UCLA Climate Research Lounge

What Climate Change Means for Southern California: Results From the Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region Project Alex Hall December 3, 2013

Long Beach Downtown LA Santa Monica San Fernando Valley San Bernardino Palmdale Ventura

Downtown LA Santa Monica Glendale Burbank Culver City Hollywood Sherman Oaks Pasadena Inglewood Downey South Los Angeles

We applied ~30 global climate models to the Los Angeles region

BaselineMid-CenturyEnd-Century Business As Usual Mitigation ppm Observed We projected future climate for 2 scenarios

Bakersfield Palm Springs San Diego Santa Barbara Los Angeles San Bernardino Average August Temperature 1981–2000 Temperature Average August Temperature 2041–2060: Business As Usual

Average August Temperature Temperature – –2060 Business As Usual At least 70% of Business-As-Usual warming is inevitable Mitigation

2041–2060 Business As Usual 100 days > 1981– days > Days Hotter Than 95 ⁰ F Per Year San Fernando Santa Monica Woodland Hills Baldwin Hills Downtown LA Studio City Long Beach Venice Watts Westwood Hollywood Porter Ranch Sunland El Sereno Pasadena Santa Ana Santa Clarita

Adaptation is inevitable. Water resources Fire SnowTemperatures Sea level rise Ecosystem effects But is it enough?

Average August temperature Temperature – –2060 Business As Usual Mitigation 2081–2100

California Climate Change Projections

For more on the Climate Change in LA Project:C-CHANGE.LA UCLA Climate Research Lounge

Thank You Department of Energy National Science Foundation Los Angeles Mayor’s Office Los Angeles Regional Collaborative Climate Resolve UCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability Special Thanks to: Beth Jines Jonathan Parfrey Paul Bunje Madelyn Glickfeld Mark Gold Glen MacDonald Stephanie Pincetl

UCLA Climate Research Lounge Credits Presentation design, maps and illustrations by Photography/Images: California Geological Survey Los Angeles Times Orange County Register Mark A. Johnson Accuweather.com IPCC Newser.com Associated Press/Huffington Post NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Xweather.org

Average Dec–Mar Precipitation 1981–2000 Precipitation Little change in precipitation by mid-century* Average Dec–Mar Precipitation 2041–2060: Business As Usual *Results are preliminary

Precipitation But other factors affect water resources  Snowpack  Evaporation  Streamflow

Snowfall Idyllwild Wrightwood Lake Arrowhead 87” 40” 87” Baseline Annual Snowfall

Snowfall Idyllwild Wrightwood Lake Arrowhead 52” 22” 53” Business As Usual Mid-Century

Snowfall Idyllwild Wrightwood Lake Arrowhead 62” 27” 63” Mitigation Mid-Century

Fire Acres Burned by Wildfires* –2000 MayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec 2041–2060 Business As Usual *Preliminary results from fire study conducted in collaboration with Yufang Jin and Jim Randerson at UC Irvine

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