The new politics puts new demands on businesses seeking to have their voices heard

Page 2 With all these difficulties, what can a weak Government achieve and what does this mean for you? What can a weak Government achieve? What does this mean for business? Tax and spend The Government can tax and spend, but only once it has passed a Budget You will need more than good arguments to engage with the Budget – you will need to demonstrate leadership and build wide coalitions of support inside and outside Parliament Legislation and reform A weak Government will find it difficult to pass new laws on anything controversial You will need to understand what can be done within existing legislation, and what reforms can be passed without Parliamentary approval. Relationships with senior civil servants, regulators, the EU and devolved powers are crucial Exerting pressure Without legislation, the success or failure of policies could hinge on the ability of ministers to exert informal pressure You will need strong relationships and coalitions of support to help Government pull levers of control, as they can no longer do this alone Backbench activity Backbench activism will become more important as the ministerial ladder becomes less predictable and the PM cannot offer a reliable career path Working with groups of backbenchers on their own debates and bills will grow in importance, as will your ability to relate your priorities to MPs constituents’ priorities

Whatever your priorities, you will be competing with any array of strong and organised voices trying to set the agenda Page 3 Green taxes, corporate taxes and higher public spending Lower taxes and weaker EU involvement More powers for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and fewer cuts across the UK Communities against infrastructure with the support of local MPs

The more voices there are at the table, the harder it will be to pass controversial legislation. This puts a greater emphasis on policies where consensus can be achieved Page 4 Budget responsibility "triple lock": Mansion tax on properties valued at over £2m Raise minimum wage to more than £8ph by 2019 No rise in VAT, NI or basic and higher rates of income tax Reverse corporation tax cut but freeze business rates 200,00 new homes a year Extra £2.5bn for NHS Access to childcare from 8am-6pm for parents of primary school children Freeze energy bills until 2017 and give energy regulator new powers to cut bills this winter Devolution to city regions Commitment to Trident Ensuring value for money from HS2 Reform of rail management and franchising, including public ownership National infrastructure commission No referendum on EU membership Eliminate the deficit and be running a surplus by the end of the Parliament No increases in VAT, National Insurance contributions or Income Tax Extra £8bn above inflation for the NHS by 2020 Extend Right to Buy to housing association tenants in England 200,000 new homes over the Parliament Legislate to keep people working 30 hours on minimum wage out of tax 30 hours of free childcare per week for working parents of 3&4-year-olds Referendum on Britain’s EU membership Commitment to Trident Commitment to HS2 and planning for HS3 Devolution to city regions Consensus? Reduce the deficit Tax reductions or pay increases for those on low pay No rise in VAT or NI Devolution to city regions, although Labours prefer a one-size-fits all approach HS2 phase 1 Trident House building Extra cash for the NHS More spending on childcare

Overall, we will also see more high-profile decisions made away from the Cabinet table Page 5 With the PM constrained, political, civic and business stakeholders will also need to work with coalitions of local leaders to get things done New combined authorities could become the testing ground for innovation Business needs a louder voice in Brussels and with politicians losing control, Whitehall civil servants and regulators will also grow in power

It is Westbourne’s longstanding view that the old certainties are fading and power is leaking from the centre. Majority single-party Government’s have been the norm, but it is clear that they are not the future. Any public affairs professional needs to respond to the new environment, including weaker Government and stronger backbenchers. This is the new normal.

Conclusion Page 7 Westbourne believes you must build your own broad coalitions Government can no longer act without partners and supporters delivered by you Westbourne believes you must demonstrate leadership and take a view With a wide array of voices competing to be heard, you must be part of the big debates shaping our politics Engage with new centres of political power A successful communications strategy must include engagement with the new centres of political power – international, regional and local