IPv6 WTC 2000 May 10th, Birmingham

TAMING THE NET

Famous Last Words "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

“32 bits should be enough address space for Internet” -- Vint Cerf, 1977 Famous Last Words

IP on Everything v6

Percentage of Ownership Electricity (1873) Telephone (1876) Automobile (1886) Television (1926) Radio (1905) VCR (1952) Microwave (1953) PC (1975) Internet (1975) Years Since Introduction Industry Standards Drive Ubiquity

Users on the Internet - Mar 10, 2000 How Many behind Firewalls and NATs? CAN/US Europe - 48 Asia/Pac - 46 Latin Am - 10 Africa Total Mio Users

Will IP Scale and remain Robust ? 75% of traffic on Internet is WWW 3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999) 700 Million web pages (and dark info) Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data) 8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.) Traffic growth %/year reported 300 M M users by Dec 2002

Can the Internet run Quality & Security in one go? Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV Real-time quality of service support, VoIP Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, )

Internet-enabled Devices In need of IP Addresses, at least! Information appliances – M, M, M (IDC) WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)

Source: Metricom Inc., 1997 Non-Traditional Applications

Person Person Appliance Appliance Voice Voic Telemetry ITS Alarm Notifications Emerging Growing Maturing Voice Control Fax Computer TeIephony Integration Home Banking InfoCom Application Areas

Source: Cadence, 1998

Any Time, Any Where

WearComp

Wireless Internet e.g. Internet cell phones, cameras “always on” networking –increasing demand for IP address space “Bluetooth”, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite 3G cellular (2 Mb/s)

Today: you go through a circuit switch to get to a packet switch. Tomorrow: you’ll go through a packet switch to get to a circuit switch. Cerf’s Inversion

NASA InterPlaNet - Chaired by Vint Cerf Space: the final frontier Our 25 year mission: to go where no network has gone before!

End-to-end information flow across the solar system Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times Integrated communications and navigation services

The Interconnected World

“The New Telecom World …. Beyond Voice”

Telecom Datacom Mobility GSM Wireline telephony The strategic direction Mobile data WAN/LAN data Voice over IP 3G (UMTS) 2G Internet 1G mobile Internet 1G Internet 3G Internet

Mobile Internet: ‘ in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’ ,000 (Millions) Fixed Mobile Internet Mobile Internet The Rush to the Billion! 1 B

Wide Area Coverage Local Area Coverage Global IP Mobility Mobile Information Society Wireless, secure, high speed access Messaging internet always on Shared databases & applications Mobile telephony Seamless services IP Fast Internet & Intranet Mobile multimedia

Today Single-service networks Multi-Service Next Generation networks GSM Radio/TV Fixed Telephony LAN (Data) Services Transport, Switching & Access Networks Servers Clients IP Backbone Network Access Future Multi-service networks Communcationi Control Content Access

Cerf’s Prediction By 2010, 100% of all traffic will be packetized!.

Internet Scaling challenges Great IP Address Crunch QoS Security Authentication and usage tracking Accurate system information Maintain IS technical advantage

IP Address Haves & Have-Nots

Have-Nots

NAT)) IPv6 IPv4 (( NAT)) IPv6 IPv4 IPv6 Address Space Shortage Security Cost of System Management Lack of Capability needed for Next Generation Applications IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1! 1990 Y N? Y N N Y? IP Robustness & Scalability

The routing problem is getting out of controlled, despite CIDR!

Early conclusion + Wireless Growth  Internet 2000 is a baby! Internet Growth 100 IP Adds/person! + Always-On + Info Soft Appliances

Finally The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be and the more complicated the transition will be ! (compare to Y2K !) Yv4

IPv6 FORUM Vint CERF Honorary Chairman Outernet: InterPlaNet!

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