The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future for our Children: The Hard Choices Facing Us Rotary Club of Corby Annual Lecture 5th November 2009 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich

How much Energy is there in different fuels? Understanding Energy How much Energy is there in different fuels? MegaJoules Yogurts kWh Yogurt 85000 calories (85kcal) 0.365 1 0.1 1 cubic meter gas 39.6 106.8 10.8 1 litre petrol 32.9 90.1 9.1 1 litre diesel 35.7 97.8 9.9 1 litre LPG 25.0 68.6 7.0 1 litre heating oil 35.3 96.6 9.8

Increasing Occurrence of Drought 3 3

Increasing Occurrence of Drought Increasing Occurrence of Flood 4 4

Norwich City would be playing water polo! Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich If we don’t do anything about it now, what would happen in the future is Norwich could be under water due to the large sea level rises. To avoid working under water at UEA in a few hundreds of years, we have to quickly develop effective measures to reduce CO2 emission. One of such measures is to use carbon-free or clean fuels. Hydrogen is regarded as a clean energy carrier of the future, particularly to replace petrol for mobile application. (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich City would be playing water polo! 5 5

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه 2003 1979 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 6 6 6

Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security Import Gap

How is electricity generated

Electricity Generation in the UK Coal 37.7% Gas 35.5% Oil 1.3% Other 2.0% Renewable 4.7% Nuclear 18.9% Power Station Losses 8.5% 42% efficient in UK Emissions depends on efficiency, losses and fuel Coal ~ 1000 gms Oil ~ 900 gms Gas ~ 400 gms Nuclear ~ 20gms Each unit of electricity used causes the emission of 540 gms in UK but only 70gms in France.

Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 10 10

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 11 11

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich 13

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK.

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste. But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size

Our Choices: They are difficult Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles

The Behavioural Dimension Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 26

Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3779 kWh per year [14th/408] , in Eaton Rise District of Norwich ~ 3000 kWh West Norfolk, 6082 kWh [391st/408] per year

Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.

Horizontal Axis Mini Wind 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum 31 31 31

Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. 32 32 32

A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 未来的低碳之路 1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness 2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions Don’t need the English on this slide so Chinese is fine 4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting 3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy

What can we do? WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org What can you do in your school What can you do at home Where are the biggest savings in Energy and carbon emissions? Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK and will increasingly affect us all in next 10 years Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming Otherwise we may have to choose whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat our home. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org This presentation will be on WEB from tomorrow >follow Academic Resources Link “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” （直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。” Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子 （604-531BC）中国古代思想家、哲学家

Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 600 500 400 100 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] today Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received). Last Interglacial Last Ice Age 1800 Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. 36 36 36

Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Prediction: Natural only 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise (oC) Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise (oC) actual predicted Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise (oC) actual Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 37 37