NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing 4pm June 6, 2013

Key Messages Heavy rain occurring today in Virginia. Tropical Storm Andrea expected to bring heavy rains to Eastern PA, southeastern NY, NJ, eastern MD and eastern VA Friday and early Saturday. Isolated locations are forecast to have minor flooding. Expect updates to river forecasts as conditions change through this event. MARFC to begin 24 hour operations 3am Friday.

Timing of rain & flooding Rain today but the heavier rains from Andrea will arrive Friday. Timing of any river flooding is Friday, Saturday & Sunday. This is the latest forecast for the path of the center of Andrea. Remember, storm impacts, particularly heavy rains and flooding can and will occur hundredths of miles from the storm path.

Rain on the ground The rain today is not related to Andrea, yet it is significant in western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Near 2” has occurred there since 7am today. Some specific reports: – 2.04” Lithia, VA (Botetourt County) – 1.86” Craigsville, VA (Augusta County) – 1.85” Trappers Lodge, VA (Bath County) – 1.75” Hot Springs, VA (Bath County) – 1.72” North Fork, VA (Botetourt County) – 1.70” Williamsville, VA (Highland County)

Additional Rain This is the 72 hour total rainfall expected. This is the entire event for Andrea. The rains from Andrea will occur on Friday. Heaviest amounts in excess of 3” are forecast for NJ and the mid & lower Delaware River Basin. On the following slide is a graphic showing the entire rainfall from Andrea across the U.S.

River Forecasts River Forecasts for the: Delaware, Passaic, Raritan, Potomac, Rappahannock & James River Basins are being updated this afternoon. Our Susquehanna forecasts from this morning are still good. Many points are expected to rise above their action or caution stages. Minor flooding is possible at isolated locations.

Flood Outlook The Flood Outlook looks at the possibility for significant flooding. Although our official forecasts are only calling for isolated minor flooding, there is enough uncertainty that you should prepare for the possibility of significant flooding in this region Fri-Sat-Sun. Headwaters and smaller streams are especially vulnerable to larger river rises.

MARFC Status MARFC plans to begin 24 hour operations 3am Friday. MARFC is actively coordinating with our NWS Weather Forecast Offices and partners.

Remember MARFC graphics & info do not contain the entire flood threat. See info from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office for watches & warnings, flash flooding, storm surge, etc..

Flood Inundation Maps Excellent resource to understand your flood risk. Can be used to plan evacuation routes & travel. Available at for these points: – Saddle River at Lodi, NJ – West Branch Susquehanna River at Jersey Shore, PA – Delaware River at: Matamoras/Port Jervis Belvidere Easton Frenchtown New Hope/Lambertville Riegelsville Stockton Trenton Others are available at

Need more info? Contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office – Binghamton, NY – Blacksburg, VA – Mt Holly, NJ – State College, PA – New York City, NY – Sterling, VA – Wakefield, VA

Find MARFC Online at: Homepage: Facebook:

Next MARFC Briefing The next MARFC briefing slide package will be sent Friday morning.