Brittany Goldrick Population, Health Annual Editions # 27 Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020s By: Neil Howe and Richard Jackson

Global Aging By 2020, demographic trends threaten widespread disruption The developed world has been aging, due to falling birthrates and rising life expectancy According to the United Nations Population Division- there will be more people in their 70s then in their 20s by 2030 European nations are on track to lose nearly ½ of their total current populations by the end of the century

The working-age population has already begun to contract in several large developed countries, including Germany, and Japan Rising healthcare costs will place a large burden on the government China, will face a massive age wave, that could slow economic growth and participate political crisis just as it is taking over America as the world’s leading economic power

Graying Economies Even at full employment, GDP growth could stagnate or decline The number of workers may fall faster then production rises Global Entrepreneurship Monitor’s 2007 survey of 53 countries, new business start-ups in high- income countries are heavily from the young community Old age benefits systems could average an extra 7% of GDP to government budget by 2030

Diminished Stature We may see a ride in cartel behavior to protect market share The rapid growth in ethnic and religious minority populations, could strain civic cohesion and foster a new diaspora politics The demand for low-wage labor, immigration at its current rate by 2030 could double the % of Muslims in France, and triple in Germany Many large European cities may be a majority of Muslims

Diminished Stature Continued.. America is also graying, but at a slower pace The United States is the only developed nation where fertility is at or above the replacement rate of 2.1 average lifetime births per woman The challenge facing America in the 2020s will be the inability of the other developed nations to lend much needed assistance

Perilous Transitions Since 1975, the average fertility rate in developing nations has dropped from children per woman In many of the poorest and least stable countries (especially in the sub-saharan Africa) the demographic transition has failed to gain traction, leaving countries with large bulge youth groups The demographic transition can trigger a rise in extremism International terrorism in developing nations is positively correlated with income, education, and urbanization

Storm Ahead China may be the first country to grow old before growing rich, due to their 1 child per couple policy Imagine workforce growth slowing to zero while millions of elders go without healthcare, or pensions China could move towards a social collapse Russia’s prime minister stated, “ the most acute problem facing our country today is our demographic implosion”

Storm Ahead Continued… Sub-Saharan Africa, which has the world’s highest fertility rates and is also ravaged by AIDS, it will still be struggling with large youth bulges If the correlation between extreme youth and violence endures, chronic unrest and state failure could continue throughout much of the sub- Saharan Africa and parts of the Muslim world through 2020 or longer if the fertility rates fail to drop One country is close to chaos, while another aspires to regional hegemony

Pax Americana Redux? During the Industrial revolution, the world grew faster then the rest of the worlds population, peaking at 25% of the world total in 1930 It is projected to decline still further, to 10% by 2050 According to the Carnegie Projections, the US share of total GDP will drop significantly, from 34% in 2009, to 24% in 2050 By 2050, only one developed country will remain, the US, still in third place We are moving into a US role in a world that will need America more, not less