Mrs. Ramsey

Introductions Syllabus Calculators? Water Taste Test Hand out books! Section 5.1

How many of you think you can tell the difference between the school’s water and bottled water? Let’s do books in the meantime… Let’s test it!

There will be three cups of water in front of you and you will use the number that is already on your desk to record your answers. Two of these cups have water from the school and only one has bottled water. Remember the letter (found on the bottom of your cup) that you think has the bottled water.

If you were to guess prior to doing this experiment, what do you think the percentage is that people choose the bottled water correctly? How many people did get this right? Was our hypothesis correct? Is it good enough to say that we can accurately choose bottled water over tap water? What else could have affected our results?

A probability is a number between zero (never occurs) and one (always occurs) that describes the likelihood of an event. An event is a subset of the possible outcomes in a chance process. The compliment of an event is the opposite of the event. That is, the even does not happen. Ex: Let W be the event that we predicted which cup had the bottled water. P(W) = P C (W) =

The number of times an event happens is known as the frequency of that event. Our frequency was ____ The relative frequency is the value calculated by dividing the number of times an event occurs by the total number of times an experiment is carried out (written as a fraction, decimal, or %). Our relative frequency was ______

Imagine that you were to flip a coin 10 times and write down your results (use H for heads and T for tails)

Flip a penny 10 times and record your results. Label your first list “predictions” Label your second list “actual” The probability of an event can be thought of as its long-run relative frequency when the experiment is carried out many times.

Believers think that if you flip TTTTTT then the next flip of a coin is more likely to be H. It is true that in the long run heads will appear half the time. What is a myth is that future outcomes must make up for any imbalance. Coins and dice have no memories! After 10,000 flips the result of the first six flips doesn’t matter.

Fill out 2 Google forms on my website with your parents! Section 5.1 Homework: Pg. 293 (1-4, 7-12, 14-20, 23-27) There are videos of Mr. Suk teaching that are posted on my website! If you watch them you might have help with your homework… Section 5.2 homework: Pg. 309 (39-46, 49-56) Section 5.3 homework: Pg. 329 (63, 65, 67-78, 81, 83-88, , )