Africa in the new oil geopolitics NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD Africa in the new oil geopolitics JP. Favennec Director - Centre for Economics and Management IFP School Institut français du pétrole 8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition Marrakech, April 26-30 2004

PETROLEUM WORLDWIDE IN 2002

WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 10 000 Mtoe 9 000 Electricity* 8 000 Gas 7 000 6 000 5 000 Oil 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 Coal 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 * Nuclear and hydroelectricity Source : BP Statistical Review

WORLD RESERVES (1.1.2003) (109 toe) Possibles 2800 (109 toe) (1) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 80 $/kg (2) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 130 $/kg (3) Present technology (Pressurised Water Reactor) (4) Recoverable (5) R/P: Proven Reserves/Production ratio In place R/P = 204 600 Proven R/P = 41 (5) Enhanced recovery 532 Yet to be discovered 100 Probable R/P = 61 Proven 100 Proven 120 R/P = 65 39,5 (2) 143 143 (4) 22,7 (1) 80 LIQUID NATURAL NON- COAL + URANIUM (3) HYDROCARBONS GAS CONVENTIONAL LIGNITE Source : BP Statistical Review, CEA, IFP / DSEP

THE PLACE OF AFRICA IN THE WORLD OIL RESERVES (Proven oil reserves as at 1st January 2003) CIS 7.5% TOTAL : 143 Gt Canada 0.7% USA 2.9% Europe 1.8% Mexico 1.2% North Africa 3.9% Middle East* 64.9% Venezuela 7.4% Indonesia 0,5% Oceania 3.2% West Africa 3.2% * includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen Source: BP Statistical Review

ESTIMATED PROVEN RESERVES AND PRODUCTION FOR MAJOR AFRICAN OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES 36 000 Libya 1,48 25 000 Nigeria 2,12 11 300 Algeria 1,86 5 400 Angola 0,92 3 700 Egypt 0,62 2 500 Gabon 0,30 1 500 Congo 0,26 1 100 Proven Reserves (Mb) Equatorial Guinea 0,18 Production (Mb/d) 900 Chad 0,18 563 Sudan 0,12 Février 2004 Source: BP Statistical Review, EIA, Oil & Gas Journal

CRUDE PRICE VARIATION 100 $ 2002 90 (1875) (1911) Dissolution $ current Rockefeller of Standard Oil 80 Period of control by (1979) Iranian 70 revolution (1990) 60 Rockefeller Irak/ (1928) Achnacarry Kuwait 50 agreement (1973) Yom war Kippur war 40 (1960) Foundation 30 of OPEC 20 10 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 1861-1944: USA average, 1945-1985: Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura, 1986-2002: Brent Spot Source : BP Stat. Review

OIL PRICES REFERENCES Production costs $ 3 - 15 / bbl Break even price for international oil companies $ 20 / bbl Price to meet producing countries budget requirement $ 20 - 25 / bbl

MAIN OIL FLOWS IN 2000 (Mt) 290 165 80 125 1120 90 135 165 80

EVOLUTION OF AFRICA’S SHARE IN WORLD CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION Thousands barrels per day 13690 b/d (12,2 %) 120000 100000 7803 b/d (10,5 %) Africa 80000 Asia Pacific 5047 b/d (9,0 %) Middle East 60000 Europe & Eurasia S. & Cent. America 40000 North America 20000 1975 2000 2025 Source: BP Statistical Review, Energy Information Administration

MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE USA IN 2003 (‘000 b/d) 113 USA Total imports = 9 646 From Africa = 1 466 Algeria Nigeria Gabon 838 Congo 131 23 Angola 361 Source: Energy Information Administration

MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2002 (‘000 b/d) Total imports = 9 652 From Africa = 1 806 325 75 745 Algeria Libya Egypt Nigeria Cameroon 375 Gabon Congo 122 164 Angola Source: European Commission

MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO ASIA IN 2002 (‘000 b/d) China(1) Total imports = 1 209 From Africa = 272 100 Sudan 96 Other Africa Nigeria 76 OECD Asia Pacific(2) Total imports = 6 738 From Africa = 331 Gabon Other Africa 162 10 Angola 93 66 (1) 2001 data (2) OECD Asia Pacific includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea Source: International Energy Agency, China OGP

SHARE OF HYDROCARBONS IN THE ECONOMY OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES - 2002* - % of revenus Country % of GDP % of exports ANGOLA CAMEROON CONGO GABON NIGERIA EQUAT. GUINEA 45 5 67 73 40 86 90 60 94 81 95 90 20 80 60 83 61 * Estimates Source : ,CRS, World Bank, IMF, CIA World Factbook 2002, EIA AF021 - April 2004

KEY PRODUCING ZONES Caspian Area Gulf of Mexico 30 Gb West Africa 3 Gb 27 Gb