Heat & Power Cogeneration Potential in Estonia February 8 th, 2007 Prof. Andres Siirde Tallinn University of Tehcnology

Current Situation GOOD ENOUGH OR NOT?

Existing CHP’s in Estonia 2007 CHP generate electricity 1000 GWh/y 11 % of total generation 17 CHPs in operation +100 MW <10 MW MW

Majority of Estonian CHP’s use steam cycle therefore low power to heat ratio CHP’s produce 11 % of electricity Total number of CHP % of heat is produced in CHPs Heat to Power 1:3 Source: Tallinn Technical Univercity, Peeter Raesaar “Latest Development on RES policy, implementation and planning in Estonia”

More than half of the heat is produced from local fuels A B C A.56% of the heat is produced from local fuels; B.Overall efficiency of heat production is 82%, C.District heating network losses 15% 49% of the heat is produced in small-scale boilerhouse (less than 5 MW th ); There is on-going process to reconstruct boilerhouses for wood and other biofuels due to increase of oil and gas prices 49% of the heat is produced in small-scale boilerhouse (less than 5 MW th ); There is on-going process to reconstruct boilerhouses for wood and other biofuels due to increase of oil and gas prices D.Share of natural gas is 41%. 100% of the gas imported from Russia (Gazprom) D

Majority of investments of power plants have to be made by 2016 Source: Statistics Estonia B C A A.Over 90% of the electricity is produced from local fuels B.Existing power production efficiency is 34%; Major imporovement potentential with implementation of CHP’s C.Network losses losses 17% due to export, concentrated production, old network equipment; Potential positive impact from distributed generation Current electricity production is dominated by oil- shale power plants, 80% of existing capacity is out of operation by 2016 (LCPD); Opportunity to restructure whole generation structure towards more energy efficient system Current electricity production is dominated by oil- shale power plants, 80% of existing capacity is out of operation by 2016 (LCPD); Opportunity to restructure whole generation structure towards more energy efficient system

Potential of efficient heat & power co- generation in Estonia existing heat load availability of fuels potential techonogies EVOLUTION or REVOLUTRION? EVOLUTION or REVOLUTRION?

There is potential to double amount of co-gen power by 2015 in Estonia Potential for CHP capacity is GWh of heat load, mostly small-scale local boilerhouses; Potential electricity output from RES approx GWh; with natural gas GWh; Additional potential from local microCHP approx ??? GWh el Potential for CHP capacity is GWh of heat load, mostly small-scale local boilerhouses; Potential electricity output from RES approx GWh; with natural gas GWh; Additional potential from local microCHP approx ??? GWh el Source: Statistics Estonia Potential for CHPs GWh

Existing CHP’s in Estonia 2007 Power generation 1000 GWh in CHPs 11 % of total generation 17 CHPs in operation +100 MW <10 MW MW

Potential CHP’s in Estonia 2015 Potential for GWh in CHPs +20 % of total generation +30 CHPs in operation Installed capacity ____ MW +100 MW <10 MW MW

Choice of fuels depends on environmental, security of supply and economic priorities Natural Gas Availability StrengthWeakness Gas is available in all major towns 100% imported from Russia Possible to import 8-10 mln m 3 per day Wide range of available technologies Standard solutions and easy maintance High efficiency, good power to heat ratio Imported fuel with monopoly supplier Fossile fuel RES CO 2 neutral Local fuel Development and employment in rural areas Limited availability High price due to exports compared to regulated power prices CO 2 neutral Local fuel Development and employment in rural areas Peat Local fuel Large resources Competitive price Development and employment in rural areas Production seasonality High CO 2 content Environmentally sensitive 20% of Estonia is covered with peat Available resource in existing fields enough for 150 years Annual growth +1TWh

There are substantial potential of economic and environmental benefits from wider use of CHP’s Use of local RES and peat is limited by availability of resources (up to 2 TWh per year) Natural gas provides potentially higher power to heat ration than local fuels and has considerable environmental benefit but security of gas supply must be carefully considered before wider use; Use of local RES and peat is limited by availability of resources (up to 2 TWh per year) Natural gas provides potentially higher power to heat ration than local fuels and has considerable environmental benefit but security of gas supply must be carefully considered before wider use;

Functioning power market is key to CHP development Market opening Power Exchange Price regulation 35% of Estonian power market is opened 01/09; 100% - 01/13 Power market in Baltics is dominated by national, no functioning spot market Regulated Price Cap level is lower than full-cost of a new power plant Proper deregulation and development of functioning power market in the Baltics would give potential investors required confidence for investments with smaller need for state support schemes Current SituationImpact on Investment Independent power producers have very limited access to end-customers and not able to build customer portfolio No transparent reference price available; Not possible to sell excess or buy energy in independent and transparent market place Regulated price-cap does not support investments into new capacity, support scheme needed for all investments; Investments delayed or only done with help of state support schemes

Thank you for your attention! Prof. Andres Siirde

Appendices

Heating season lasts approximately 5000 h per year Source: Statistics Estonia Heating season lasts approximately 5000 h per year; Base-load CHP capacity is limited to bigger cities (hot-water) and heat intense industry;, Due to mild summers requirement for cooling capacity is minimal. Demand is slowly growing but unimportant on national level Heating season lasts approximately 5000 h per year; Base-load CHP capacity is limited to bigger cities (hot-water) and heat intense industry;, Due to mild summers requirement for cooling capacity is minimal. Demand is slowly growing but unimportant on national level

49% of the heat is produced in boilers less than 5 MW Source: ???

Source: ????

Scarcity of wood based fuels my delay development of RES CHP’s Source: Tallinn Technical Univercity, Estonian Univercity of Life Sciences