1. Linda DeAngelo CIRP Assistant Director for Research
Enhancing Campus Retention Studies: Predicting 4- and 6-Year Degree Attainment with Institutional and Freshman Survey Data
Linda DeAngelo
CIRP Assistant Director for Research
Introduce self and presentation –
Find out familiarity with CIRP and HERI
CIRP is the largest and longest study of the higher education system in the United States. Over 2,000 institutions, 14 million students, and 350,000 faculty have participated in a CIRP Survey
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

2. Overview of Presentation
Review findings from recent study on retention rates at the national level
Discuss how institutional data and data from a freshman survey such as CIRP’s Freshman Survey can be used to predict retention at the institutional level
Demonstrate how an institution can use the formulas created at HERI to compute expected retention in order to gauge the effectiveness of their retention programs
RF – This study was conducted by the founding director of HERI – Dr. Alexander Astin and one of his graduate students at that time, Dr. Leticia Oseguera.
DH 2 = We all know this has become increasingly important since the federal government started requiring institutions to make public their degree completion rates.
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

3. The National Study of Retention
Data: 1994 CIRP Freshman Survey and degree completion data provided on 4- and 6-year completers provided by registrars offices
262 baccalaureate-granting institutions
56,818 students – full-time, first-time freshman in 1994
Weighted data to represent national norms
WD – Results were statistically adjusted to reflect the entire population of freshmen entering baccalaureate granting institutions in 1994.
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

4. Purpose of Study
Determine degree completion rates by gender, race/ethnicity, and institutional type
Identify entering student characteristics that predict degree completion
Develop formulas that individual institutions can use to compute “expected” retention rates
Examine results for 4- and 6-year completers and for those still enrolled after 6 years
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

5. Major Finding from Study
Nationally, time to degree has increased
Results: 36% graduated within four years in this study. In 1989 a decade earlier, 40% graduated within four years, and in the late 60s, 47% graduated within four years
Six-year graduation rate in this study is 59% and this increases to 62% if you count those still enrolled after 6 years as retained
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

6. Effects of Institutional Type on Retention
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Type
4 Years
6 Years
6+ Years
Public Universities
28%
58%
62%
Private Universities
67%
80%
Public 4-Year Colleges
24%
47%
52%
Nonsec 4-Year Colleges
68%
Catholic 4-Year Colleges
46%
60%
Private institutions of all types have higher retention rates than do public colleges and universities – this is true regardless of the retention measures used.
The highest 4-year completion rate of 67% is found at private universities and the lowest is 25% at public colleges. The public university completion rate of 28% is also substantially lower than the 4-year completion rate for students at all types of private institutions.
The fact that the public/private difference in retention declines somewhat when six year retention is used suggests that students at publics are taking longer to complete their degrees.
Data suggests that attending public institutions not only lowers the chances that a student will complete a degree, but prolongs time to degree
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

7. Effects of Gender On Retention
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Gender
Men
Women
Total
4 Years
33%
40%
36%
6 Years
55%
60%
58%
6+ Years
59%
62%
61%
Greatest gender gap occurs at 4 years (7%); reduces to 3% when you take into account students still enrolled after 6 years
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

8. Effects of Race/Ethnicity on Retention
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by Race/Ethnicity
4 Years
6 Years
6+ Years
White
38%
58%
62%
African American
23%
46%
49%
American Indian
21%
42%
Asian American
39%
65%
69%
Mexican American
53%
Highest 4-year completion rate is for Asian American students, followed by Caucasian students. The lowest 4-year completion rate are for Mexican American and American Indian students.
Mexican American students make up some of the ground in degree completion at 6 years as compared to Caucasian students, but differences in percentage of bachelor’s degrees stay basically the same for African American and American Indian students at 6 years.
Data suggests that the same factors that contribute to low college attendance rates and low retention rates among URM students may also be prolonging time to degree
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

9. Effects of Race/Ethnicity and Institutional Type on Retention
6-Year Degree Attainment by Race/Ethnicity and Type
Public
University
4-Year
Private
Nonsec
Catholic
White
59%
49%
80%
68%
64%
African American
45%
41%
73%
50%
48%
American Indian
44%
37%
72%
56%
32%
Asian American
65%
51%
87%
76%
58%
Mexican American
40%
38%
62%
30%
Going back to the findings I reported about degree completion by institutional type, results presented on this slide show that higher retention rates at private universities hold true for all racial/ethnic groups.
With the exception of Mexican American students and American Indian students, the lowest 6 year retention rates are found at public colleges. For Mexican American and American Indian students the degree completion rates after 6 years are at Catholic colleges.
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

10. How “Good” Is Your Retention Rate?
Did you know? – Two-thirds of the variation among institutions in their degree completion rates is attributable to differences in their entering classes rather than to differences in the effectiveness of their undergraduate retention programs
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

11. How “Good” Is Your Retention Rate?
Our data suggests that it is unwise, and possibly misleading, to compare the raw degree completion rates of different institutions without first taking into account the level of academic preparation of each institution’s students when they first enroll
This means that the best way to evaluate any institutions actual degree completion rate is to compute and “expected” degree completion rate based on the characteristics of the students when they enroll.
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

