Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts of Ethanol in Thailand Presented by: CEP-KMUTT research group

Analysis of Ethanol in Thailand Energy to produce 99.5% ethanol using cassava Environmental effects of ethanol as a fuel supplement

Ethanol Production Process Ethanol Factory Starch to Sugar Cassava Farm Milling Factory Fermentation Transportation Distillation Blending Refining

Locations of Cassava Milling and Ethanol Factories Average Transportation Energy Cost ~ 0.62 MJ / L 99.5% Ethanol Factory Cassava Milling

Energy Cost in MJ/L 99.5% Ethanol Process Azeotrope Membrane Molecular Sieve Cassava Farm 0.54 0.49 Milling 4.87 4.36 Ethanol Factory 18.53 16.26 15.71 starch to sugar 0.46 0.41 fermentation 1.11 0.99 distillation 15.81 14.17 refining 1.17 0.69 0.14 Transportation 1.45 1.30 Total 25.40 22.41 21.85

Chart of Energy Cost

Energy Balance Net energy loss of ~ 0.75 to 4.3 MJ/L (~ 3 to 20%)

Conclusion Energy Analysis This energy analysis is unique in that it is the first time the total energy cost of producing and blending 99.5% ethanol in Thailand has been calculated. Negative energy balance Other studies have calculated a net energy gain from the ethanol production process A 2002 study conducted by the US Department of Agriculture found a +5.9 MJ/L ethanol gain in energy

Discussion How do our results affect the benefits from “Greenhouse Neutrality”? Around 22 to 25 MJ of Fossil Fuel is used to produce 21.1 MJ of EtOH Advances in Technology and/or Technology Transfer from other countries Economies of Scale: Can ethanol become a closed system? Greenhouse Gas emissions trading

Gasohol Emissions vs. Gasoline Emissions Pollutant Change Effect Acetaldehyde +100% Increase O3 levels CO -16% Decrease O3 levels, decrease exposure to harmful toxin NOx -31% < X < +15 % Change in O3 levels VOC +17% Ethanol +160% CO2 -100% Slows down global warming PANs Unknown increase Eye irritant, harms plants Fuel Economy Very small decrease (-1%) Negligible

Stations Modeled Huay Kwang 11 km MET Department

Comparison of Measured Data and the Template Model

Comparison of Measured and Template Model

Comparing the Simulated Results with Measured Data The O3 patterns are similar Max O3 level of Template Model (~14 ppb) is ~25% lower than measured data (~18 ppb) NO2 patterns are similar NO concentrations differ greatly, but the overall patterns are similar

Description of Scenarios Modeled in OZIPP VOC NOx CO Notes Template ------- No ethanol Scenario 1 +17% -31% -16% PTT data Scenario 2 +15% Journal Data Scenario 3 -12% -15% -37% Projected (~ 5 years)

Comparison of Modeled O3 levels for 8/19/96 at Huay Kwang

Comparison between Template,Scenario 2, and Scenario 3

OZIPP Results for 8/19/96 +171% +49% +42%

OZIPP Results for 12/23/97 +127% +29% +17%

PANs

The Effect of Increased Acetaldehyde Emissions From our results, the additional acetaldehyde and ethanol emissions from gasohol increase the concentration of ground level ozone. Ozone levels still increase when VOC, NOx, and CO emissions are reduced below baseline levels, demonstrating acetaldehyde’s influence on ozone formation.

Conclusions From our data, the widespread use of gasohol in the BMR would most likely lead to an increase in ground level ozone; however, the exact increase is not known. It appears that lower ozone days will experience higher increases in ozone than high ozone days. However, significant increases in ozone concentrations are expected for all days.

Final Thoughts The potential benefits of producing and using fuel ethanol are obvious: -Economic stimulus for impoverished agricultural areas -Increased self-sufficiency -Decreased Greenhouse Gas Emissions -Competitive advantage over other countries

Final Thoughts Our energy analysis and OZIPP modeling was an objective attempt at producing a more holistic view of how fuel ethanol production and use might effect Thailand. A positive energy balance must be achieved for most potential benefits to be realized. Determining the net environmental effects are very complex and require a comprehensive analysis of both ethanol production and use.

Final Thoughts If Thailand should choose to use fuel ethanol, we strongly recommend that the government vigorously monitor energy cost, energy efficiency, and air quality so that problems are recognized and corrected in a timely manner.