US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Mark V. Lomanno President SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH.

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Presentation transcript:

US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Mark V. Lomanno President SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to February 2008

Total United States Room Demand Percent Change Jan 2003 – February 2008

Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to February % 5.7% OCC Declines Can be Joined by ADR Increases

Total United States Room Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – Pre 9/11 vs End Of 2006 Two Demand Declines….

Total United States ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – Pre 9/11 vs. End Of 2006 …. But Two Very Different Market Reactions

Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to February 2008 June % +5.5% Feb %

U.S. Industry Weekday/Weekend Occupancy Change November 2007 – February 2008 Weekdays = Sunday - Thursday

Top 25 Markets vs. All Other U.S. Rooms Sold vs. Room Revenue LTM February 2008 Rooms Sold % Room Revenue % Total Industry Sold = 1 Billion Roomnights Total Industry Room Revenue = $108 Billion

Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month Moving Average - Supply Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – February 2008

Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month Moving Average Demand Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001 Then: Visible Drop in Demand in Top 25 Markets

Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001 Then: Visible Drop in ADR in Top 25 Markets

Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month Moving Average - Demand Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008 Now: Demand for Top 25 Markets basically Flat

Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – February 2008 Now: ADR Currently Strong Across The Board

Exchange Rate Impact on 2007 ADR % Change Dollar % Change Euro % Change Boston, MA6.3%-2.5% Miami-Hialeah, FL11.6%2.3% New York, NY10.6%1.4% Orlando, FL-0.7%-8.9% Washington, DC-MD-VA3.7%-4.8% Top 25 Markets7.5%-1.4% All Other Markets4.4%-4.3% Total United States5.6%-3.1%

STR Chain Scales Selected chains from each segment Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont Upper Upscale – Embassy, Hilton, Marriott, Sheraton Upscale – Residence Inn, Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard Mid with F&B – Quality Inn, Holiday Inn, Ramada Mid no F&B – Comfort Inn, Hampton Inn, HI Express Economy – Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn

Chain Scale 12 Month Moving Average - Supply Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – December 2007

Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average - Demand Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001 Then: Visible Drop in Demand in UU Scale – “Top-Down Recession”

Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2000 = 100) January 2000 – August 2001 Then: Visible Drop in ADR in Higher End Scales

Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average Demand Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – January 2008 Now: No Slowing In Demand For Upper End – “Bottom Up Recession?”

Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2006 = 100) January 2006 – January 2008 Now: No Slowing in Rate Growth

Projections

Total United States Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Prior Year Feb 2008 Feb 2007 Change % Chg In Construction 198, ,413 26, % Active Pipeline 648, , , % Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

Number of Rooms U/C With Opening Date 13+ months out Under Construction Recorded in January ,900 Recorded in January ,800 Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline A Silver Lining….

Total United States Rooms Under Construction by Scale – In Thousands February 2008 Source: STR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

Total United States Annual Rooms Closed and 3 Year Moving Average 1990 – 2007

U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators – March F2009F Real GDP+2.2%+1.5%+2.3% CPI+2.9%+3.4%+2.4% Corporate Profits N/A -1.6%+6.0% Disp Personal Income+3.0% +2.1%+2.3% Unemployment Rate 4.6% 5.3% 5.4%

Total U.S. Supply/Demand Percent Change 2002 – 2008P

Total US Occupancy Percent 2002 – 2008P

Total U.S. Occupancy Percent Change 2002 – 2008P 20 Year Average: -0.1%

Total U.S. ADR Percent Change 2002 – 2008P 20 Year Average: 3.5%

Total U.S. RevPAR Percent Change 2002 – 2008P 20 Year Average: 3.4%

2008 Lodging Industry Takeaways Accelerating Supply Growth – Pipeline Attrition? Slowing Economy = Slower Demand Growth Top Markets may outperform Weak Dollar = U.S. Bargain Leisure feels greater impact than business? Revenue Management Discipline?