Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan June 5, 2007 Jeongim Park

Outline 1 2 3 4 Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP) Study Scope and Methods 3 Premature Deaths–Related Benefits from SAQMP 4 Summary and Future Improvements

Seoul Metropolitan Area

Seoul Metropolitan Area Gyeonggi 11.7 % 46.6 % 4 times 44.7 % 46.3 %

Air Pollution Trends in Seoul Tokyo New York

SAQMP’s PM10 Goal Statement

You will see the Yellow sea from Namsan, the center of Seoul! Special Law for Improving Air Quality in Seoul Metropolitan Area (2004) You will see the Yellow sea from Namsan, the center of Seoul!

SAQMP measures (partial list) Source Policy / Measure Description / Example Point Emission trading Fuel regulation Emission standard Voluntary agreement Emission allowance allocation for large sources Promotion of low-sulfur fuel Stricter standards for small industrial sources Monitoring and assisting voluntary program Area NOx source management Demand management VOCs management Promotion of low-sulfur fuel and natural gas Promotion of low-NOx boilers Eco-building certification Fugitive VOC regulation for industrial process On-road vehicle Clean vehicle End-of-pipe equipment Fuel standard Stricter emission standards for new cars Promotion of electric of hybrid cars Subsidy for DPF/DOC/SCR installation Stricter standards for vehicle fuel quality Congestion charge, parking regulation, upgrading public transportation service Off-road vehicle Stricter emission standards for new vehicle Stricter sulfur contents regulation for ship fuels Subsidy for DPF and SCR installation

Emission Reduction Potentials from SAQMP

Study Goal To estimate the health benefits from implementing the SAQMP in 2014 PM10 reduction Premature mortality (acute effect)

BenMAP Framework Data Input to BenMAP Results from BenMAP Data Input Population Data Population Estimates Geographic Grid Definitions Population Exposure Air Quality Monitoring Air Quality Modeling Health Functions Incidence Prevalence Adverse Health Effects Valuation Functions Economic Benefits

Analysis Materials Spatial Scope Seoul Metropolitan Area (Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi) Target pollutant PM10 Population data Age/sex categorized data of administrative boundaries (National statistics) Emission data CAPSS 2001 (Provided by Ministry of Environment) Air Quality data Monitoring data in 2001 MM5/CMAQ modeling data 2014 BAU (Business As Usual) 2014 Control (with SAQMP implemented) C-R Functions (acute mortality) =0.000157(RR=1.015, Seoul, 1999-2004) =0.000769(RR=1.025, Incheon, 1999-2004) (long-term effects =0.00463, Krewski et al, 2000) Baseline incidence death rates in 2005 (0.0050324)

Population (year 2001) 9,200 ~ 347,780

PM10 Distribution: 2001 Monitoring 49~88 ug/m3

Air Quality Modeling : MM5/CMAQ CAPSS, ACE-ASIA EMISSION MM5 (Meteorological Modeling System) Gas Phase chemistry

PM10 Distribution : 2001 Modeling 24~106 ug/m3

PM10 Distribution : 2014 BAU 27~122 ug/m3

PM10 Distribution : 2014 Control 12~54 ug/m3

PM10 (2014 BAU –2014 Control) 15~75 ug/m3

Health Impact Functions CHANGE in health effects (Δy) from the baseline to the control scenario CHANGE in pollution (ΔPM) from the baseline to the control scenario

Health Effects Change-required data Air Quality Change Effect Estimate = Incidence Population * * * Concentration Units: ppm, ppb, μg/m3 Measurements: maximum, average Measurement Intervals: hourly, daily, annual Data Sources: Air Quality Monitoring data (NIER) Air Quality Modeling (using CAPSS)

Health Effects Change-required data Air Quality Change Effect Estimate = Incidence Population * * * Pollution Effect Units: change in health effect rate per μg/m3, ppm, ppb; unit change in health effect per μg/m3, ppm, ppb Measurements Interval: hourly, daily, annual Data Sources: epidemiological studies

Health Effects Change-required data Air Quality Change Effect Estimate = Incidence Population * * * Health Effects Units: mortality: number of deaths per 100,000; individual risk of death morbidity: number of new bronchitis cases per 100,000; annual risk of an asthma attack; number of hospital admissions per 100,000 Measurements Interval: daily, annual Data sources: National Statistical Office; National Health Institutes; Published papers, etc.

Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)

Saved lives from (2014 BAU – 2014 Control)

Value of Statistical Life (VSL) Valuation Methods Revealed preference approaches Hedonic pricing (ex) labor market, property markets Averting behavior (ex) smoke alarms Stated preference approaches Contingent valuation method: Choice Modeling: Choice experiment(or Conjoint analysis) Resource Cost techniques Cost of Illness(COI) Human Capital Approach(HCA) Benefit Transfer The transfer of existing estimates (STUDY CASE) to a new study which is different from the study for which the values were originally estimated(POLICY CASE)

PPP: Purchasing power parity Benefit Transfer Benefit Transfer Method VSL(Korea, 2001) = VSL(USA,2000)*Radj Radj = (ppp(2000)kOREA /ppp(2000)USA )  [per capita GDP(2000)kOREA/per capita GDP(2000)USA]  [GDP deflator(2001)kOREA/GDP deflator(2000)KOREA] PPP: Purchasing power parity Point Estimate Distribution P1 (scale parameter) P2 (shape parameter) USA(2000,$) 6,324,101 Weibull 5,320,000 1.509588 KOREA(2001,$) 2,361,882 1,986,877,239

Summary PM10-related health benefits from implementing the SAQMP were analyzed using the BenMAP software More than 2,000 avoided premature deaths were estimated with putting the SAQMP into action (short-term effects only) The economic value of the deaths avoided was estimated to $4.8billion.

Thank you!! Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan