2004–05 by Race/Ethnicity SOURCE: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2008). Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992–2022.

Chapter 2. Applications and Selectivity Application Volume Continues to Increase Share of Enrollment By Selectivity Recent Trends in Selectivity and Yield

Percentage of Colleges Reporting Change from the Previous Year in Number of Applications for Fall Admission: 1996 to 2008 Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008

Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications: 1990 to 2008 SOURCES: Pryor, J.H., Hurtado, S., Saenz, V.B., Santos, J.L., and Korn, W.S. (2007). The American Freshman: Forty Year Trends, 1966–2006. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Pryor, J.H. et al. (2008). The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA.

Applications and Enrollment By Selectivity Average Applications Per Institution National Share of Applications National Share of Full Time, First- Year Students Enrolled Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 6, to 70% 3, to 85% 2, More than 85% 1, SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. ( and ). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Selectivity and Yield Rates at Four-Year Postsecondary Institutions, 2001 – 2007 SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2001–02 through 2007–08). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Trends in Admission Data, Percent Change Number of Applications24.2 Number of Acceptances20.4 Number of Enrolled Students9.8 Average Acceptance Rate-3.9% Average Yield Rate-8.9% SOURCE: Chart compiled by the National Association for College Admission Counseling as a supplement to the 2009 State of College Admission Report using data from the US Department of Education's Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center.

Chapter 3. Admission Strategies Early Decision Application Volume Tapers Off – Only 49 Percent of Institutions Reported Increases Early Action Application Growth Stalls, But Still High – 65 Percent of Colleges Report Increases Wait List Admission Changes Slim – 30 Percent, 13 Percent at Most Selective Colleges

Early DecisionEarly ActionWait List Total 17.2%20.1%35.0 Control Public Private Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants to 70% to 85% More than 85% Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students to 45% to 60% More than 60% Percentage of Colleges Using Early Decision, Early Action, and Wait Lists: Fall 2008 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008

Mean Mean percentage of all applications received at ED colleges through Early Decision6.4% Mean percentage of Early Decision applications accepted (ED selectivity rate)67.4 Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Decision53.9 Mean percentage of admitted ED students who enrolled (ED yield rate)87.9 Mean overall yield rate at ED colleges34.3 Key Statistics for Early Decision Colleges: Fall 2008 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends, 2008.

SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008 Mean Mean percentage of all applications received at EA colleges through Early Action33.8% Mean percentage of Early Action applications accepted (EA selectivity rate)68.9 Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Action63.2 Mean percentage of admitted EA students who enrolled (EA yield rate)34.2 Mean overall yield rate at EA colleges32.0 Key Statistics for Early Action Colleges: Fall 2008

Mean Percentage of Students Admitted off the Wait List: Fall 2008 Mean Percent Admitted Total 30.3 Control Public 33.7 Private 29.1 Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants to 70% to 85% 49.1 More than 85% 50.2 Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students to 45% to 60% 48.5 More than 60% 39.7 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.

Chapter 4. Factors in the Admission Decision Top Factors Unchanged –Grades in College Prep Courses –Strength of Curriculum –Test Scores –Overall GPA New Questions –Essay Verification –Review Social Networking Profiles

Factor Considerable importance Moderate importance Limited importanceNo importance Grades in college prep courses 74.9% 15.7% 5.0% 4.4% Strength of curriculum Admission test scores (SAT, ACT) Grades in all courses Essay or writing sample Teacher recommendation Student’s demonstrated interest Counselor recommendation Class rank Interview Subject test scores (AP, IB) Extracurricular activities SAT II scores Portfolio State graduation exam scores Work Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2008 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008

Factors by Institutional Characteristics Public vs. Private –Private: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, work, extracurricular activities, subject test scores (AP, IB), the portfolio, and demonstrated interest –Public: class rank Enrollment Size –Smaller: interview, essay, counselor and teacher recommendations, demonstrated interest, portfolio, state graduation exams Selectivity –More Selective: grades in college prep courses, strength of curriculum, essay, counselor and teacher recommendations, class rank, extracurricular activities, work, portfolios, subject test scores, and SAT II scores

Considerable importance Moderate importance Limited importanceNo importance Race/ethnicity First-generation status Gender Alumni relations High school attended State or county of residence Ability to pay Percentage of Colleges Attributing Importance to the Influence of Student Characteristics on the Evaluation of Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2008 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008

21% of Colleges Revoked Admission Offers in 2008 Percentage of Colleges that Revoked Admission Offers for Various Reasons (Among Those That Revoked Any Offers) SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008

Only 5 percent of colleges reported that they take steps to verify applicant essays About 8 percent of colleges reported that they review the social networking profiles of prospective students in some cases Essay Verification and Review of Social Networking Profiles

Chapter 5. College Counseling In High Schools Student-to-Counselor Ratios Time Spent on College Counseling

Student-to-Counselor Ratios by School Characteristics Students Per CounselorStudents Per College Counselor Total Control Public Private Private non-parochial Private parochial Enrollment Fewer than to ,000 to 1, ,500 to 1, ,000 or more FRPL 0 to 25% to 50% to 75% to 100% SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2008

Percentage of Time on College Counseling Private Schools Public Schools SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2008

Chapter 6. The Admission Office Application-to-Admission Officer Ratios Cost to Recruit

Application-to-Admission Officer Ratios Applications per admission officer Total 459 Control Public 825 Private 333 Enrollment Fewer than 3, ,000 to 9, ,000 or more 1091 Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants to 70% to 85% 380 More than 85% 316 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.

Cost-to-Recruit ApplicantAdmittedEnrolled Total $506.47$865.13$2, Control Public Private , , Enrollment Fewer than 3, , , ,000 to 9, , ,000 or more Selectivity Accept fewer than 50% of applicants , , to 70% , to 85% , More than 85% , , Yield Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students , to 45% , to 60% , More than 60% , , NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.

Chapter 7. Effects of the Economy on the Admission Cycle Changes in Students’ Enrollment Plans Increasing Student-to-Counselor Ratios Increased Demand for Financial Aid Strategies Used by Colleges to Meet Enrollment Goals

Apps. Per StudentCC vs. 4-YearPublic vs. PrivateDelay CollegeForgo Dream School Inc.SameDec.Inc.SameDec.Inc.SameDec.Inc.SameDec.Inc.SameDec. Total39.2%46.3%14.5%36.9%59.1%4.0%59.6%35.4%5.0%14.5%83.8%1.7%70.7%27.5%1.7% Control Public Private Percentage of Schools Reporting Change in Students’ Behavior During the Admission Process for Fall , as compared to Fall SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part I, May 2009

Percent Reporting ChangeAverage Change Student Counselor Ratios SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.

Percentage of Admission Offices Reporting Change Admission Statistics– Financial Aid SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.

Percent Reporting Change Percent Reporting Increases by Type Admission Statistics– Enrollment SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.

Admission Office Strategies To Meet Enrollment Goals SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.

We Welcome Your Input Melissa Clinedinst David Hawkins