Thinking: Problem Solving and Decision Making

Units of Thoughts Concept –A mental grouping based on shared similarity –Categorizing items in one’s environment Prototype –A typical best example incorporating the major features of a concept –The closer a new object is to our concept prototype the easier it is to categorize it Image –Mental representation of a sensory experience

Problem Solving A problem exists where there is a difference between where you are and where you would like to be Problem solving is the use of information to meet a specific goal Problem Solving Steps: –Understanding the problem –Making a plan (Con v. Divergent Thinking) –Carrying out the plan –Looking back

Problem Solving Strategies Trial and Error AlgorithmsHeuristics

Algorithm Examples Y = mx +b Figuring out a locker combination by trying every possible combination Not always efficient!

Heuristic Examples i before e ….

Problems Solving Problems

Mental Set A tendency to approach a problem in a particular way (often one that has been successful in the past) The set may or may not be helpful in solving a new problem –Ex: A child opens the door to a store by pulling on it. He later insists on pulling the door handle of any similar-looking door to open it, and is puzzled that some of them must be pushed instead.

Mental Set: Example What are the final three letters in the sequence? –O-T-T-F-?-?-? –J-F-M-A-?-?-? How could you arrange six matches to create 4 equilateral triangles?

Fixation A mental set that hinders the solution of a problem One needs to think beyond the mental set to solve the new problem –Thinking outside the box Dots and Candle problems

Functional Fixedness The inability to think of different uses for objects Your turn: You have 1,000 VHS tapes and boxes. Brainstorm ways in which you could use these objects.

Representativeness Heuristic A heuristic in which a situation is judged on the basis of its resemblance to a stereotypical model –May lead us to ignore other relevant information –Tversky and Kahnerman: Thomas is short, slim, and loves poetry. Is he more likely an Ivy League Classics professor or a truck driver?

Availability Heuristic A heuristic in which a decision is made based on information that is easily retrieved from memory –Information is often vivid, based on past experiences Frequency of an event’s occurrence is predicted by the ease with which the event is brought to mind –Can be correct or incorrect Tversky and Kahnerman The lottery! Grandma smoked for 50 years and was healthy, so cigarette smoking can’t be that bad!

Confirmation Bias The tendency to focus on information that supports one’s preconceptions (and ignore the evidence that would disprove them!) EX: A reporter writes an article on a controversial issue (gun control) and only interviews experts that support his/her opinion Peter Wason

Overconfidence The tendency to be more confident than correct when estimating the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgments I feel 98% certain that the population of Switzerland is more than ___ and less than ______. Only 66% of people were accurate! Why do we do this?

Is the Mississippi River longer or shorter than 300 miles? –How long is it? Is the population of Argentina more or less than 3 million? –What is the population of Argentina?

Is the Mississippi River shorter or longer than 3,000 miles? –How long is it? Is the population of Argentina more or less than 20 million? –What is the population of Argentina?

Framing The way an issue is worded or presented Can influence decisions and judgments Tversky and Kahnerman

Framing Examples Condoms have a 95% success rate in stopping HIV, the virus that causes AIDS –90% of college students who read only the first statement said condoms were effective Condoms have a 5% failure rate in stopping HIV, the virus that causes AIDS –Only 40% said they were effective

Examples (cont) Ground beef: 20% fat of 80% lean? Surgeon: 2% death rate or 98% success rate?

Belief Perseverance Clinging to one’s initial beliefs even after new information discredits the basis on which they were formed Once you have explained to yourself why candidate Y will be the best commander in chief, you tend to ignore evidence that would undermine this belief

Belief Perseverance Example Two groups of people with opposing views on capital punishment were shown “new” research findings (one supporting and one refuting the effect of capital punishment on crime) Each side was more impressed by the study that supported their side When shown mixed evidence, disagreement actually increases! How do you fix this? Ask someone to consider the other side