1. 1 Global Warming: Energy Security: Hard Choices Ahead. How should we as individuals/communities respond Kings Lynn 18 th February 2009 Keith Tovey: Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007 CRed Carbon Reduction Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA

2. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community Background: the evidence of Climate Change 2 How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change

3. 3 3 Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

4. 4 Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

5. 5 Is Global Warming Man Made? Not according to Channel 4: “ The Great Global Warming Swindle”! Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years

6. 6 Last Ice Age Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO 2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO 2 has not been this high in more than half a million years. Last Interglacial Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received). 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) 6005004003002001000 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] 1800 today 6 Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record

7. 7 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 7

8. 8 Is Global Warming man made? Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted 8

9. 9 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Temperature Rise ( o C) actual predicted Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity Is Global Warming man made? 9

10. 10 (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise Norwich City would be playing water polo!

11. 11 1979 2003 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.htmlhttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years 20 ٪ تخفيض في 24 سنوات تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 11

12. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community 12 How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change

13. Comparison of Discoveries and Demand We need to consider alternatives now 13

14. 14 UK Gas Production and Demand Import Gap

15. 15 Per capita Carbon Emissions UK How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? China 15

16. 16 Carbon Emissions and Electricity 16

17. r 17 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 18

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (curently 35%) Available now (but is now running out) ~2p + but recent trends put figure much higher Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 19

20. 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

21. 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

22. 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW

23. 23 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

24. 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste.

25. 25 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

26. 26 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

27. 27 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO 2

28. 28 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

29. 29 Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018 New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018 Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size

30. 30 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present. Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

31. 31 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? -the North Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

32. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community 32 How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change

33. A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future 未来的低碳之路 1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness 3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy 4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting 2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions 33

34. 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 相当于每人排放 5 个热气球 4 million over Norfolk 400 万诺福克 In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person 在发展中国 家，这一水平低于 1 个热气球 Is this Fair? 这公平吗？ On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. 每一个英国人每年排放 9 吨 CO 2 “Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little.” ‘ 没有人犯的错误比他不做任何事更大，因为他认为他的行动 微不足道 Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

35. 35 Raising Awareness A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances 20 - 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year Filling up with petrol (~£45 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

36. 36 The Behavioural Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. Education/Awareness is important

37. 37 Electricity Consumption in UK Increase in household size ~ 12% The average delivered GB electricity consumption of 4392 kWh has an equivalent energy to fuel required to propel a medium family car 3500 miles

38. 38 Social Awareness of Impact on Climate Change

39. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community 39 How we can respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change

40. 40 Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Solar Pump Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

41. 41 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy

42. 42 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Solar Thermal Energy 2007 2008

43. 43 House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

44. 44 Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. A church not connected to grid e.g. Fishley, with services only once a week PV would be a sensible option. BUT English Heritage??????? Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3700 kWh per year

45. 45 Micro CHP Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled. Replace the normal boiler But there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat – electrical generation will be limited. Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar photovoltaic? In community schemes explore opportunity for multiple unit provision of hot water in summer, but only single unit in winter.

46. 46 Other Renewable Technologies Micro Wind Vertical Axis Mini Wind

47. 47 6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray Horizontal Axis Mini Wind In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average >>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum

48. 48 Throttle Valve Condenser Heat supplied to house Evaporator Heat extracted from outside Low Temperature Low Pressure High Temperature High Pressure Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump Compressor Any low grade source of heat may be used Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep Bore holes Lakes/Rivers are ideal Air can be used but is not as good Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.

49. 49 Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions The Heat Pump Images from RenEnergy Website

50. Background: the evidence of Climate Change Hard Choices facing us Raising Awareness Technical Opportunities Opportunities for the Church and Community How we as local communities respond to the twin issues of Energy Security and Climate Change 50

51. 51 Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

52. 52 Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Mini Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed Involve the local Community 52

53. 53 Involve the local Community The Broadsol Project Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

54. 54 Involve the local Church / Community Provide independent and objective advice Explain why many of the myths are wrong What happens when wind does not blow? It uses more energy to build a wind turbine than it ever generates Provide simple and understandable advice A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. Putting a lid on the saucepan save 90% of energy required. Boiling that unnecessary cup of water emits 25 cupfuls of CO 2 Turn of standby on TVs, DVDs. They use more energy while you are a sleep and each one could cost you £6 a year in energy bills.

55. 55 Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10% New Vehicles: A Hybrid Vehicle 55

56. 56 Historic Trends: Freight Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by: –223% since 1960 –20% since 1990 Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction? 56

57. 57 Social Issues: Lift Sharing Our congested roads are full of empty seats The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.com is based in Attleborough; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2 52 million km shared each year. Car travel (2006 statistics): 679 billion passenger kilometres 398 billion vehicle kilometres Average occupancy 1.71. Raising this to an average of 2 would save 9.9 Mtonnes CO 2 each year Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport. Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO 2 and reducing car use. 57

58. 58 Conclusions (1) Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Global Warming will not only have adverse effects on our brothers and sisters in the developing world, but within the next 10 years we could also be faced with energy shortages unless we act now.

59. 59 WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Conclusions (2) Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

60. 60

61. Act of Commitment As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of God’s creation, we admit our collective guilt in allowing species to become so swiftly extinct, in depleting finite energy and raw materials, and in polluting the earth’s soil, water and atmosphere. Let us be ready to change the way we think and live. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to do all we can to heal and restore the damage people have caused to God’s earth, and to develop sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves and to inspire others. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church communities planning a better way of living in their localities. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.

62. Act of Commitment Let each of us commit ourselves to play our part and take what action we can to cherish God’s creation. Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. We pledge to pray and work for an environmentally sustainable and socially just world, in the interest of all earth’s Inhabitants, both present and future generations, and for the well-being and flourishing of the whole earth. Amen