National ESPON Conference 25 November 2010 in Bucharest ESPON Projects in support of Policy Formulation

Structure of Presentation Content ESPON Programme and Projects New evidence for policy developement of Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Territories –Europe navigating in a challenging, changing World –Polycentric Europe: Smart connected places –Diverse Europe: A cohesion challenge –Sustainable Europe Concluding advice for policy formulation

The ESPON 2013 Programme Role in Structural Funds : – Support policy development with evidence on European territorial structures, trends, perspectives and policy impacts Mission: – Provide comparable information on territorial dynamics that can reveal territorial capital and potentials Budget : 47 mill Euro Programme Priorities: – Applied Research defined by policy makers – Targeted Analyses with stakeholders – Scientific Platform with Tools – Capitalisation

Themes of Applied Research – Cities and Urban agglomerations – Development Opportunities in types of Rural Areas – Demography and Migratory Flows – Effects of Rising Energy Prices – Territorial Impact Assessment of Policies – Climate Change and Territorial Effects – Attractiveness – European land use – Territorial cooperation – Accessibility – Secondary growth poles – Specific types of territories – Innovation and knowledge economy – Continental structures and flows – Territorial and Regional sensitivity of EU Directives – Services of General Interest – European Seas in Territorial Development

Themes of Targeted Analyses – Agglomeration Economies – The Development of the Islands – Cross-Border Polycentric Metropolitan Regions – Convergence Regions’ Economies – Spatial Scenarios in Local-Regional Territories – Territorial Diversity – Potential of Rural Regions – Transnational Support Method for SF programmes – ESPON and TIA in practice – Cross-border Spatial Development – Regional Integrated Strategies – Polycentric Metropolisation in Central Europe – Territorial Performance Monitoring – Development conditions for Paris, Berlin, Warsaw – Migration and gender balance in rural regions – Smart Institutions for Territorial Development – Airports as Drivers – R&D Monitoring in regions

Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Territories

Challenge from global diversity in wealth will change and East-West differences within Europe remain significant Economic crisis has hit European countries and regions asymmetrically Regions with dependency of a particular sector or company suffered more while regions reliant on export-oriented industries and financial services seems less severely affected Major decision-making centres of many multi-national companies located are London and Paris Capital cities and larger urban areas also host such companies as do some rural areas, mainly in the core of Europe. Connecting places of Europe is important as accessibility and growth are correlated Cooperation of territories must increase creating larger markets, critical mass and better territorial balance Navigating Europe in a challenging, changing World

Integration in World City Network, 2008 European nodes in world economy crucial Location of international headquarters shows decision making power of places Highest number of subsidiaries are controlled from London and Paris As well in Geneva, Basel, Trieste, Arnhem, Lausanne, Clermont-Ferrand, Munich, Frankfurt, Edinburgh or Stockholm. Some quite small cities are important locations Companies in Ireland, Wales, Northern England, Portugal and eastern Europe are mainly controlled by headquarters in other countries.

Divisions in wealth in Europe’s neighbourhood EU & neighbourhood -East-West -North-South -Sahara Within Europe -East-West -Core-periphery -North-South

A more Polycentric Europe is feasible, also at European scale promoting metropolitan urban regions/cooperation Next Innovation cycle in Nano-, Bio-, Info-Tech and Cognitive sciences will benefit mainly Capitals and University cities and specialised urban regions Connections to global innovation networks important Smart connected places are not only urban as innovative rural regions profiting from global connectivity Places reachable for one day return business trips have an economic advantage Many urban centres along borders can benefit from larger functional areas Territorial impact assessment ex ante is important for finding synergies and unleashing territorial potentials Polycentric Europe: Smart connected places

Networking & physical meetings are important Places that can be reached for day-return business trips have an economic advantage Air connections dominant for international links High speed rail mainly relevant for domestic links (cross-border challenge) Clear European core-periphery pattern City network for one-day business trips, 2009

Rural areas and their urban inter linkage, Disparities decrease between major urban centres and their rural hinterland in Portugal, Germany, Belgium and Austria Disparities increase mainly in the Eastern European countries, the UK and Nordic countries

Structural types of rural areas, 2006 Agrarian Europe dominant in the East and present on the Iberian Peninsular Consumption countryside is expanding

Demographic change and immigration will foster imbalances between poorer and richer areas and highlight the question of need for immigration Scenarios 2050 show shrinking labour force in lots of regions, mainly to the deficit of regions in Eastern Europe Specific types of regions are diverse and the smaller and remote face problems of economies of scale due to limited accessibility For remote and sparsely populated regions links to nearest urban hub is often more important than European access Potentially rising energy prices will particular impact peripheral regions, places with extensive commuting patterns, energy intensive industries and housing stock, and may promote relocation Economic success of convergence regions is largely dependent of governance with human resources capable of delivering results Diverse Europe: A Cohesion Challenge

Change in working age population, Areas with the highest decreases in Bulgaria and East Germany Areas with the strongest increase in Spain, Ireland, Iceland, some regions in western France, and single regions in Portugal, Poland, Switzerland, the Benelux countries, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Scotland and Norway.

Expected territorial migration towards 2050 Most regions gain population due to immigration. In 24% of the regions the 2050 population would be higher by 30% or more compared to a non- migration scenario. EU15 regions mainly winners with some exceptions Most profound gains in Italy north of Naples, some south-eastern regions of Spain, southern France, and the east and west England. Emigration regions in the east, especially in Romania and Poland.

Intra-Europe migration flows, 2006/2007 Almost 2 million people a year move from one ESPON country to another Main axis of migration: Germany-Poland Spain-Romania Italy-Romania More geographically spread migration patterns: Netherlands, Latvia, France, UK and Sweden

EU currently depends on the ecological reserves of other parts of the world Regional effects of climate change range from considerable challenges to new development potentials Extreme weather events may have damaging effects on infrastructures and hamper economic development 70% of the largest European cities are located in areas below 10 metres above sea level underlining the importance of adaptation and mitigation for Europe’s economy Many regions perceived as peripheral have high potential to tap energy from wind and sun Innovative profiling of local/regional assets of attraction needs to be promoted Investment in a more resource efficient, greener economy is likely to be led by metropolitan regions, particularly in Western Europe and to disseminate from there Sustainable Europe

Ecological footprint, 2006 The EU has 7.7% of the world’s population. EU accounts for 16% of the world’s ecological footprint. In effect, the EU currently depends on the ecological reserves of other parts of the world.

Climate change in Europe, Diverse combinations of impacts in different parts of Europe For detailed explanation on the impact of the different regions, please consult page 92 of the ESPON Synthesis Report.

Solar and Wind Power potential, 2005

Concluding advice for Policy Formulation

Territorial diversity of Europe is an important asset for competitiveness, cohesion and economic recovery Different regions have different possibilities to deliver smart, sustainable and inclusive growth and contribute to economic recovery Competitiveness is vitally important, but energy security, climate change adaptation and mitigation, ecological footprint reduction, regional resilience and capacity to bounce back are increasingly apparent Modern place based policy formulation requires considering the larger territorial scale Territorial strategies and policies needs to be synergetic including all relevant sector policies Urban areas are home to main drivers of economic growth and innovation, the place of the sharpest social divides and critical for reducing the ecological footprint Rural territories can create development ESPON evidence is relevant at all policy levels – Use it. Advice for policy formulation

More information Thank you for your attention! All results from ESPON applied research and targeted analyses used for the report on evidence related to Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Territories can be found and downloaded from