12. Changes in Retention When Student Characteristics at Entry are Used
Example – Although the 4-year degree attainment rates at private universities are more than 40% higher than those at public colleges, this difference diminishes to approximately 15% when expected degree attainment rates are taken into account
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

13. Retention by High School Grades
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by HS Grades
HS Grades
4 Years
6 Years
6+ Years
A, A+
58%
78%
79% A-
47%
68%
70% B+
35%
59%
62% B
25%
48%
52% B-
19%
39%
44% C+
15%
33%
37%
As you can see from this chart, the chances of completing college in four or six years varies widely according to the student’s level of academic preparation, as measured by their high school grades.
For students with A or A+ grades the four year degree attainment rate is 58%, whereas for students entering college with a C+ average the four year degree attainment rate is a mere 15%. At 6 years 78% of students who began college with A or A+ grades in high school have completed their degrees and the figure for the C+ students is just 33%, still well under the figure for the most prepared student at 4 years.
Data clearly indicated that HS grades are a major determinant of college completion at 4, 6, and 6+ years
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

14. Retention by SAT Comp Score
Four, Six, and Six-Plus Year Degree Attainment by SAT Score
SAT Score
4 Years
6 Years
6+ Years
1300+
62%
77%
78%
55%
73%
75%
48%
68%
70%
40%
63%
66%
30%
52%
56%
The figure looks much the same for SAT comp scores as it was for High School GPA. Students with higher scores on the SAT are much more likely to complete their degrees and much more likely to complete their degrees in four years.
At four years, those with SAT comp scores in the 900 range are less than half as likely to have completed their degree as those with scores of (Bring up next part of slide). At six years that figure has narrowed. And, across SAT comp scores our data indicate that the college completion gap is narrowing.
Data indicates that the college completion gap between test scores narrows as time to degree increases
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

15. Retention by HS GPA and SAT Comp
Four-Year Degree Attainment by HS GPA and SAT Comp
SAT Comp Scores
HS Grades
1300+
A, A+
42%
54%
60%
63%
69% A-
41%
46%
52%
61% B+
33%
39%
48%
51% B
23%
34%
28%
36% B-
18%
25%
29%
32%
15% C+
16%
20%
12%
cell too small
The largest gaps in degree attainment are observed when high school grades and SAT comp scores are combined.
69% of students with A averages and SATs have completed their degrees in four years. This compares to 15% for students with C+ grades and SATs in the 900 range.
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

16. Predicting Expected Retention: Institutional or CIRP Variables
Variables Used: Average HS GPA, SAT COMP, Gender, Race/Ethnicity
All are variables that the large majority of institutions already have available for analysis
These variables are also available on The Freshman Survey from CIRP at HERI
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

17. Multiple R by Various Retention Prediction Equations: Institutional or CIRP Variables
HS GPA
SAT COMP
Gender
Race/Ethnicity
.3084
.3486
.3559
.3601
Factors beyond High School GPA add slightly more than 5% to the variance accounted for in predicting retention
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

18. Demonstration of HERI Retention Calculator: Institutional or CIRP Variables
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

19. Predicting Expected Retention: If You Use CIRP Freshman Survey
Substantially improves prediction of degree completion over what was possible using only high school grades, test scores, gender, and race/ethnicity
Prediction now includes measures of SES, info about financial aid, activities as HS seniors, reasons for attending college, goals, likely college activities, major, and environmental factors
SI – Substantially more accurate estimates of expected retention can be obtained if many of the characteristics of students that are available in the CIRP freshman survey are used.
PN – Adding additional CIRP variables increases the accuracy of the prediction by 57% percent for 4-year completion and by 50% for six year completion.
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

20. Multiple R by Various Retention Prediction Equations: For Users of CIRP Freshman Survey
All Inputs
With SAT Scores
All Inputs Environments With SAT
All Inputs Without SAT Scores
All Inputs Environments Without SAT
.473
.515
.460
.506
When bottom comes up –
This means that the other CIRP variables contain virtually all of the relevant information contained in the SAT or ACT.
With all input factors, SAT Comp adds very little to the variance accounted for in predicting retention
Most of the variance is accounted for by the effects of entering students rather than differential institutional effects
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

21. Demonstration of HERI Retention Calculator: With All CIRP Available Variables
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

22. Conclusions
Even students who come to college well prepared academically are less likely to persist to degree today than in the past
Calls for accountability that require the reporting of “raw” rates of retention actually harm, rather than enhance, the incentive for institutions to admit and educate underprepared students
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

23. Conclusions, Continued
Institutions can be more accountable for their effectiveness when they take into account the characteristics of the students they enroll
Institutions who participate in the CIRP Freshman Survey can predict more precise measures of expected retention
Having more precise measures of expected retention enhances institutional, system, and state level policy and practice
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles

24. Question and Discussion Period
For more information visit HERI at
The report “Degree Attainment Rates at American Colleges and Universities” is available for purchase or order at the conference
My is:
Higher Education Research Institute
University of California at Los Angeles