U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities Science Question. What effective systems-based approaches can be used to identify and manage causes of degraded water resources to promote protection and recovery. Issue = Nutrients. Narragansett Bay and Watershed Sustainability – Demonstration Project Narragansett CHRP Meeting. March 21, 2013 The need is to inform governance decisions, at multiple scales affecting air, land, and water to achieve more “sustainable design solutions”

Research Task and Products Boundary Partners = Key Governance Institutions that have the authority and capacity to influence the trajectory of ecosystem change need improved, data, information knowledge delivery to adjust policies needed to achieve more sustainable systems solutions contributing to reduction in point and non-point sources of nutrients & co-pollutants affecting water quality Key Research Outputs & Products Quantitative models describing past, current and future nutrient fluxes and associated ecosystem level responses in the Narragansett Bay watershed and estuary ecosystem Trend analysis of stressors and ecological responses, particularly nutrients, in the Narragansett Bay Watershed Outcomes Use of approaches in regulatory an non-regulatory decision making affecting future trajectory of ecosystem change Decision Support Applications to inform decisions affecting nutrient flux and possible changes to systems (e.g., ecosystems, communities, and economies) 2 End Users

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development SSWR Research Priorities Trends in Nitrogen Loading: Coterminous U.S.A. Compton et al Ecology letters Aug;14(8): Compton et al Ecology letters 5X ▲ TN 4X ▲ TN Narragansett Bay Vadeboncoeur et al SSWR – 6.1 To manage change, it is important to understand sources of nitrogen, and how these have changed over time. State of RI legislature embraced a goal of dramatically reducing landside nitrogen loading to the Bay 3

Atmospheric deposition of Nitrogen, (CMAQ model) How will NOx source control will affect Northeastern U.S. 4

Blue area represent flow lines (NHDplus). SSWR 6.1 using 1:100K NHD to facilitate tech transfer 5

Things accomplished already Use and Refinement of Northeast SPARROW model TN and TP fluxes to characterize between variation in lake trophic status Northeast Lakes Flex application for GIS map server and analysis Doing additional GIS calculations related to cyanobacteria in lakes & reservoirs Statements of issues and needs from key Boundary partners (OW, EPA R1, RI DEM, MA DEP) Coordination with USGS. Some aspects could be scalable to Northeastern U.S. & subsequently used for U.S. East Coast in 2015 & beyond

EPA Narragansett Bay Modeling Hydrodynamics – FVCOM (Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) Water Quality – WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program) Point source reduction Future land use Climate change Shellfish restoration Shellfish Finfish Beaches Modeling Seagrass extent Light Depth Cumulative seagrass area Blue area represents the potential seagrass area if its maximum depth was 3 meters. Ecology Models

We are using the USGS SPARROW model for nutrient loading to the Bay – SPARROW models only total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), and gives only annual loads. SCENARIOS Future land use Shellfish restoration Climate change (temp, precip, wind, SLR, OA) Photo: The Nature Conservancy in RI Point source reduction Source: RIDEM Photo: RI Emergency Management Agency

FVCOM (Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) - Hydrodynamics Residence times, circulation patterns (collapsed in time/space) Executed with two modeling setups: EFDC (short-term) and FVCOM (Longer-term)

EPA’s WASP Water Quality Model RIDEM Fish seine stations NH 3, DO, chl a, TSS WASP can model individual nutrient species and multiple phytoplankton groups Models are integrated with available data

Seagrass Modeling TN, TP Loading Water Quality Affecting Optical Properties Chlorophyll-a CDOM Particulates TN, TP Conc. Depth of Colonization Objective Potential Seagrass Habitat Inputs from Watershed The relationship between nutrient inputs (N) and light quality/quantity for the seagrass Zostera marina – mediated through the relationship between N and chl a (phytoplankton) – is being developed. Light Depth Cumulative seagrass area Blue area represents the potential seagrass area if its maximum depth was 3 meters.

Using a food web-based model to examine the response to nutrient inputs effect of shellfish on nitrogen We are developing: 1) stressor-response relationships between eutrophication measures (nutrient load/DO) and benthic condition, and 2) population models for fish and shellfish

Working with Model Results Valuation of shellfish, finfish, and beaches Can we develop a formal application of existing data to quantify uncertainty and compare the trade-offs between bias and variance among models? We are examining information- theoretic inference and bayesian techniques. Narragansett Beach: 100 visitors/day x $49/visit (parking, food, other) = $49,000